Attorney Mark W. Smith of The Four Boxes Diner has sounded the alarm, and possibly the bugle call, for the most important Second Amendment opportunity in years. In a recent video, Smith explains that two vacant seats on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit could drastically alter the direction of gun rights in America. With a potential to flip the court in favor of constitutional originalism, these empty seats aren’t just judicial vacancies – they’re powerful levers for reshaping the national debate on gun control.
Why the Third Circuit Matters – Even If You Don’t Live There
At first glance, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey – states covered by the Third Circuit – might not seem relevant to gun owners in other parts of the country. But as Smith makes clear, the Third Circuit could soon become ground zero for Second Amendment litigation. The reason? New Jersey is home to some of the strictest gun laws in the nation, and if the court flips conservative, it could start knocking those laws down. That, in turn, could set off a chain reaction that reaches the U.S. Supreme Court.
July 1: Oral Arguments Begin on AR-15 and Magazine Bans
The urgency behind Smith’s warning stems from a scheduled oral argument on July 1, 2025, before a three-judge panel in the Third Circuit. Two major cases are up for debate: Cheeseman v. New Jersey and a suit brought by the Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs. Both challenge bans on semi-automatic rifles (like the AR-15) and so-called large-capacity magazines. Smith describes the current panel as “between a coin flip and bad for the Second Amendment,” especially given the inclusion of Obama appointee Judge Schwartz.
The Big Picture: Setting the Stage for the Supreme Court
This hearing isn’t just about New Jersey’s laws. According to Smith, it may be the first time since Justice Brett Kavanaugh hinted in Bianchi v. Frosh that the Supreme Court is ready to hear a major Second Amendment case involving “assault weapons.” If this panel rules against gun rights, that opens the door to an en banc review by all judges in the Third Circuit, where the makeup of the court becomes critically important. That’s where the two empty seats come in.
Right Now, It’s 6–6 – A Rare Judicial Tiebreaker Moment
Smith explains that the Third Circuit is currently evenly split: six Republican-appointed judges and six Democratic-appointed judges. If President Trump fills those two vacancies with constitutional originalists, the balance would tip to 8–6 in favor of pro-Second Amendment judges. That majority could fundamentally reshape not only New Jersey’s anti-gun laws but also create the very circuit splits the Supreme Court looks for when deciding whether to take up a case.
Circuit Splits Are the Golden Ticket to SCOTUS
The Supreme Court doesn’t hear every case. In fact, it only takes a few dozen each year. One thing that almost guarantees the Court’s attention is a circuit split – when two different appeals courts issue opposing rulings on the same legal issue. Smith emphasizes that gun rights cases often don’t get this kind of split because the strictest gun laws come from deep-blue states whose appeals courts are already stacked with anti-gun judges. But the Third Circuit is different – it covers a blue state with unusually strict laws and has the potential for a conservative court majority. That’s a rare combo.
Smith’s Warning: Don’t Blow This Chance
Mark W. Smith published an article in The National Pulse outlining this exact scenario and why it matters so much. He says he’s personally alerted key figures in Washington to the opportunity and urges the Trump administration to choose strong, pro-2A nominees. He even floats hypothetical names like William Kirk of Washington Gun Law or attorney Tom Grieve, both known for their aggressive defense of gun rights. Whether those names are actually under consideration isn’t clear, but Smith’s point is: don’t squander this opening.
The Power of a Conservative Court Over an Anti-Gun State
One of the most fascinating dynamics here is geographic. If the Third Circuit flips conservative, it would be one of the only pro-Second Amendment federal courts overseeing a strongly anti-gun state like New Jersey. That means the court would be in direct contact with nearly every restrictive gun law imaginable – waiting periods, bans on AR-15s and AK-47s, sensitive places laws, and magazine limits. In Smith’s words, it could become a judicial wrecking ball for unconstitutional gun laws.
From Magazine Bans to Sensitive Places: Everything Could Be on the Table
According to Smith, this court would have jurisdiction over all of New Jersey’s firearm restrictions, many of which go far beyond federal standards. That includes registration requirements, concealed carry restrictions, and gun-free zone policies. If the court ruled against these laws, it wouldn’t just help gun owners in New Jersey – it would create direct conflict with courts in places like California and Massachusetts. That’s the circuit split the Supreme Court needs to finally settle some of these debates nationwide.
One Victory Could Lead to Many
If the Third Circuit becomes the first court to strike down laws like magazine bans or AR-15 prohibitions, that ruling could force the Supreme Court to finally address these issues head-on. As Smith puts it, “this is the opportunity of a lifetime” for the gun rights movement. The implications would stretch far beyond just one state – they could influence national gun policy for decades.
Why This Is So Fascinating
Here’s what really grabbed me: Smith isn’t just talking legal theory. He’s describing a rare convergence of politics, geography, and timing. You’ve got an anti-gun state stuck under the jurisdiction of a potentially conservative court. That just doesn’t happen often. Most conservative courts never see these kinds of gun control laws because they don’t exist in red states. But the Third Circuit? It’s a perfect storm – and if played right, it could completely change the momentum in the legal fight for the Second Amendment.
The Clock Is Ticking
As Smith says in his video, this isn’t just a theoretical moment. It’s happening now. Oral arguments are set for July 1, and the Senate still has time to confirm new judges. If the Trump administration moves quickly and wisely, this could be the breakthrough the Second Amendment movement has been waiting for. But if it fumbles the nominations or delays action, that window may close for good. Smith is urging everyone who cares about gun rights to pay attention – and after hearing his breakdown, it’s hard not to agree.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.