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SCOTUS Punts on AR-15 & Magazine Ban Cases—Here’s What That Means for Gun Owners

The Supreme Court released its latest order list on January 24, 2025, revealing which cases it will hear this term. Notably absent from the list were two significant Second Amendment challenges: Snope v. Brown, which contests Maryland’s AR-15 ban, and Ocean State Tactical v. Rhode Island, which focused on magazine capacity limits.

While the Court granted certiorari in other cases, these pivotal gun rights challenges remain unresolved. For gun owners nationwide, this delay raises critical questions about the future of firearm regulations.

Mark W. Smith’s Analysis of the Delay

Mark W. Smith’s Analysis of the Delay
Image Credit: The Four Boxes Diner

Mark W. Smith, attorney and host of The Four Boxes Diner YouTube channel, broke the news with an air of disappointment. He explained that the absence of these cases from the order list likely means the Court will not hear them this term, which concludes in June 2025. Smith described the development as “bad news” but clarified that it isn’t necessarily catastrophic.

According to him, the Supreme Court may still grant certiorari later, but the timing suggests this won’t happen until the next term, delaying any resolution until 2026.

Three Possible Outcomes for the Cases

Three Possible Outcomes for the Cases
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Smith outlined three potential paths forward: (1) outright denial of the cases, (2) a denial accompanied by a dissent from conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito, or (3) the Court granting certiorari for the 2025-2026 term. While Smith noted that the third option would still be a win for gun owners, it would push back any legal relief for those living under restrictive firearm laws.

William Kirk’s Sobering Outlook

William Kirk’s Sobering Outlook
Image Credit: Washington Gun Law

William Kirk, president of Washington Gun Law and another prominent voice in the gun rights community, offered a similar assessment. In his YouTube video, Kirk lamented the repeated delays, describing the situation as a “can being kicked down the road.”

He emphasized that even if the Supreme Court eventually accepts these cases, they are unlikely to be heard this term. Kirk predicted that the soonest gun owners might see a ruling would be the summer of 2026.

The Impact on Gun Owners in Restrictive States

The Impact on Gun Owners in Restrictive States
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Both Smith and Kirk highlighted the immediate consequences for gun owners in states with strict firearm laws. In Maryland and Rhode Island, residents remain bound by bans on AR-15s and high-capacity magazines, with no relief in sight. Kirk’s warning was particularly grim, noting that those living in “civilian disarmament states” could face years of continued restrictions. For many, this means navigating legal uncertainty while waiting for the Court to weigh in.

Why the Delay Matters

Why the Delay Matters
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The delay is significant not only for its impact on gun owners but also for what it suggests about the Supreme Court’s priorities. Despite its recent track record of siding with gun rights advocates, as seen in the Bruen decision, the Court’s inaction on these cases has sparked frustration among Second Amendment supporters. Both Smith and Kirk questioned whether the justices have the resolve to take on such politically charged issues.

Legal Nuances Behind the Cases

Legal Nuances Behind the Cases
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Snope v. Brown and Ocean State Tactical v. Rhode Island represent two critical fronts in the battle over gun rights. The former challenges Maryland’s ban on AR-15-style rifles, arguing they are “protected arms” under the Second Amendment.

The latter contests Rhode Island’s restriction on magazines holding more than 10 rounds, a regulation critics say infringes on self-defense rights. Both cases could set nationwide precedents, making the Supreme Court’s eventual decision – or lack thereof – profoundly important.

Speculation About the Justices’ Intentions

Speculation About the Justices’ Intentions
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One intriguing possibility raised by Smith and Kirk is that the Court’s silence might indicate internal deliberations. It’s possible some justices are drafting dissents to explain why these cases should be heard. If true, such dissents could serve as a rallying cry for future challenges. However, as Smith noted, there’s no guarantee the Court will take up the cases even next term, leaving gun owners in limbo.

Broader Implications for Second Amendment Law

Broader Implications for Second Amendment Law
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The outcome of these cases, whenever decided, could redefine the boundaries of Second Amendment protections. Both Smith and Kirk expressed confidence that a Supreme Court ruling on the merits would favor gun owners.

Smith argued that AR-15s and standard-capacity magazines are “ubiquitous” and should easily qualify as protected under the Heller and Bruen decisions. Yet, the question remains whether the justices will take up the mantle to clarify these issues.

Why This Matters Beyond Gun Owners

Why This Matters Beyond Gun Owners
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What’s fascinating about these cases is how they encapsulate the broader struggle between federal and state authority. These decisions aren’t just about guns – they’re about the balance of power and how much leeway states have to regulate constitutional rights. The Court’s hesitance to act could reflect a reluctance to wade into politically fraught waters, but that in itself is a statement. It’s a reminder that even the highest court must navigate the intersection of law, politics, and public opinion.

A Missed Opportunity for Clarity

A Missed Opportunity for Clarity
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In my view, the Supreme Court’s delay is disappointing because it prolongs uncertainty for millions of Americans. Gun owners deserve clear guidance on what the Second Amendment protects, especially in light of recent decisions like Bruen. By postponing these cases, the Court leaves the door open for inconsistent rulings across lower courts, creating a patchwork of laws that vary by state.

Looking Ahead

Looking Ahead
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For now, gun owners and advocates can only wait. Both Smith and Kirk emphasized the importance of staying informed and engaged, noting that more challenges are likely to reach the Court in the coming years. Whether it’s the cases out of Illinois or Washington state, the fight for Second Amendment rights is far from over. As Kirk put it, “Education is our most powerful act.” Understanding the stakes – and the legal process – is crucial for anyone invested in this ongoing debate.

This moment, while frustrating, is also a call to action. It’s a reminder that constitutional rights are not self-executing; they require vigilance, advocacy, and sometimes, patience.