New Poll Finds Being Pro-2A Is a Winning Strategy at the Ballot Box

Gun Owners of America’s Phil Reboli opened a recent episode of One in the Chamber with a dare to conventional wisdom: stop underestimating how central the Second Amendment is to voters. Citing a late-September Reuters/Ipsos survey, Reboli said Republicans now lead Democrats by four points on gun policy and by a commanding twenty points on crime. In his telling, those margins don’t just validate a philosophy – they reward a behavior: unapologetically defending the right to keep and bear arms. Whether you agree with his politics or not, the argument is crisp and politically relevant.

The Numbers That Shift Campaign Calculus

According to Reboli, the Reuters/Ipsos results signal more than a blip. He frames them as proof that “defending the right to keep and bear arms is not only good policy, but good politics.” He also claims they reinforce a broader trend: that the electorate still responds to a pro–Second Amendment (2A) agenda closely associated with Donald Trump. My take: even if you treat any single poll with caution, leads of +4 on guns and +20 on crime are the kind of directional data that consultants and incumbents actually use. They shape ad buys, stump speeches, and what gets highlighted – or dropped – from a candidate’s platform.

From Slogans to Substance

Reboli contends politicians once assumed that a few “heritage” lines about hunters and sportsmen would pacify gun owners. That era, he argues, is over. The modern gun voter expects votes, not vibes – committee fights, floor amendments, and concrete results. I think he’s onto something about issue intensity. The voters who donate, door-knock, and show up in off-years often care deeply about a small set of issues. If guns are one of them, candidates who waffle learn fast that soft words can be punished as hard betrayals.

The BSCA Backlash – A Case Study in Consequences

A centerpiece of Reboli’s case is the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA). GOA opposed it and, as Reboli tells it, warned Republicans that its language would enable an ATF push toward near–universal background checks and incentivize state-level “red flag” laws. His postmortem is stark: after BSCA became law, at least 16 of the 29 Republicans who supported it either lost to more pro-2A challengers or declined to run again. Correlation isn’t causation, but politically, that kind of attrition creates a chilling effect. It also becomes a parable campaigns repeat in green rooms: cross your base on guns, and the base may cross you off the ballot.

Who Today’s Gun Owners Say They Are

Beyond legislation, Reboli sketches a profile: gun owners who train seriously and see themselves as their family’s first responders. In his framing, the Second Amendment isn’t about hunting – it’s about preserving liberty and defending life. That posture shows up everywhere from the growth of training courses to the popularity of handgun optics and defensive carry gear. My read: this identity shift matters because it moves the conversation away from hobbies and toward security, autonomy, and competence – values that pollsters consistently rank as potent with swing voters.

When Policy Follow-Through Meets Politics

Reboli argues that Republican follow-through is paying dividends. He points to the party’s move this year to eliminate the $200 tax on items regulated under the National Firearms Act – short-barreled rifles and shotguns, suppressors, and other NFA items. He concedes it wasn’t the maximalist win (removing items from the NFA entirely), but calls it a meaningful step that signals Republicans are legislating to the priorities of the voters who put them there. As a political matter, incremental victories can be more valuable than symbolic bills; they give incumbents something tangible to defend.

Executive Signals and the Federal Footprint

Reboli credits Trump with setting the tone through an executive order instructing agencies to root out regulations that infringe on Second Amendment rights. He then highlights how that posture rippled even into Washington, DC – long a bastion of strict control – where, as he tells it, prosecutors under Trump’s DOJ declined certain charges for lawful carry and the city sped up issuance of concealed-carry permits. Whether you view those changes as overdue or controversial, they underline a point campaigns grasp: executive signals matter. They tell the bureaucracy what to prioritize – and tell voters what you value.

Crime, Credibility, and the Empowerment Frame

The most politically potent piece of Reboli’s pitch is the crime gap. A twenty-point Republican advantage on safety, he argues, stems not from embracing restrictions but from “empowering citizens” and focusing on criminals. That empowerment frame has rhetorical teeth: it casts responsible gun owners as part of the solution, not the problem. Strategically, if Republicans are winning “who keeps us safe?” they are winning a bread-and-butter test many persuadable voters use. The risk for Democrats is obvious: if gun control is framed as disempowerment, they have to work twice as hard to prove their policies actually reduce violence without criminalizing the conscientious.

The Perils of Half Measures

Reboli’s lesson for Republican officeholders is unsparing: half measures don’t mollify; they motivate opposition. He cites BSCA supporters’ fates as Exhibit A and urges lawmakers to embrace an unapologetic 2A agenda. There’s an additional strategic wrinkle here. In polarized environments, clarity beats compromise. Voters forgive disagreement more readily than they forgive perceived double-dealing. If your brand is pro-2A and you vote otherwise, you’ve given opponents within your own coalition a permission structure to replace you.

Polling Isn’t Destiny – But It Is Direction

Here’s the caveat section no strategist can skip. One poll is a snapshot: margins of error, sampling frames, and the weirdness of likely voter screens all matter. Regional dynamics do, too. A message that resonates in rural counties can grate in suburban swing districts if it isn’t adapted carefully. And crime is hyper-local: perceptions in Phoenix aren’t the same as perceptions in Portland. Still, Reboli’s conclusion holds as guidance, not gospel. If your voters prize 2A rights and public safety, prove your case with clean, comprehensible wins – and don’t assume a glossy ad will paper over a muddy voting record.

What a Winning 2A Playbook Could Look Like

Taking Reboli’s thesis seriously doesn’t mean shouting “shall not be infringed” and calling it a day. The durable political play is pairing rights with responsibility. That might mean championing faster permit processing and reciprocity and backing voluntary safe-storage tax credits, subsidized training, and tougher penalties for felons who use guns in crimes. It could include funding mental health crisis response without criminalizing ordinary ownership. Done right, this package says: we trust citizens, we punish criminals, we invest in competence. That’s a platform pro-2A voters can cheer – and fence-sitters can live with.

Deliver, Don’t Dribble

Phil Reboli’s message on One in the Chamber is ultimately simple: voters reward authenticity and results. If you campaign as pro–Second Amendment, govern that way; if you don’t, don’t expect grace from the people for whom this issue is a first principle. The Reuters/Ipsos polling he cited is a directional wind at Republicans’ backs on guns and crime. Whether it becomes electoral weather depends on what they do next – more concrete reforms, fewer mixed signals, and a steady insistence that safe, free communities are built by empowering responsible citizens. Agree or disagree, that’s a theory of victory with a track record – and an audience.

UP NEXT: “Heavily Armed” — See Which States Are The Most Strapped

Americans have long debated the role of firearms, but one thing is sure — some states are far more armed than others.

See where your state ranks in this new report on firearm ownership across the U.S.