On The Rubin Report, host Dave Rubin asked Miami Mayor Francis Suarez why Miami keeps trending safer while other big cities struggle.
Suarez answered with a challenge to the way gun violence is framed nationally.
According to Suarez, national gun-death rankings get distorted by a handful of blue cities with sky-high homicide counts.
He told Rubin that if you “pull out the top five or top ten blue cities,” the U.S. would drop near the bottom of the global gun-death list – “like 180 out of 200 countries.”
“Everybody in Miami has guns and we have the lowest homicide rate,” Suarez said. “So is it a gun thing or is it a social policy thing?”
That’s the mayor’s provocation. And he’s not shy about where he lands: policy beats rhetoric, and leadership beats slogans.
Suarez is pushing a provocative, subtraction-based stat. It’s rhetorically sharp but invites scrutiny because removing outliers changes any average. Still, the point he’s driving at is clear – policy environments matter more than national talking points.
Miami’s Safety Playbook, By the Numbers
Rubin asked for receipts.
Suarez pulled a ledger.
Miami began recording homicides in 1946, Suarez said, with 31 that year. The worst, 1980, saw 220.
He told Rubin the best year in the 1950s logged 24 homicides. In 2024, Miami recorded 27; in 2025, as of the interview, the city was at 23 with “the possibility of having the lowest year on record.”
For Suarez, those drops aren’t random. He credits three levers: low taxes, public safety, and innovation. He’s repeated the formula so often it’s practically a brand.
Lower the millage rate, keep police funded, and build an economy that rewards investment.
My take: You can argue causation six different ways. But Suarez is staking his case on a simple storyn- predictable governance breeds safer streets.
“Keep Taxes Low. Keep People Safe. Lean Into Innovation.”
Rubin pressed on the broader wins. Suarez described inheriting a “broken” city as a councilman, then tightening belts and rebuilding.
Miami “grew 150% in the last ten years,” Suarez told Rubin. He lowered the millage rate to the lowest level ever and rode the wave of Florida’s no-state-income-tax advantage.
As investment spiked, he said, city resources rose. That let Miami pay police better, address homelessness, and fund growth without sacrificing safety.
He told Rubin Miami now has the lowest homeless rate in 11 years, with 534 unsheltered people in the last census and a 13% year-over-year drop.
He says the city wants to be the first American city with zero unsheltered – and is closing in.
The feedback loop is the point. Investment funds services. Services protect investment. Residents stay and more arrive.
I’d say that growth can paper over policy mistakes – until it doesn’t. But if your homicide rate is falling while population and wages rise, you’ve earned the right to say your model is working.
No “Defund,” No “No-Cash-Bail,” No Chaos
Rubin asked about 2020 and the pressure to “go along” with national momentum on policing.
Suarez said Miami didn’t flinch.
“We never got into the ‘defund police’ nonsense,” he told Rubin. “We never got into the no cash bail nonsense.”
The policy line was blunt: zero tolerance for violence or property destruction, full respect for peaceful protest. Suarez says setting expectations early kept outside agitators away.
“When you’re clear,” he told Rubin, “the rabble rousers know they can’t create disorder.”
He credits leadership, clarity, and the support of higher offices for holding the line.
Rubin noted Florida’s quick responses to freeway blockages. Suarez agreed that state-level decisiveness matters and said Miami supported those actions.
Whatever you think of the phrasing, consistency matters in public safety. Cities don’t drift into stability; they set rules and enforce them.
Where the Stat Hits Hard – and Where It Needs Caution
Rubin let Suarez make his “take out the top blue cities” case twice. Suarez used it to argue that national gun narratives are skewed – and that local policy explains reality better than national averages do.
He tied it to quality-of-life metrics. Miami’s lowest unemployment, highest median wage growth, and “happiest” and “healthiest” rankings, he said, correlate with the decline in homicides.
“If you’re happy, healthy, and working, you’re not hurting people,” Suarez told Rubin. It’s a simplistic line, but it sticks.
Correlation isn’t causation, and “remove the worst cities” can be a parlor trick. But Suarez’s city-level claim is narrow and checkable: Miami’s homicides are historically low while gun ownership is common. That’s a concrete test of a policy model, not a national culture war.
Rubin pivoted to Florida’s property tax debate and asked where Suarez stands.
Suarez supports low taxes, but he flagged a red line: nearly 45% of Miami’s revenue comes from property taxes.
“If we had to reduce or eliminate 45% tomorrow,” he told Rubin, “how many police officers are we going to lay off?”
Cutting that deeply, he warned, risks the exact safety gains he’s touting.
Rubin floated a sales-tax bump focused on tourists.
Suarez said that’s the unanswered piece – and the conversation he wants to have.
He reminded Rubin the city once had to slash 20% in a single year to fix an imbalanced budget.
Hard-won solvency, he suggested, shouldn’t be risked for a headline.
Suarez’s brand is low-tax growth. But he’s also telling a conservative truth: if you defund your revenue base without a backfill, you eventually defund your cops.
Guns or Governance? Suarez Picks Governance
Rubin contrasted Miami’s Monday-morning calm with Chicago’s grim weekend tallies.
Suarez didn’t gloat; he contrasted governance choices.
He says Miami invited cops and residents from blue cities to migrate – and they came. He predicts even more demand if national policies shift further left.
The mayor’s core argument is tidy.
Suppose restrictive gun laws plus lenient criminal policy yield high homicides, and permissive gun culture plus strict order yields low homicides. In that case, the variable that matters is policy, not the mere presence of firearms.
Rubin framed it as a conversation you can test with a friend. “Watch your liberal friend’s face,” the segment title teases, after you drop Suarez’s stat.
That’s polemical framing from Rubin – it’s his show. But Suarez’s underlying claim is about governing inputs: policing posture, prosecutorial standards, tax climate, and economic opportunity.
Dave Rubin gave Francis Suarez a wide lane to make the Miami case: low taxes, strong policing, innovation, and clear rules.
Suarez drove it home with homicide numbers and a challenge to national gun narratives.
His subtraction stat is meant to shock and provoke.
It also invites deeper analysis – and that’s fine. Policymaking should survive scrutiny.
What’s undeniable is the story Suarez is selling: Miami tightened rules, funded cops, protected protest without tolerating chaos, cut taxes, attracted investment, and watched homicides fall.
If that’s true, it’s a model worth arguing about with actual data, not slogans.
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Image Credit: Survival World
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Ed spent his childhood in the backwoods of Maine, where harsh winters taught him the value of survival skills. With a background in bushcraft and off-grid living, Ed has honed his expertise in fire-making, hunting, and wild foraging. He writes from personal experience, sharing practical tips and hands-on techniques to thrive in any outdoor environment. Whether it’s primitive camping or full-scale survival, Ed’s advice is grounded in real-life challenges.