The gun industry is far from immune to the ups and downs of consumer behavior. Much like smartphones, cars, or sneakers, firearms go through trends driven by hype, performance, and, increasingly, price. Despite how personal and serious gun ownership is, it still follows cycles – and the latest sales data paints a clear picture: certain categories are struggling, hard. Whether it’s because of market saturation, evolving preferences, or economic headwinds, a lot of guns that were once hot are now collecting dust on store shelves.
Reliable Data Tells a Clear Story
To get a grip on what’s really going on, analysts rely on gun sales data from the National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers (NASGW) scope program that collects from dozens of firearm wholesalers and distributors across the country. That data covers about 65% of the entire U.S. market, making it a strong indicator of what’s moving and what’s not.
While most of the insights are geared toward helping retailers make smart stocking decisions, it also offers an unfiltered look at what buyers actually want. And right now, what they don’t want is just as important. Certain firearm categories are declining at alarming rates – and if you’re in the market, this could be a great time to take advantage of the slowdown.
Pocket Pistols Are in Freefall
Sales of ultra-compact pocket pistols have taken a nosedive – down a full 30% compared to the previous year. For a product once praised for its convenient size and discretion, this drop-off is steep. A small bump in average price (about 2%) hasn’t helped, but this trend appears to be about more than just affordability. Pocket pistols, while easy to carry, are notoriously hard to shoot well.
Their short barrels, minimal grips, and snappy recoil make them unpleasant at the range and challenging in a defensive scenario. It’s likely that many buyers who tried them in the past are now opting for something more shootable – and simply leaving the pocket-sized guns behind.
Subcompacts Are Sliding Too
Right behind pocket pistols are the slightly larger subcompact semi-autos. Sales in this category are also down nearly 30%, despite average prices dropping around 4%. It’s clear that even with discounts, subcompacts aren’t regaining their footing. The cause might be the rise of the “micro-compact” pistol – guns that offer near-subcompact concealability but with better ergonomics, more capacity, and easier handling.
Pistols like the Sig P365 have redefined the category, making older subcompacts look outdated by comparison. When you can get more rounds in a slimmer package that’s also more fun to shoot, it’s not hard to see why buyers are shifting away from traditional subcompacts.
Snub-Nose Revolvers Are Slipping
Revolvers have enjoyed a niche resurgence in recent years, thanks in part to a wave of new shooters looking for simplicity and reliability. But that renewed interest isn’t translating into sales for small-frame snub-nose revolvers. While overall revolver sales have held steady, the snubby segment is showing a decline. This might come down to changing carry habits.
Semi-autos now dominate the market for small, concealable guns, and they offer greater capacity in slimmer profiles. Buyers might still respect the snubby, but they’re evidently less interested in owning one – especially when so many compact semi-autos are easier to shoot and reload.
Full-Size Handguns Are Holding Strong
On the other side of the spectrum, full-size handguns are still performing well. In fact, they seem to be one of the only handgun categories not in decline. This could point to a shift in what buyers are prioritizing.
With more people getting into recreational shooting, training, and home defense, larger handguns are more appealing thanks to their better accuracy, smoother recoil, and higher magazine capacities. They’re not ideal for concealed carry, but they excel in nearly every other category. A slight 5% dip in average price has also made them even more attractive to cost-conscious buyers looking for the most gun for their money.
The AR-15 Market Is Oversaturated
Perhaps the most notable drop in the long gun world is the sharp decline in AR-15 sales. Often referred to in industry-speak as “modern sporting rifles” or MSRs, these semi-automatic rifles are down nearly 28% in sales – with ARs specifically responsible for 27% of that loss. While the AR-15 remains one of the most popular rifles in America, we may have hit a saturation point.
For years, manufacturers have churned out endless variants to meet demand. But now, many shooters who wanted an AR already have one – or two. Unless political panic buying returns, the AR market may be entering a cooling phase. Some manufacturers might even need to scale back production or diversify if this trend continues.
Semi-Auto Rifles in General Are Slowing Down
It’s not just ARs. Sales across all semi-automatic rifles are down nearly 20%. This includes tactical rifles, hunting semi-autos, and competition-focused platforms. While the reasons for this could vary, financial concerns likely play a major role. Semi-auto rifles tend to be more expensive up front, and many of the people who might have bought one in past years are holding off amid economic uncertainty. Others may be prioritizing more versatile or nostalgic platforms – a shift that’s reflected in the next trend we’ll cover.
Lever Guns Are Having a Moment
While much of the gun market is in decline, there’s one major exception: lever-action rifles. These classic firearms are experiencing a full-blown revival. Despite a 12% increase in average price, lever gun sales are up a staggering 57%. The reasons are multifaceted. Lever-actions blend nostalgia with practicality – they’re legal in more jurisdictions than ARs, appeal to both hunters and collectors, and now come in modernized tactical versions that are great for home defense. Whether it’s the Old West charm or the desire for something outside the AR mold, shooters are clearing shelves of lever guns faster than dealers can restock.
Pump Shotguns Are Losing Ground
The trusty pump-action shotgun, long considered the ultimate jack-of-all-trades firearm, is in trouble. Pump shotgun sales are down 19%, and prices are up a painful 21% on average. That’s a brutal combination. Tactical pump shotguns are faring even worse, with a 21% drop in sales and a 25% increase in price.
Many Americans already own one or more pump guns, so we might simply be seeing the effects of long-term saturation. Inheritance could also be a factor – as older generations pass on, so do their firearms, reducing demand for new ones. Add in economic stress, and it’s easy to see why new buyers are pausing on this category.
Double Barrels and Field Semis Are Holding Steady
Not all shotguns are suffering equally. Semi-auto shotguns in field configurations are actually seeing a 14% boost in sales, despite the overall category being slightly down. Likewise, double-barrel over/under shotguns are gaining ground, with sales up 23% and prices climbing 15%.
These guns represent a smaller slice of the market but seem to appeal to niche buyers – bird hunters, sport shooters, and traditionalists – who are still willing to spend. They’re not cheap, but they offer timeless appeal and utility that stands out in a market full of tactical black guns.
Are Prices to Blame, or Preferences?
Looking across all categories, it’s clear that prices are playing a huge role in shaping buying behavior. Many underperforming categories are also the ones where prices have climbed the most – pump shotguns, for example. But that’s only part of the story.
Consumer preference is evolving too. Shooters are gravitating toward more versatile, better-performing, or just plain more interesting guns. The rise of lever-actions and decline of pocket pistols shows that buyers want firearms that feel good to shoot, not just ones that are easy to carry. And with the micro-compact semi-auto revolution, there’s less reason to compromise.
What This Means Going Forward
If these trends hold, we can expect the firearms industry to make some changes. Manufacturers may start slashing prices, discontinuing underperforming models, or pivoting to meet the demand for more shootable, versatile guns. For buyers, that means deals could be coming – especially in categories that are overstocked. It’s also a good reminder to buy based on long-term utility, not just what’s hot this month.
Whether this downturn is short-lived or a sign of a broader shift, it’s a fascinating moment in the gun market. One thing’s for sure – today’s “worst sellers” might just be tomorrow’s best deals.
A former park ranger and wildlife conservationist, Lisa’s passion for survival started with her deep connection to nature. Raised on a small farm in northern Wisconsin, she learned how to grow her own food, raise livestock, and live off the land. Lisa writes about homesteading, natural remedies, and survival strategies. Whether it’s canning vegetables or setting up a rainwater harvesting system, Lisa’s goal is to help others live more sustainably and prepare for the unexpected.