On Bearing Arms’ Cam & Co, host Cam Edwards says New Jersey’s governor’s race is “virtually neck-and-neck.”
He frames it as a true toss-up, not a protest vote.
Edwards cites recent polling he’s been tracking on air. In his words, the margin is inside the error bars and “winnable” with turnout.
Guest Joe LoPorto of the New Jersey Firearms Owners Syndicate (NJFOS) agrees.
He calls it a “coin flip” week out from Election Day.
The names matter to gun owners, LoPorto stresses. He says Republican Jack Ciattarelli is running close against Democrat Mikie Sherrill in an open-seat contest.
Edwards adds that four years ago Ciattarelli came within a few points of victory. This time, the path looks clearer and the energy higher.
My read: when pro-2A activists say a blue state is in play, pay attention. That signal usually means they’re seeing real field data—not just vibes.
The Ground Game: Early Votes Are Ammunition
LoPorto brings receipts.
On Cam & Co, he lays out the nuts-and-bolts voter math NJFOS has been working all year.
Since the last gubernatorial race in 2021, he says registered Republicans have grown by roughly 200,000. That’s not a trivia stat – it’s a turnout target list.
He also highlights a 34% jump in GOP primary turnout over 2021. Competitive primary or not, that’s a real-world proof of life.
Then comes the nugget that perked Edwards’ ears: early ballot returns in key swing districts show 20–40% of GOP vote-by-mail coming from low-propensity “1-of-4” voters – people who typically only show up in presidential years.
If accurate, that’s movement from the hardest slice of the electorate.
LoPorto credits a year-long partnership with Scott Presler and Early Vote Action for the grind. He says the canvas isn’t theory; it’s doors knocked, calls made, and lists cleared.
Edwards admits he’s an Election Day traditionalist. But he says LoPorto’s explanation flipped a switch for him.
Vote early, and your name drops off every GOTV call sheet, Edwards paraphrases. That frees NJFOS and allies to chase the true “maybes” instead of pestering the already-committed.
I like this framing.
“Bank your vote so we can hunt bigger game” is the most practical pitch to skeptics I’ve heard yet.
Why a Pro-2A Governor Changes Everything – Fast
Here’s the pivot LoPorto wants every gun owner to hear. Even if Democrats keep the state senate this cycle, a pro-2A governor rewires the legal and legislative battlefield.
First, veto power. Edwards points to Virginia’s recent experience, where a governor’s veto stopped fresh gun control bills cold.
Second – and bigger in New Jersey – the Attorney General is appointed, not elected.
If Ciattarelli wins, he appoints the AG.
LoPorto says he has a personal pledge from Ciattarelli that the next AG will be a “pro-Second Amendment gun owner who respects the Constitution.” Cam Edwards emphasizes how consequential that could be.
Why? Because, as LoPorto notes, multiple 2A cases are percolating in district courts and at the Third Circuit. A new AG changes litigation posture, settlement appetite, briefing tone, and timelines – practically overnight.
You don’t need a new statute to get new outcomes.
You need a new client for the state’s lawyers.
From a strategy standpoint, that’s huge. It’s why NJFOS is pressing early voting and volunteer hours like it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter.
Down-Ballot Ripples and Local Wins
LoPorto explains New Jersey’s quirky calendar: this year is governor + the lower chamber (Assembly), while the state senate sits out.
To flip the Assembly, he says Republicans need 13 seats – a stretch, but not fantasy.
What’s realistic, he adds, is picking up several competitive districts where NRA- and NJFOS-rated “A” candidates are on the ballot. He frames those contests as the front line of practical 2A gains.
Edwards nods to NJFOS’s local work beyond November. He highlights the grassroots push to refund $150 of concealed-carry fees, which started, as Edwards says, “boots on the ground.”
LoPorto reports 11 municipalities have already adopted refunds, with a 12th in the pipeline.
He hints that after Election Day, more – and bigger – towns could move.
That’s what steady organizing looks like. Win the door-knock season, then go win Tuesday night, then go win city hall.
My take: the fee-refund campaign is smart, repeatable, and morale-building. Every check mailed back is a tangible reminder that activism works.
Beyond Jersey: Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maine
Edwards keeps one eye on his home turf in Virginia. He believes the Attorney General’s race is competitive and says some down-ballot contests have tightened.
His message to Virginia gun owners is the same: vote early if you can, and vote for sure. Turnout wins everywhere, not just in the Garden State.
LoPorto also flags an important item in Pennsylvania. He urges gun owners to vote “No” on judicial retention where appropriate, arguing those votes shape how statewide gun cases are treated for years.
Edwards tosses in Maine’s red-flag referendum, where he says anti-gun groups are pouring money into the “pro” campaign despite the Democratic governor’s opposition to that specific measure.
It’s another reminder that ballot language can move policy without a legislature ever meeting.
All three items back LoPorto’s big thesis. This isn’t a one-state sprint; it’s a national stamina test.
What Activists Can Do This Week (And Why It Matters)
LoPorto is blunt: do more than vote. He says 20 phone calls makes you more active than “a thousand percent” of gun owners.
An hour of door-knocking? Same story – you’ve already outpaced the average.
He also makes a counterintuitive ask of the Election Day faithful.
Vote early if possible – not to change your tradition, but to shrink the chase list for the final push.
Edwards, after hearing that, says he’s re-thinking his own habit. That’s a small but telling shift.
LoPorto’s close is practical. If you’re in New Jersey and want in, email NJFOS and they’ll “find a use for you.”
He says canvassing, phone banking, and neighbor-to-neighbor reminders are what win coin-flip elections.
From my chair, the logic holds. Close statewide races turn on marginal voters and operational efficiency; early ballots improve both.
The Payoff If 2A Voters Show Up
Edwards puts a fine point on the prize. A Republican governor in New Jersey can veto gun control bills and appoint a pro-2A Attorney General.
LoPorto says that AG shift alone could accelerate or reshape multiple ongoing court fights.
Faster relief, better settlements, stronger briefs – those are real downstream effects.
Even without flipping the senate this cycle, the entire playing field tilts.
Suddenly, the default answer to new restrictions is “no,” and the state’s litigation posture stops trying to stretch Bruen.
That’s not abstract. That’s policy you feel at the counter and in the courtroom.
Cam Edwards gives the megaphone and the urgency. Joe LoPorto supplies the numbers and the marching orders.
If you’re in New Jersey, bank your vote now so NJFOS can spend this week harvesting the hard-to-reach voters. If you’ve got an hour, give an hour – on a phone, at a door, or in your group chats.
If Jack Ciattarelli wins, LoPorto says the AG will be a constitutionalist gun owner – a commitment he says the candidate made directly to him. Edwards calls that outcome a “game-changer,” and he’s right.
Neck-and-neck races are decided by who shows up early and who shows up twice – once with their own ballot, once with a neighbor.
That’s the math. That’s the mission.
And this week, that’s the difference between an anti-gun AG and a pro-2A reset in one of the toughest states in the country.
A former park ranger and wildlife conservationist, Lisa’s passion for survival started with her deep connection to nature. Raised on a small farm in northern Wisconsin, she learned how to grow her own food, raise livestock, and live off the land. Lisa is our dedicated Second Amendment news writer and also focuses on homesteading, natural remedies, and survival strategies. Lisa aims to help others live more sustainably and prepare for the unexpected.
