A winter forecast doesn’t usually go viral unless it says something big. Meteorologist Max Velocity, host of Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, is saying something very big.
In his latest extended outlook, Velocity warns that the 2025–2026 season “strongly favors repeated major snow events” across large portions of the United States.
He’s not just talking snow totals – he’s flagging ice storms, brutal cold snaps, and a jet stream setup that could churn out one disruptive system after another.
This isn’t a garden-variety update. It’s a call to prepare.
According to Velocity, the ingredients are lining up in a way that winter weather lovers dream about and commuters dread. I think his framing is smart: he begins by defining “normal,” then explains precisely how this year could break the mold.
That contrast helps you feel the lift from routine winter to memorable winter.
What’s Driving The Hype
Max Velocity centers his forecast on pattern physics, not hype. The headline driver, he says, is a fading El Niño leaning toward La Niña-like conditions, paired with high-latitude blocking over Greenland and the Arctic.
That cocktail shoves the polar jet farther south while keeping the subtropical jet active – exactly the setup that keeps storms frequent and well-supplied with moisture.
When those two jets phase, you get classic “battle zone” storms: warm, juicy Gulf air slamming into entrenched Arctic air.
Velocity argues that this winter’s battle line will often drape across the Central U.S., a corridor notorious for heavy snow, corridor-wide icing, and even severe weather embedded on the warm side.
My take: the pattern logic tracks. A south-displaced polar jet plus an energized subtropical stream is the recipe behind many of our most impactful winters. If blocking verifies, storm tracks linger, and that’s how you stack event after event.
Who Gets Buried, Who Gets Skipped
Velocity slices the country into tiers by snowfall risk. His broad-brush message is blunt: if you live from the northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast, plan for more snow and a longer season.
He cites a 6–12 inch surplus versus normal for the north-central U.S., the Ohio Valley, and much of the Northeast—driven by cold air availability and frequent synoptic setups, including potential Nor’easters.
He then elevates the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the top tier: 12–24 inches above average, with single storms capable of dumping 18 inches or more.
That emphasis on the Great Lakes makes sense. A deeper, colder air mass overlain by frequent clippers and panhandle hooks could augment synoptic snow with lake enhancement and lake-effect bursts. Velocity doesn’t overcomplicate it—cold plus moisture equals production.
The West is another story. West of the Sierra Nevada, he warns of a milder, drier tilt, even to the point of zero snow events in some coastal and desert locales. In the Sierra specifically, he flags a 24–36 inch deficit relative to average. That’s noteworthy for water supply conversations as much as powder days.
In the Southern Plains, Deep South, and parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Velocity plants a big “wildcard” sign.
He sees a classic boom-or-bust profile: one or two high-impact winter storms and ice events could hit – or the region could skate by with just a couple of light episodes. That’s how southern winters work; huge swings ride on subtle track wobbles and marginal temperatures.
Ice: The Silent Threat
Snow grabs headlines, but ice is the grid killer. Velocity leans into that harder than most seasonal outlooks, and he should – these are the events that turn routine disruptions into week-long recovery efforts.
He lays out three ice-risk zones:
- A broad swath from the Rockies to the East Coast with enhanced icing potential thanks to frequent warm-over-cold setups.
- A “pink region” – including the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and as far south as Oklahoma and Arkansas – with the likelihood of multiple ice events, one or two possibly major.
- A “purple region” focused on the central Plains—Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska – where he has highest confidence for at least one to two significant ice storms plus several smaller icing episodes.
If you’re in those zones, plan beyond snowblowers. Think tree trimming, generator readiness, battery backups, and work-from-home contingencies. A half inch of glaze, the amount Velocity highlights, is enough to snap limbs and take down feeders.
The Cold Shots To Watch
Velocity’s temperature message is crisp: the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest should brace for multiple Arctic blasts, with wind chills rivaling last year’s eye-watering readings – -60° to -70°F in extreme cases.
The farther south you go, the less likely deep Arctic air makes a sustained visit. Still, his outlook allows for brief sharp cold snaps that can dive into Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia.
That southward reach matters. Even a 36-hour cold shot overrun by Gulf moisture is enough to turn Atlanta, Dallas, or Little Rock into an ice rink.
I agree with Velocity here: the frequency of northern cold is the story up top; the timing of cold relative to moisture is the story down south.
Every blockbuster winter has an analog, and Velocity points to 2013–2014. That season featured a similarly configured La Niña-leaning background, a stout polar jet, and recurring high-latitude blocking.
The result: crippling ice across the central U.S., well-above-average snow in the Midwest and Ohio Valley, and multiple southern snow/ice episodes.
Analogies aren’t guarantees, but they’re useful mental models. If we see the same jet alignment – polar stream digging and subtropical moisture feeding – then the storm cadence can echo: clippers in between, big phasers every couple of weeks, and periodic East Coast cyclogenesis when the timing clicks.
Velocity is careful not to promise a carbon copy; he’s arguing for family resemblance, not a remake.
How To Use This Forecast
Seasonal outlooks are strategic, not tactical. Max Velocity is giving you risk contours, not next Tuesday’s snow map. That’s valuable if you translate it into choices now.
For the snow-favored North (Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, interior Northeast), front-load your winterization: roof and gutter checks, snowblower service, plow contracts, road salt supply, and commuter flexibility for heavy-band days. Businesses should eye inventory buffers and remote work plans for multi-day storms.
In the ice-favored corridor (central Plains to the Ohio Valley), the priority is grid resilience and mobility backup: trim trees, harden networks, stock battery packs, gas for generators, and non-perishables. Practice no-travel decisions early – freezing rain doesn’t forgive.
For the South’s wildcard zone, think scenario planning. A quiet winter requires little; a single major ice event can be a city-stopper. Have de-icer, insulation for outdoor spigots, and a plan to shift to remote learning/work with short notice.
And everywhere: remember that ice storms and severe weather can co-exist in these patterns. Velocity notes the potential for embedded severe thunderstorm threats on the warm flank of big winter systems. Don’t let the calendar dull your tornado awareness.
Max Velocity’s forecast stakes out a bold, well-argued position: a stormy, high-impact winter with above-normal snow for many in the North and meaningful ice risk along the nation’s midsection. He grounds it in jet dynamics, ENSO evolution, and high-latitude blocking – then translates that into regional, practical expectations.
I appreciate that he keeps uncertainty where it belongs. The West Coast looks quieter; the South is a swing state; the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest are the bullseye. That’s honest seasonal meteorology.
If you want the full deep dive, watch the complete update on Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, where he’ll continue to track storm-by-storm realities as we move deeper into the season.
Until then, consider this your winter warning: the atmosphere is loading the dice. Whether you love snow days or loathe them, this is the year to be ready.
UP NEXT: “Heavily Armed” — See Which States Are The Most Strapped
Image Credit: Survival World
Americans have long debated the role of firearms, but one thing is sure — some states are far more armed than others. See where your state ranks in this new report on firearm ownership across the U.S.
Raised in a small Arizona town, Kevin grew up surrounded by rugged desert landscapes and a family of hunters. His background in competitive shooting and firearms training has made him an authority on self-defense and gun safety. A certified firearms instructor, Kevin teaches others how to properly handle and maintain their weapons, whether for hunting, home defense, or survival situations. His writing focuses on responsible gun ownership, marksmanship, and the role of firearms in personal preparedness.