A busy stretch of weather is locking in across the United States.
In his November 19 forecast on the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, meteorologist Max Velocity laid out a week that starts with storms and ends with a sharp blast of winter.
He says two separate storm systems will bring rounds of rain and severe weather to the southern U.S., followed by a major pattern flip that could deliver an arctic blast and some snow right around Thanksgiving.
If you’ve been enjoying warmer-than-normal temperatures, he’s basically saying: enjoy them now, because they’re on borrowed time.
First Storm: Messy Rainmaker With Some Severe Risk
Max Velocity starts by focusing on a large storm system currently spinning over the Desert Southwest.
He explains that this system is already drawing in “a ton of moisture” from the Pacific into New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado, setting up a soaking rain event over the next 24 to 36 hours.
From there, the storm shifts east into the southern Plains.
According to Max, Texas and Oklahoma will be the main focus for strong thunderstorms as that system moves out of the Southwest.
He says the primary threats will be damaging winds in the 60–70 mph range, quarter to half-dollar-size hail, and “maybe a tornado or two.”
However, he’s quick to point out that this storm has “downtrended substantially” compared to earlier model runs.
It was originally expected to be a much more powerful event but now looks more like a messy, disorganized rainstorm with scattered severe storms instead of a full-on outbreak.
In plain terms, he calls that good news: less risk of widespread flooding and less chance of big, destructive tornadoes.
Storm Track: From Texas To The Ohio Valley
As Max Velocity walks through the short-term, he notes that the first storm doesn’t just stop in Texas and Oklahoma.
By Friday and Saturday, he expects it to move into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic, spreading more rain into those regions.
He reminds viewers that a weak system moving through the Mid-Atlantic already sparked a small severe event the day before, including at least one tornado warning in far western Kentucky.
That earlier event was brief and not strong enough for him to go live, but it’s a reminder that even “weak” systems can still spin up surprises.
For Friday, Max says the severe threat looks fairly limited.
Strong storms are possible from Kentucky down to the Gulf Coast, but he doesn’t expect a big outbreak.
Instead, it’s more of a heavy rain and “few strong storms” setup as the first storm gradually exits.
Second Storm: More Serious Severe Threat Early Next Week
The story doesn’t end when the first system clears out.
Max Velocity says another big storm is projected to form in the Desert Southwest and just off the coast of California by late weekend.
He believes this second storm has more potential to produce severe weather than the first one.
Right now, he stresses, the details are still uncertain.
But his early thinking is that scattered severe storms could develop across Oklahoma, Texas, and into the Mississippi River Valley on Monday and Tuesday.
He mentions that these storms would again feature the typical late fall threats: damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two.
Max plans to keep an eye on that setup, since strong systems coming out of the Southwest into warm, humid air over the southern Plains often have room to intensify.
It’s the kind of pattern that can quickly ramp up if the ingredients line up just right.
Thanksgiving Arctic Blast: 20–30 Degrees Colder
The bigger, longer-range story is the dramatic pattern change that Max Velocity says will arrive just in time for Thanksgiving.
He explains that by the middle of next week, the polar jet stream will dip south out of Canada and send a surge of arctic air into the United States.
By Wednesday and Thursday, that colder air begins to spill into the northern tier states, tied to a storm tracking near Minnesota.
But the real punch comes on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Max says temperatures could fall “20 to 30 degrees below average” across a huge swath of the central U.S., including Kansas, the Dakotas, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
That’s the kind of drop you feel immediately.
He compares the potential cold to what many areas saw back in February of this year, calling it a true arctic blast, not just a minor cool-down.
By Friday and Saturday, he expects that cold air to push into the East Coast as well, making the holiday weekend feel much more like winter than fall.
For now, he emphasizes that the exact intensity of the cold is still somewhat uncertain, but he’s “growing more confident” that the pattern itself – arctic air flooding south – is locked in.
From a practical standpoint, this is the part of the forecast where people need to start thinking ahead.
Holiday travel, outdoor football games, parades, and family gatherings may be happening in air that’s shockingly colder than what many have been used to so far this month.
Snow Chances: Light For Now, More Later
So what about snow?
Max Velocity does see some opportunity for winter weather, but he pumps the brakes on the idea of a giant Thanksgiving snowstorm.
As the midweek storm passes near Minnesota, he says some snow is possible across the very far northern Plains and the upper Midwest late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Right now, he expects that to be a light event – “nothing more than a coating to maybe a couple inches” in most areas.
When the arctic air spills in behind that system on Thursday and Friday, he notes that it’s actually a pretty dry air mass.
That means a lot of cold, but not a lot of moisture to work with.
In other words, many places will get the chill without the snow.
If you’re a snow lover, he doesn’t want you to totally lose hope though.
Max says he expects snow chances to increase as we head into the first week or two of December, with “multiple shots of arctic air” and more opportunities for wintry systems.
The pattern he’s describing is classic early winter: first the cold air establishes itself, then storm tracks start to interact with that cold, and that’s when the more widespread snow threats tend to show up.
Severe Weather Details: Who Faces The Biggest Risk?
Max Velocity finishes his forecast by zooming back into the near-term severe outlook.
For today, he says the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk (1 out of 5) stretching from Joplin, Missouri, back through much of Texas, including the Dallas–Fort Worth area.
He expects today’s storms to be scattered and disorganized, mainly featuring hail and damaging winds.
A brief tornado or two can’t be ruled out, particularly in parts of West Texas near and south of Abilene, especially around and just after sunset.
Tonight into Thursday morning, he anticipates coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase across Oklahoma and Texas.
That’s when the hail and wind risk could tick up a bit, and he says he “wouldn’t be surprised” if a marginal risk area gets added for parts of southeastern Oklahoma.
Through Thursday, Max notes the rain shield grows broader and heavier, with storms continuing across Texas.
He even highlights one model run that shows a possible supercell developing just outside the Dallas–Fort Worth area Thursday afternoon, which could briefly spin up a tornado if it materializes.
Late Thursday into early Friday, storms sag south toward the Gulf Coast, with heavy rain raising concerns for localized flooding in southeast Texas north of Houston.
By Friday, the severe threat shifts more toward general strong storms across the Southeast, while the main storm continues its march toward the Ohio Valley.
Max’s overall message on severe weather is cautious but not alarmist.
He keeps stressing that the risk is “lower than it could be” and that this first storm has trended weaker, but he still encourages people in the risk areas to stay weather-aware, especially overnight when storms can sneak up on sleeping communities.
Big Picture: From Storms To Winter In Just One Week
Putting it all together, Max Velocity paints a picture of a country going through a rapid seasonal gear shift.
First, a weaker-than-expected storm brings rain, pockets of severe weather, and some flooding concerns from the Southwest into Texas, Oklahoma, and eventually the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
Next, a second, potentially stronger storm early next week may bring another round of severe weather to the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
And then, just as people start prepping turkeys and packing suitcases, the polar jet dives south, unleashing an arctic blast that could send temperatures 20–30 degrees below normal across the heart of the country and spread cold all the way to the East Coast.
Snow lovers get a small appetizer in the far northern Plains and upper Midwest, with Max hinting that the main course of winter weather is more likely to arrive in early December.
If you follow his advice, this is the week to use the mild weather to get ready: winterize, plan for colder holiday travel, and keep an eye on local forecasts as the storms and the cold front march east.
Because based on Max Velocity’s latest forecast, the quiet, warm version of November is just about over.
Raised in a small Arizona town, Kevin grew up surrounded by rugged desert landscapes and a family of hunters. His background in competitive shooting and firearms training has made him an authority on self-defense and gun safety. A certified firearms instructor, Kevin teaches others how to properly handle and maintain their weapons, whether for hunting, home defense, or survival situations. His writing focuses on responsible gun ownership, marksmanship, and the role of firearms in personal preparedness.
