Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the latest long-range El Niño modeling has strengthened in a way that could have major implications for the 2026 hurricane season and an even bigger influence on the winter pattern of 2026 into 2027.
In a new forecast on the JustWeather YouTube channel, Kegges said the latest model guidance for El Niño has “exploded,” with a growing signal for an unusually strong event developing in the equatorial Pacific. While long-range climate forecasts always carry uncertainty, he said the new projections are not appearing in isolation because the ocean itself is already showing signs that support the idea of a powerful El Niño forming.
The key message, according to Kegges, is that the atmosphere and ocean may be moving toward a setup that favors a quieter Atlantic hurricane season by storm count, a much more active Pacific hurricane season, and a winter pattern that could send repeated moisture across California, the southern United States and especially Florida.
Models Point Toward A Potentially Historic El Niño
Kegges began by showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the region meteorologists monitor closely when identifying El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions.
According to Kegges, the colder blue shading that had been present in earlier periods is now gone, while warmer orange coloring has taken over the key region. That warming, he explained, is the foundation of the El Niño signal because the phenomenon is defined by above-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
To give viewers perspective, Kegges compared the latest forecast signal with some of the strongest El Niño events in the modern record. He said the 2015-2016 El Niño peaked around 2.75 degrees Celsius above normal in the key Pacific region, while the highly impactful 1997-1998 event reached roughly 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal.
Then he pointed to the European ensemble forecast, noting that many of the individual model members were now climbing above 3 degrees Celsius, which would exceed the strongest values seen in the modern record going back to the late 1800s.
That does not mean the outcome is guaranteed. Kegges emphasized that models are “guidance, not gospel,” and he acknowledged the spring predictability barrier, the well-known forecasting problem that can make El Niño and La Niña projections less reliable during spring and early summer.
Still, he said this situation stands out because the models are being supported by what he called the “ground truth,” or more accurately, the ocean truth.
The Warmth Below The Surface Matters
Kegges said he has been watching a large bubble of warmth that began in the western Pacific and has been shifting toward the eastern Pacific, where El Niño events are most clearly measured.
That subsurface warmth, in his view, is one of the biggest reasons to take the forecast seriously.
Using ocean temperature plots, Kegges said the surface of the Pacific is already warming, but the more dramatic signal is below the surface, where water roughly 100 meters down is running five to six degrees Celsius above normal in some areas.
He explained that this deep warmth is important because it can work its way upward, allowing the surface warming to intensify quickly as trade winds weaken and the warm water shifts back toward South America.
Kegges also noted that the 20-degree Celsius layer in the ocean is much deeper than usual, another sign that the warmth is not shallow or fragile. In plain terms, this is not just a thin layer of warm water sitting at the surface; there is a much deeper reservoir of unusually warm water available to feed the developing El Niño.
That detail matters because shallow warm anomalies can fade quickly, while deeper warmth can help sustain and strengthen an event over time.
What It Could Mean For Hurricane Season
For the 2026 hurricane season, Kegges said the most likely impact is a quieter Atlantic basin in terms of total named storms, but he cautioned that “quieter” does not automatically mean harmless.
During El Niño years, stronger wind shear often develops across the Atlantic, especially in the main development region and the Caribbean. That wind shear can disrupt tropical systems before they organize, limiting the number of long-track storms coming from the deep tropics.
Kegges said the European forecast reflects that idea, showing below-normal tropical cyclone density across much of the Atlantic, while the eastern Pacific and western Pacific show stronger signals for above-normal activity.
He said the European model is forecasting about 13 named storms in the Atlantic, below the average of roughly 14.5. At the same time, the model points to above-normal activity in the eastern Pacific and western Pacific, where warmer waters and more favorable rising motion may support more development.
That makes sense meteorologically, Kegges explained, because the atmosphere often balances activity between basins. When the Pacific is especially active, the Atlantic is often suppressed by wind shear and sinking air.
Even so, Kegges warned that the Atlantic can still produce dangerous “homegrown” storms close to the United States. He pointed to Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Michael in 2018 as examples of highly impactful storms that occurred in El Niño years.
That is an important distinction. A season with fewer storms can still produce one catastrophic landfall if a storm forms close to land, strengthens quickly and gives coastal communities little time to prepare.
A Wet Winter Signal For The Southern U.S.
Kegges said the winter of 2026-2027 could be even more interesting than hurricane season because strong El Niño winters often activate the subtropical jet stream.
That jet stream pattern can pull Pacific moisture across California, the Desert Southwest, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, Florida and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. According to Kegges, the long-range climate model is already showing a strong wet signal for that exact corridor.
He said December 2026 is projected to be much wetter than normal across Florida and the Southeast, which he described as a classic El Niño calling card. By January 2027, he said the wet signal grows stronger in Florida while also showing beneficial rainfall across California, the southern Plains, the Desert Southwest and the northern Gulf Coast.
If that pattern verifies, it could be good news for drought-stricken areas in parts of the West and Southwest, though it may also raise flood concerns in places that receive repeated storm systems.
Kegges also said strong El Niño winters can bring a heightened severe weather risk to Florida and parts of the far Southeast during the cool season, especially from November through early March. That does not mean severe storms happen every day, but the pattern can create more opportunities for strong low-pressure systems and unstable air to overlap in areas that are not always front and center during winter.
Drier And Warmer Risks Elsewhere
While the southern tier of the United States may see more moisture, Kegges said other regions could trend drier, including parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Appalachians and sections of the West, which also fits the typical El Niño pattern.
Globally, he said the impacts could be more serious.
Kegges pointed to South America as one of the areas most directly affected by a strong El Niño, especially because the warm water shifts toward the coast of Peru and Ecuador. That warming can disrupt fisheries, a problem that played a role in how El Niño was first recognized by fishermen long before modern satellites and ocean monitoring.
He said flooding can become a major concern in Peru, Ecuador and northern Chile, while southern Brazil and northern Uruguay may also see increased rainfall. At the same time, he said parts of the Amazon may face drought.
Australia often sees the opposite side of that pattern. As warm water and thunderstorm activity shift away toward the central and eastern Pacific, Kegges said drought conditions can become more likely in parts of Australia, raising wildfire risk and increasing the potential for significant heat waves.
A Forecast With Big Stakes, But Still Uncertainty
Kegges was careful not to present the forecast as settled fact, but he made clear that the signal has strengthened repeatedly rather than backing off.
He said JustWeather has been watching the possible El Niño development for months, and each new round of data has continued to show a strong event becoming more likely. In his words, the signal has not weakened; it has “gotten stronger each time.”
That persistence is why the forecast deserves attention.
At the same time, there is still a difference between a strong signal and a guaranteed outcome. Seasonal climate models can change, especially when forecasting several months out, and the final strength of an El Niño depends on how the ocean and atmosphere interact over time.
Still, if the deeper ocean warmth keeps surfacing and the trade winds continue to weaken, the developing El Niño could become a dominant driver of global weather later this year.
Kegges also said he would not be surprised if 2027 ends up challenging or setting global temperature records, because strong El Niño events tend to release a large amount of ocean heat into the atmosphere.
For now, his forecast leaves the public with a clear takeaway: the Atlantic hurricane season may be less active on paper, but not risk-free, while the Pacific basin, the upcoming winter pattern and global rainfall shifts may become the bigger story as this developing El Niño strengthens.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
