Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the Pacific may be on the verge of a major flip, and if the current trends hold, the world could be looking at a very strong El Niño by summer, one that may rank among the more powerful events on record.
In his report for the YouTube channel JustWeather, Kegges said the signal has become strong enough that people should no longer think of El Niño as a distant possibility. In his words, it is “about to burst onto the scene,” and the implications could stretch from the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season all the way into the winter of 2026-27.
That is why this matters beyond weather hobbyists and climate charts. When a strong El Niño develops, it changes how heat, moisture, and storm energy are distributed around the planet. Kegges made the case that this one may not only arrive quickly, but could become unusually intense, which is where the phrase “historic” starts entering the conversation.
Forecasts like this always come with some uncertainty, and Kegges was careful to use the word “typically” more than once when describing what El Niño usually brings. Even so, his overall message was clear: the background conditions are changing fast, and the latest data suggests this could become a big one.
Why Jonathan Kegges Says People Should Care
At the start of his update, Kegges framed the issue in the most practical way possible by asking what this could mean for ordinary people, and the first answer was hurricane season.
He explained that a developing El Niño by the middle of summer would usually favor a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. The reason, he said, is that El Niño tends to increase wind shear and atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin, and tropical systems do not like either of those ingredients. More shear tears storms apart, and more stability makes it harder for thunderstorms to build and organize.
That is the good-news side of the equation, but Kegges did not oversell it. He stressed that “typically” does not mean always, and that even during a strong El Niño, all it takes is one landfalling storm to make a season devastating. He used 1992 as a cautionary example, noting that it was a quiet season overall but still produced Hurricane Andrew.
That reminder matters because people often hear “quiet season” and mistake it for “safe season,” which is not the same thing at all. Kegges’ broader point was that El Niño may lower the number of Atlantic storms in a typical year, but it does not erase the threat.
The Pacific Is Heating Up And La Niña Is Fading Fast
The other side of the coin, as Kegges explained, is what is happening in the Pacific itself.
He said the strong trade-wind pattern associated with La Niña has relaxed, and that warm water that had been pushed westward toward Australia is now beginning to slosh back east across the equatorial Pacific. That shift is one of the classic building blocks of El Niño, because once that warmth reaches and expands across the central and eastern Pacific, it starts altering thunderstorm patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation around the globe.
Kegges described La Niña as hanging on “by a thread,” and that line captures the tone of the report well. He was not talking about a slow, uncertain transition that may or may not happen by late year. He was talking about a fast-moving handoff, with La Niña expected to fade and El Niño expected to take over during the summer.
He pointed to subsurface warmth in the equatorial Pacific as one of the biggest clues. In his explanation, a huge pool of above-normal warmth is sitting below the ocean surface, ready to rise. Once it does, the surface temperature anomalies will rise with it, and that is when El Niño can strengthen in a hurry.
This is where the forecast becomes especially interesting. Kegges was not just relying on one model run or one abstract idea. He was tying together the weakening La Niña signal, the deep pool of warm water, and the changing wind pattern across the Pacific into one broader picture.
And that picture, in his view, is pointing toward a notable event.
The Numbers Are Starting To Look Serious
Kegges then moved into the model guidance, and this is where the forecast began to look even more striking.
He cited Climate Prediction Center guidance showing an El Niño watch already in place, with about a 60 percent chance of El Niño during the June-July-August period, rising to around 80 percent by the October-November-December period. That alone would get attention, but what really caught his eye was the projected strength.
He walked through European ensemble guidance showing many members rising well above 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal in the key region, with a large number clustering above 2 degrees Celsius. Kegges stressed that 2 degrees Celsius above normal would already qualify as a very strong El Niño, and several of the forecast lines were above that threshold.
That is what pushed his thinking toward the historic end of the scale. He compared the current projections with the strongest El Niño events on record, including 2015-16, 1997-98, and 1982-83. Those are the benchmark years meteorologists reach for when they want to describe truly major events, and Kegges said that if the upper half of the current ensemble guidance verifies, this developing event could end up in the top tier, perhaps even the top five.
That is still not a guarantee, of course. Seasonal forecasting is not fortune-telling, and he acknowledged that. But the trend he described is what makes this forecast feel more serious than routine spring climate chatter. The model members have not been backing off. In his telling, they have been trending warmer and warmer.
That is usually when forecasters start leaning in.
What It Could Mean For Winter 2026-27
Kegges also spent time looking beyond hurricane season, because if El Niño holds through fall and winter, the weather consequences could become even more far-reaching.
He said El Niño winters typically favor a more active southern branch of the jet stream, which tends to send more moisture into California, Texas, the Deep South, and Florida. That setup can mean beneficial mountain snow in the Sierra, drought-busting rains farther south, and more active storm tracks across the southern half of the country.
For the Northeast, he said an El Niño winter can also become favorable for bigger nor’easters, especially when northern and southern jet stream energy phases together. He used a colorful comparison, likening that setup to “crossing the streams,” because when the jet streams interact in the right way, they can produce the larger coastal storms that snow lovers remember.
That does not mean every El Niño winter is a blockbuster snow year for every city along I-95. Weather is never that clean. But Kegges made the point that this pattern is more supportive of major winter storms than many others, especially if the southern jet becomes active in the way El Niño often encourages.
He also noted one local concern for Florida: an active subtropical jet can increase severe weather chances there during the cooler season. That is a useful reminder that no climate setup brings only upside. The same atmospheric pattern that can bring needed rain can also raise the risk of rougher weather.
Historic Potential, But Not A Finished Story Yet
What makes Jonathan Kegges’ report compelling is not just that he says a strong El Niño may be coming. It is that he lays out why he believes it, using both the current Pacific setup and the model trends to argue that the pattern is moving in one clear direction.
He sees La Niña fading quickly. He sees deep warmth building beneath the surface. He sees NOAA’s El Niño watch already in place. And he sees model guidance that, if it verifies, could place this event among the stronger El Niños in the historical record.
That is not a forecast to ignore.
At the same time, Kegges did not treat the outcome as settled fact. He framed it as a developing situation, one that will need to be watched closely as spring turns to summer. That is probably the fairest way to see it right now. The ingredients are there, the confidence is growing, and the trend is notable, but the final intensity still has to play out.
Still, the takeaway from his report is hard to miss. This is no longer just background climate noise. A potentially historic El Niño may be forming, and if it comes together the way current guidance suggests, it could shape hurricane season, winter storms, drought patterns, and severe weather for many months to come.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
