Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges, speaking on his JustWeather channel, says May has the potential to turn wild across large parts of the United States, and he is not making that call lightly.
In his latest update, Kegges laid out a forecast that points to a hotter-than-normal month for much of the country, a wetter setup right through the middle of the nation, and what he believes could be a more active and more intense severe weather pattern than people normally expect, especially in the first half of May.
That alone would get attention. But what made his forecast stand out was how much time he spent explaining why he thinks this pattern could ramp up, from ocean temperatures to atmospheric cycles to the way the jet stream may keep setting the table for repeated rounds of storms.
This was not just a vague “watch out in May” type of forecast. Kegges walked through the ingredients, and his message was pretty clear: the setup is there for a month that could get noisy in a hurry.
A Warmer May Looks Likely Across Much Of The Country
Kegges said the broad temperature pattern for May should favor above-normal warmth across much of the United States.
He expects the West to run warmer than average, and he also sees a warmer pattern stretching across the southern tier of the country. That warmth, in his view, should even bleed into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
The places that may stay closer to average are the Upper Midwest and the Northeast, where he expects more ups and downs instead of steady warmth.
That kind of temperature map matters because it helps define where the atmosphere stores energy. Warmth alone does not create severe weather, but when it builds in the right place and meets incoming troughs and cooler air, it can become part of a much bigger story.
And that seems to be exactly what Kegges is worried about.
The Rain Map Tells A Bigger Story
On the precipitation side, Jonathan Kegges said the West, especially the Pacific Northwest and parts of the interior West, looks drier than normal again in May.
He also expects Florida to stay below normal for rainfall for now, although he said that should likely change as the calendar moves into June and July.
Right in the middle of the country, though, he sees the opposite setup. Kegges expects above-normal precipitation from Texas northward into the Upper Midwest.
That is a major clue to where his concern is centered. A wetter-than-normal signal through the Plains and into the central U.S. during May is not automatically alarming by itself, but when it lines up with his severe weather thinking, it starts to look much more significant.
That middle corridor is already where May usually does its loudest work. So if the ingredients are tilted toward more rainfall and repeated storm systems there, it does not take much to imagine how quickly the month could become active.
Kegges Thinks Severe Weather Could Come “Hot And Heavy”
Kegges was careful to say that forecasting severe weather in Tornado Alley during May is not exactly going out on a limb. May is the busiest severe weather month of the year, and the middle of the country is where you would normally expect the action.
But he said he believes this year’s setup points to an uptick in severe weather, especially during the first half of the month.
In his words, he thinks it could come “hot and heavy” at times and be more frequent than what people are used to.
That is the part of his forecast that stands out most. He is not simply saying there will be storms in the usual places. He is saying there may be more of them, and that the pattern could reload more often than normal.
That kind of forecast is hard to ignore because frequency matters just as much as intensity. Even a moderate risk repeated again and again can wear down communities, emergency crews, and people who live in the path of the storms.
And when a meteorologist starts using words like “insane” to describe a monthly pattern, it usually means the atmosphere is lining up in a way that deserves a closer look.
The Pacific And The Jet Stream May Be Driving This
A big part of Kegges’ forecast came from sea surface temperatures and how they may influence the jet stream.
He said the U.S. has now moved out of La Niña and into ENSO-neutral conditions. But in his view, the bigger signal is a cold pool south of Alaska and west of the Pacific Northwest.
That chilly water matters, he explained, because it tends to favor a trough, or dip in the jet stream, hanging around west of Canada. When that happens, warmer and drier air can build farther south and west, especially into the Desert Southwest, while colder air can dive more often into the Plains.
Put simply, Kegges sees a setup where cool air from Canada keeps meeting building warmth and Gulf moisture in the middle of the country.
That clash zone is where trouble often starts in spring.
His reasoning here is important because it gives structure to the forecast. The pattern he is describing is not random. It is a repeated alignment of warm air, moisture, lift, and incoming troughs, which is exactly the kind of thing that can keep severe weather going in waves.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation May Add Fuel
Kegges also leaned heavily on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, as part of his May outlook.
He explained that the MJO is a pulse of tropical convection that moves around the globe every 30 to 60 days, and that certain phases tend to enhance or suppress storm activity in different parts of the world.
For this setup, he said the European guidance suggests the MJO should progress through phases three and four, which he called an important severe weather signal for the central United States.
In his view, that matters because those phases would tend to enhance the same trough pattern already suggested by the Pacific setup.
That means the atmosphere may not just be favorable for severe weather once or twice. It may be reinforced into that mode.
This is where Kegges’ forecast gets especially interesting for weather watchers. He is not relying on one factor. He is stacking multiple signals that all point in a similar direction, and when forecasters start seeing that kind of agreement, confidence tends to rise.
That does not mean every day in May will be dangerous. But it does mean the background pattern may stay primed for more frequent storm episodes than average.
Drought And Wildfire Risk Will Also Be Part Of The Month
Even with his focus on severe storms, Kegges said drought and wildfire concerns are still going to be part of the May story too.
He noted that extreme drought continues in parts of Texas, Florida, Georgia, Colorado, and other areas. He does think parts of Texas should pick up above-normal rainfall, which could help there.
Florida, on the other hand, may stay dry for now, and he does not yet see meaningful relief for the Desert Southwest or parts of the Rockies.
That leads directly into wildfire concerns.
Using the significant wildfire outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center, Kegges said the highest above-normal wildfire potential in May appears to be in Florida, up the Southeast coast, parts of northern California, and areas of Arizona, western Texas, and New Mexico.
That is an important reminder that a wild weather month is not always wild in just one way. While one region could be dealing with repeated severe thunderstorms, another could be sweating through dryness, fire danger, and growing drought stress.
Early Tropical Activity Is Possible, But Confidence Is Low
Kegges also touched on something that always starts to creep into the conversation this time of year: whether there could be any early tropical development before June 1.
He said there is no clear signal for a strong early tropical setup. The Gulf and waters near the Southeast are warm in spots, but he does not see the MJO in a phase that would strongly support tropical development in early May.
Still, he did not completely rule it out.
Kegges said that if repeated troughs and cold fronts dig into the Gulf, the warm water there could allow a weak tropical or subtropical system to form before the official start of hurricane season.
His confidence in that is low, and he made that clear. But he also said the chance is there.
That is probably the right way to frame it. It is not the main event in this forecast, but it is one more reason why May may end up being a month worth watching from coast to coast.
The Hurricane Season Outlook May Be Lower Than Some Expect
Toward the end of the video, Kegges also offered a teaser for hurricane season, and it did not sound especially aggressive.
He said he believes the 2026 Atlantic season could come in on the lower side, possibly even lower than Colorado State’s forecast of 13 named storms.
Part of the reason, he said, is the expected development of a strong El Niño, along with an early-season sea surface temperature pattern that is not ideal for robust tropical development in the main Atlantic basin.
That is a separate forecast for another day, but it adds an interesting contrast. Kegges is sounding the alarm for May severe weather in the Plains and central U.S., while at the same time hinting that the Atlantic hurricane season may not be as busy as some might fear.
That split can happen. One pattern can be hostile for tropical systems while still being favorable for severe thunderstorms over the mainland.
Why He’s Sounding The Alarm
The clearest takeaway from Jonathan Kegges’ forecast is that he sees several atmospheric signals pointing in the same direction.
A warm setup across much of the country. A wetter-than-normal corridor through the central U.S. A cold pool in the Pacific helping to anchor troughing near the West. An MJO phase progression that could enhance severe weather in Tornado Alley. And enough Gulf warmth to keep feeding instability into the pattern.
That combination is why he believes May could get “really wild.”
He is not promising nonstop disaster, and he is not saying every severe weather day will be historic. But he is making a strong case that the month may be more active, more frequent, and at times more dangerous than normal, especially in the first half.
And that is why his warning lands. It is not hype for the sake of hype. It is a forecast built on several moving pieces that, at least right now, appear to be lining up in a way that could make May one of the busiest weather months of the year.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
