FOX Weather meteorologist Haley Meier says the latest European long-range forecast is now showing unusually strong support for a Super El Niño to develop by November, a pattern that could shape hurricane activity in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific while also influencing weather well beyond summer.
Meier, speaking on FOX Weather, said forecasters are watching the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often called ENSO, because it is one of the major background patterns meteorologists use when looking ahead to seasonal weather. As the official start of Atlantic hurricane season approaches, she said confidence is growing that a strong El Niño is likely to form, with the newest European model data taking that signal even further.
According to Meier, the latest European ensemble run is not merely hinting at El Niño or even a strong El Niño. It is showing 100% support for what she described as a Super El Niño, with some outputs suggesting it could become one of the strongest such events seen in a very long time.
A Powerful Signal In The Pacific
Meier said the latest European model guidance has become more aggressive since the previous run, which already showed a strong signal for a powerful El Niño.
The earlier data had about 90% of its model members pointing toward a strong or Super El Niño, she said. Now, Meier said, 100% of the European run favors a Super El Niño.
That does not mean every detail of the forecast is locked in months ahead of time, but it does show a strong long-range signal that forecasters will be watching closely as summer turns toward fall.
ENSO may sound like a dry technical subject, but it can become one of the biggest drivers of global weather patterns when it swings hard in one direction. In simple terms, El Niño occurs when water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific become warmer than average, and that warmth can shift where storms form, how air rises and sinks, and where wind shear becomes stronger.
Meier said meteorologists generally look at water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to determine whether the pattern is El Niño, neutral, or La Niña. When those waters are at least half a degree Celsius warmer than average, that points to El Niño.
When the anomaly climbs above two degrees Celsius, Meier said, that is when the pattern enters Super El Niño territory.
What El Niño Does To Hurricane Season
Meier said El Niño tends to create much warmer water temperatures across the eastern Pacific, while also helping promote rising air in that basin. That setup can make the eastern Pacific, or EPAC, much more active for tropical development.
On the other side of the pattern, she explained, the atmosphere behaves almost like a balancing scale.
If one region has more rising air and more favorable storm development, another region often ends up with more sinking air and wind shear. In this case, Meier said, that can suppress Atlantic activity, especially in the main development region where long-track tropical systems often form.
That is why El Niño is so important to hurricane forecasts. It does not guarantee a quiet Atlantic season, but it can make the environment less friendly for storms trying to organize across the open Atlantic.
Meier said the preliminary forecasts are calling for below-average Atlantic activity, and the El Niño signal is a major reason for that expectation.
Still, she made clear that “below average” does not mean “no threat.”
The Atlantic Still Has Homegrown Risks
Meier said one important caveat is that wind shear tied to El Niño does not affect every part of the Atlantic basin equally.
The main development region may become less favorable, but storms that form closer to the United States can still pose a serious risk. She specifically pointed to the Gulf of America and areas along the Gulf Stream, which are still trending near average for tropical activity.
Those “homegrown” systems often form closer to land, especially early in the season in June or later near the end of the season around November. Because they develop closer to the coast, residents may not have the same long lead time they would have with a tropical wave moving across the Atlantic for days.
That is an important point, and one that often gets lost when people hear a forecast calling for a less active season. A below-average hurricane season can still produce a damaging landfall, and a single storm near the wrong coastline can matter far more than the seasonal total.
Meier noted that there are also cases where very warm Atlantic water can overcome some of the wind shear that El Niño produces. She mentioned storms such as Idalia, Michael, and Joaquin as examples from recent decades where strong storms were still able to develop.
So, while El Niño may lower the odds of a very busy Atlantic season, it does not erase the need to prepare.
Eastern Pacific Could Be “The Basin To Watch”
While the Atlantic may face more hostile conditions, Meier said the eastern Pacific could be much more active.
She said substantial warming in the eastern Pacific is a strong sign that the EPAC will likely be the basin to watch this season. FOX Weather also noted that the eastern Pacific forecast is calling for 10 hurricanes, compared with an average of eight.
That matters for places like Hawaii, Meier said, as well as parts of the Desert Southwest.
Even when storms do not make direct landfall, tropical moisture can be pulled northward along the Mexican coastline and into the Southwest, sometimes feeding heavy rain or strengthening the monsoon pattern.
Meier said the monsoon season could become something to watch this year as tropical moisture becomes more available.
That kind of downstream impact is part of why a strong El Niño is not just a Pacific Ocean story. It can influence storm tracks, rainfall patterns, temperature swings, and seasonal risk areas far away from the patch of ocean where the warm water first develops.
Hawaii And The Southwest May Need To Watch Closely
Meier joked that she has never been to Hawaii and would not mind making the trip for hurricane coverage, but the point behind the light moment was serious.
The eastern Pacific may become “hot like a firecracker,” as another FOX Weather host put it during the segment, and Hawaii has had a number of close calls in recent years.
During El Niño years, storms in the eastern and central Pacific can find more favorable conditions, which can increase concern for islands that may normally sit outside the most frequent hurricane tracks.
Meier also pointed toward the Desert Southwest, where moisture from eastern Pacific tropical systems can sometimes get drawn north and feed into the seasonal monsoon. That can be beneficial in dry areas, but it can also raise flash flooding concerns if moisture arrives in bursts.
This is where the forecast becomes more than a hurricane-count discussion. A Super El Niño can rearrange where the atmosphere favors storms and where it suppresses them, and those changes can have very different meanings from one region to another.
A Long-Range Forecast With Big Implications
Meier said the anticipation is building for hurricane season, but she also noted that a strong El Niño could affect the winter pattern later on. She did not go deep into the winter forecast, saying the country is still inching toward summer, but the comment underscores how long-lasting ENSO impacts can be.
There were 26 days left until Atlantic hurricane season at the time of the FOX Weather segment, Meier said, which also marks the countdown toward the official start of meteorological summer.
For now, the major takeaway from Meier’s forecast is that the European model has strengthened its already strong signal for a Super El Niño by November.
That forecast will almost certainly be refined in the months ahead, but if the signal holds, it could mean a more active eastern Pacific hurricane season, a more suppressed Atlantic main development region, continued risk from close-to-home Atlantic systems, and possible monsoon impacts in the Southwest.
The most practical message is also the simplest: a quieter Atlantic forecast should not make coastal residents complacent, especially in areas where storms can form nearby and strengthen quickly.
As Meier explained, if a tropical threat develops close to home, people will not have the luxury of watching it cross the ocean for a week before deciding what to do.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
