Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the latest climate data is strengthening the case for a powerful El Niño developing by mid to late summer, and if that trend holds, Florida could see effects that stretch far beyond just one season.
In his forecast for WKMG News 6 ClickOrlando, Kegges said the conversation has shifted from whether La Niña is fading to how strong the coming El Niño may become. The reason this matters, he explained, is that the newest climate guidance is not just showing a routine warm phase in the Pacific. It is pointing toward a potentially very strong event, one that could have major consequences for hurricane season, Florida’s fall and winter rainfall, and even the risk of severe weather later in the year.
That is why the phrase “Super El Niño” is suddenly getting more attention. It is not just hype. Kegges’ forecast suggests the atmosphere and ocean are lining up in a way that forecasters take seriously, especially when several different indicators are all leaning in the same direction.
For Florida, that means the months ahead may not look ordinary at all.
The Latest Climate Models Are Trending Stronger
Jonathan Kegges said the newest modeling continues to push the expected El Niño signal higher, with many of the European ensemble members showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius above normal.
That is a big number.
As Kegges explained, El Niño is officially declared once ocean temperatures in the key region of the equatorial Pacific rise just half a degree Celsius above normal. So when many of the forecast lines are clustering in the 2 to 3 degree range, forecasters are no longer talking about a marginal event. They are talking about something that could rank among the strongest on record.
He compared the current projections to some of the biggest El Niño events ever observed, including 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Those were major climate events with far-reaching consequences, and Kegges pointed out that some of the current guidance is now entering that same territory, with a few outlier scenarios even hinting at record-breaking intensity if everything were to line up perfectly.
That does not mean records are guaranteed to fall. Kegges was careful to note that models are still models, and models are not promises. But his larger point was that the trend is unmistakable. Instead of easing back, the projections have grown stronger.
That is usually when forecasters stop treating an idea as theoretical and start treating it as something with real odds of happening.
The Pacific Is Already Showing Signs Of A Major Shift
Kegges did not rely on model lines alone. He also pointed to what he said forecasters can already see developing in real time across the Pacific.
One of the most important signs, in his view, is the appearance of what meteorologists call a westerly wind burst. He described this as an unusual wind pattern a few thousand feet above the ocean surface, where winds are blowing from west to east across the equatorial Pacific rather than in the more typical direction.
That matters because those winds help shove a large pool of warm water eastward, toward the part of the Pacific where El Niño develops and strengthens.
Kegges also highlighted the enormous amount of heat sitting below the surface in the equatorial Pacific. In his forecast, he described that warmth as essentially waiting beneath the ocean, ready to be pushed upward. Once that heat reaches the surface, it can rapidly strengthen sea surface temperature anomalies and accelerate the El Niño pattern.
That part of the forecast is especially important because it shows why forecasters are paying attention now, even before the event fully peaks. It is not just that the models are warm. It is that the ocean itself appears to be loaded with the fuel needed to support a strong event.
When you have favorable wind patterns and a large reservoir of heat below the surface at the same time, the atmosphere tends to listen.
Hurricane Season Could Be Quieter, But Florida Should Not Relax
For Florida viewers, one of the first questions is always the same: what does this mean for hurricane season?
Jonathan Kegges said a strong El Niño usually reduces Atlantic hurricane activity because it tends to create more wind shear and a more stable environment across the basin. In simple terms, that makes it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
But he was also careful not to let that point become a false comfort.
Kegges stressed that fewer storms does not mean lower risk for Florida. He reminded viewers that it only takes one storm to make a season memorable and damaging, and he used 1992 as the classic example. That season was quiet overall, but it still produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most catastrophic storms in Florida history.
That is exactly the kind of nuance people often miss when they hear that El Niño may “suppress” Atlantic hurricanes. It may reduce the total number of storms, but it does not remove Florida from danger. If anything, seasons with fewer storms can sometimes lull people into a false sense of security before one high-impact system changes everything.
Kegges also noted that the Pacific usually sees the opposite effect, with El Niño often helping fuel more active tropical activity there. That is not directly Florida’s problem, of course, but it shows how broad the reach of this pattern really is. One ocean basin may quiet down while another ramps up.
So if a strong El Niño does develop, Florida may indeed see some reduction in Atlantic storm counts. But that should never be confused with immunity.
Fall And Winter Could Turn Wetter Across Florida
If the hurricane implications are mixed, the fall and winter signal Kegges described may be a little easier for Floridians to understand.
He said a strong El Niño typically strengthens the southern branch of the jet stream, sometimes called the subtropical jet, and that tends to steer more Pacific moisture across the southern United States and into Florida. For this state, that often means more clouds, more rainy days, and a better chance of avoiding an unusually harsh dry season.
That could be especially meaningful in areas already dealing with drought concerns.
Kegges said a wetter-than-normal dry season becomes more likely if this El Niño grows as strong as the models are now suggesting. In practical terms, that could mean Florida sees more systems crossing the state during the cooler months, more frequent rainfall episodes, and fewer long stretches of dry weather than usual.
For people worried about water levels, wildfire danger, and stubborn drought, that would be welcome news.
Of course, wetter is not always better in every respect. More clouds and more rain can bring their own headaches, especially if the pattern becomes persistent. Still, after prolonged dryness, many parts of Florida would likely take that trade.
And this is one of the more interesting things about El Niño in Florida. The same climate signal that may work against some Atlantic hurricanes can also help deliver rainfall later in the year, easing drought while reshaping the entire cool-season weather pattern.
A Strong El Niño Could Also Raise Severe Weather Concerns
Kegges added one more warning that deserves attention.
A stronger subtropical jet does not just transport moisture. It can also create the kind of setup that supports more active severe weather episodes, especially during the cooler half of the year. He mentioned 1998 as one example of an El Niño period with notable severe weather implications, and he suggested that this would be something forecasters would need to watch closely if the Pacific continues warming.
That point is easy to overlook because El Niño is often discussed in broad seasonal terms, but for Florida it can have day-to-day consequences too.
A stronger jet stream, more moisture, and more active storm tracks can increase the number of weather systems capable of producing severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. It does not mean every strong El Niño guarantees a dangerous severe weather season, but it does tilt the background pattern in a direction forecasters cannot ignore.
That is why Kegges’ forecast was about more than one headline phrase.
He was not simply saying, “El Niño is coming.” He was saying that the event now being projected is strong enough that it could meaningfully shape several of Florida’s most important weather risks, from tropical season to dry season to severe storms.
Florida’s Weather Could Look Very Different By Late Summer And Beyond
By the end of his forecast, Jonathan Kegges made clear why El Niño is drawing so much attention right now.
The models have strengthened. The Pacific is showing physical signs that support the model trend. The subsurface warmth is there. The wind patterns are helping. And at the very least, he said, a pretty strong El Niño looks likely by mid to late summer.
That is the key takeaway.
Florida may be heading into a very different weather pattern than the one it has been in, and if this develops into the kind of strong or even very strong El Niño Kegges outlined, the state could feel those effects for months. Hurricane season may see some suppression in the Atlantic, though not enough to justify complacency. Fall and winter may trend wetter than normal. Severe weather potential could also increase as the subtropical jet becomes more active.
It is still too early to say exactly how strong the event will become or how perfectly the impacts will match the textbook pattern. But Kegges’ forecast makes one thing clear: this is no longer a background climate signal for weather nerds alone.
If these trends continue, Florida residents will be hearing about El Niño a lot more, and for good reason.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
