Another California County Flips Red

California just delivered a plot twist: one more county has flipped from blue to red in voter registration. That’s the headline Carl DeMaio – chairman of Reform California and current state legislator – opened with in his latest update, arguing Republicans are surging while Democrats stall. At nearly the same time, KCRA’s Ashley Zavala highlighted fresh statewide data: GOP and No Party Preference (NPP) registrations are growing; Democrats barely budged. Together, these snapshots show movement that could matter in the coming months – especially with a special redistricting election on deck.

DeMaio’s Flashpoint: Stanislaus Turns Red

DeMaio pointed to a local milestone: Republican registrations in Stanislaus County have overtaken Democrats for the first time in about a decade. He framed it as the latest sign of a broader shift: counties that voted red in 2024 are seeing registration follow, and more counties are “on the verge” of flipping. His message to right-leaning voters was blunt – don’t move out, stay and vote – because, as he tells it, the trend lines are finally bending their way.

The Statewide Picture: GOP and NPP Gain, Dems Flatline

On KCRA’s “California Politics 360,” Ashley Zavala ran through the latest numbers: nearly half of California’s voters are registered Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 22% NPP. But the year-to-date change is the story. Since February 10, Republicans gained roughly 48,000 registrants and NPP gained about 82,700, while Democrats added only 190 statewide. That’s not nothing – it’s a directional shift that’s hard to ignore, especially with 23 million ballots landing in mailboxes for the special election.

Is It a Wave or a Ripple?

Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio poured some cold water on “realignment” talk. He called it a ripple, not a wave, noting the long arc: two decades ago, about one in three voters were Republicans; now it’s closer to one in four. He acknowledged erosion among Democrats with Black, Latino, and younger voters, but argued these are subtle adjustments, not a wholesale flip. In other words: momentum exists, but the math still favors Democrats – unless the trickle becomes a trend.

The Rise of “Not So Partisan”

Republican strategist Tim Rosales zeroed in on the NPP jump. He said many voters aren’t eager to wear party labels, even if they hold strong views. That matters in California, where NPP voters can swing primaries and ballot measures. Rosales also flagged an intraparty tug-of-war on the Democratic side – between a louder progressive wing and a more traditional establishment – that may be pushing some voters to step back and register as independents while they sort out where they stand.

The Special Election and the Prop 50 Fight

Zavala reminded viewers why these numbers hit now: a special election on redistricting. Rosales framed the Prop 50 fight as a fairness test with true toss-up vibes. Maviglio noted the “Yes” side is leaning into anti-Trump messaging instead of line-drawing details, because Democrats still hold the raw registration edge. If Republicans and NPP voters are more energized than their registration share implies, that messaging choice could matter – either by rallying Democrats or by missing independents who care more about process than personality.

DeMaio’s Playbook: Voter ID and “No on 50”

DeMaio isn’t just narrating the moment; he’s trying to shape it. He urged supporters to help put a California Voter ID initiative on the ballot and to volunteer against Prop 50, which he calls a power grab to end the state’s redistricting commission. He promoted petition drives, a bus tour starting October 8, and local events to recruit volunteers. Whether you agree with him or not, the strategy is clear: turn registration drift into turnout, and turnout into policy.

County Battlegrounds on His Radar

Beyond Stanislaus, DeMaio listed several counties he says are close to flipping in registration: Riverside, Orange, San Luis Obispo, Fresno, Lake, and Nevada. Some have only a small Democratic edge, he argued, and “movement is what we’re seeing now.” It’s a county-by-county grind – tight margins, incremental gains, and the constant question of whether registration changes translate into actual votes when ballots arrive.

A Governor’s Race Curveball

DeMaio also teased a “shakeup” in the governor’s race. He said there’s now a small (he called it 10%) chance that, under California’s top-two primary system, two Republicans could advance if the large Democratic field cannibalizes its own vote. He cited an Emerson snapshot: Katie Porter leading at 16%, with Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco next, and a huge 43% undecided. He noted former Senate leader Toni Atkins dropped out, and hinted more Democrats might jump in or out, keeping the landscape in flux. His read: a long shot – but a real one.

Registration Tells a Story – Turnout Writes the Ending

The registration numbers are striking: GOP up, NPP up, Democrats almost flat. But voter files don’t vote – people do. If those 48,000 new Republicans and 82,700 new NPP voters open and return their ballots at higher rates, the “ripple” gets louder in a hurry. If they sit out, the story dissolves. California’s top-two system also means coalition math matters twice: once in the primary and again in the general. A fractured field can produce surprise finalists even when one party owns the raw registration edge.

Independents Want Fairness, Not Food Fights

Rosales is right about independents: they’re not apolitical, they’re allergic to parties. On a redistricting ballot fight, that cohort often looks for process fairness over personality politics. If Prop 50 gets framed as “rules for thee, not for me,” independents could break hard against it. Maviglio’s point still stands: Democrats have the numbers to win if they mobilize. But if the “Yes” campaign leans too much on nationalized messaging while “No” hammers a simple fairness pitch, the registration tale could flip into an outcome surprise.

What to Watch Next

DeMaio calls this a surge; Maviglio calls it a ripple. The truth is in the habits: Do GOP and NPP gains persist for months, not weeks? Do marginal counties move from “close” to “flipped,” and then vote like it? Does the governor’s race consolidate on either side, or does it splinter enough for a top-two curveball? And in the immediate term, does Prop 50 become a proxy fight about trust in the system – or about Donald Trump? Those choices will shape who shows up and which way the wind really blows.

A New Alignment or Just Noise?

DeMaio says another county flipping red is proof the map is shifting. Zavala’s data says Republicans and independents are growing while Democrats are flat. Maviglio says don’t call it a wave. Rosales says independents are the hinge. My take: the registration drift is real, but the next few weeks – ballots mailed, Prop 50 argued, ground games tested – will show whether this is the start of a new alignment or just noise before the numbers snap back. Either way, California politics just got a lot more interesting.

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