In 2020, the United States saw a record-breaking surge in firearm sales, with an estimated 21 million guns purchased in just 12 months. According to The Pew Pew Zone, this was enough to arm every adult in Florida and Texas combined. The demand was so intense that gun stores ran out of stock, background check systems crashed under the pressure, and manufacturers struggled to keep up with production.
The surge was not just from existing gun owners; nearly 5 million first-time buyers entered the market, marking one of the largest expansions in firearm ownership in U.S. history. But now, that boom has ended, and the industry is facing a steep decline.
Pandemic Fear and Social Unrest Drove Gun Sales Sky High
The demand for firearms in 2020 wasn’t random – a perfect storm of events triggered it. The Pew Pew Zone highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread protests following George Floyd’s death, and the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election all contributed to heightened fears about personal safety. People watched as grocery stores emptied, supply chains faltered, and riots broke out in major cities. Suddenly, the idea of self-defense became more urgent for many Americans, including those who had never considered owning a gun before.
A Market That Couldn’t Sustain Itself
Despite the record-setting sales, analysts warned that such a massive surge wasn’t sustainable. Vanderbilt University professor Jonathan Metzl, as cited by The Trace, noted that gun sales were artificially inflated by fear and uncertainty, and once those pressures eased, the market was bound to contract. That prediction has now come true. In 2024, Americans purchased only 15.3 million guns – down from the 21.8 million sold in 2020. That’s a staggering 6.5 million fewer firearms in just four years.
Gun Manufacturers Scaling Back Production
With demand falling, gun manufacturers have been forced to adjust. Chip Brownlee of The Trace reports that between 2021 and 2023, firearm production in the U.S. dropped by 36%, from 23.4 million guns to just under 15 million. The drop in production aligns with sales declines, as manufacturers no longer need to keep up with the frenzied buying habits of 2020 and 2021. Factories that once operated at full capacity have slowed down, and some have even started laying off workers or shifting focus to accessories rather than new firearms.
Trump’s Return and the Political Sales Effect
The political climate plays a significant role in gun sales. Stephen Gutowski of The Reload reports that firearm purchases tend to decline when a Republican occupies the White House because gun owners feel less urgency about potential restrictions. This was seen during Trump’s first term when sales dropped 17% over three years, and now that he’s set for another four years, the downward trend is expected to continue. When gun control is less of an immediate concern, many buyers hold off on purchasing new firearms.
Not Just Politics—Inflation Is Hitting Gun Sales Too
While political factors certainly influence firearm sales, they’re not the only reason for the decline. The Trace highlights how inflation has made everyday expenses a bigger concern for many Americans. In Washington state, for example, gun sales dropped by 43% in December 2024 compared to the previous year. Jeremy Ball, the owner of Sharp Shooting Indoor Range & Gun Shop, explained that when people are struggling to afford necessities like groceries and rent, buying a new gun becomes a lower priority. “Are you going to buy a gun, or are you going to eat?” he asked. “That’s a pretty simple decision.”
Gun Stores Are Feeling the Impact
Retailers are facing tough times as well. The Pew Pew Zone notes that in 2020, gun stores couldn’t keep shelves stocked, but now they are struggling to move inventory. Some shop owners report that their businesses are surviving only through heavy discounting and promotional sales. Unlike the frenzied panic-buying days of 2020, customers are now much more selective, often waiting for deals before making a purchase.
The Myth of a Permanent Gun Boom
For those who thought the record-breaking gun sales of 2020 signaled a permanent shift in American gun culture, the data tells a different story. The Reload explains that the current decline in sales is not an anomaly but a return to more typical buying patterns. Even with millions of guns still being sold each year, the numbers are more in line with historical averages rather than the pandemic-driven spikes of 2020 and 2021.
More Guns in Circulation—More Risk?
While overall gun sales have dropped, the impact of the 2020 boom lingers. The Trace points out that more guns in circulation means a greater potential for firearm-related violence. Gun homicides spiked in 2020 and have since declined, but suicides involving firearms have reached record highs. Vanderbilt’s Metzl and other experts worry that the massive influx of new guns into American households may have long-term consequences, particularly when it comes to suicide rates. The more firearms exist, the higher the chance they will be used in moments of crisis.
What This Means for the Future of Gun Sales
Despite the downturn, the U.S. gun market is still enormous. The Trace estimates that there are now over 390 million firearms in civilian hands. While sales are declining, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that while the buying frenzy of 2020 was an anomaly, gun ownership in America has permanently expanded. The challenge for the firearms industry now is figuring out how to adapt to a market that is no longer driven by crisis-driven purchasing.
A Market in Transition
The firearms industry is at a crossroads. Companies that expanded rapidly during the boom are now facing excess inventory and declining demand. Gun sellers who once relied on fear-driven sales tactics must now appeal to a more price-conscious and selective consumer base. While the market may never return to the panic-buying days of 2020, it is still far from collapsing. The question now is how gun manufacturers and retailers will navigate this new reality.
The Rise and Fall of a Historic Surge
The rise and fall of American gun sales over the past five years tell a story of crisis-driven consumer behavior, political influence, and economic reality. The Pew Pew Zone, The Trace, and The Reload all provide different angles on this shift, but the core truth remains: The American firearm market is no longer experiencing the panic-driven boom of 2020.
Instead, it is adjusting to a new, more stable era – one where gun sales remain high but are no longer breaking records. Whether this is good or bad depends on who you ask, but one thing is certain: The days of empty gun store shelves and overwhelmed background check systems are over.
Raised in a small Arizona town, Kevin grew up surrounded by rugged desert landscapes and a family of hunters. His background in competitive shooting and firearms training has made him an authority on self-defense and gun safety. A certified firearms instructor, Kevin teaches others how to properly handle and maintain their weapons, whether for hunting, home defense, or survival situations. His writing focuses on responsible gun ownership, marksmanship, and the role of firearms in personal preparedness.