In Michigan, opening day isn’t just a date – it’s a ritual. As Jhyrah DeLapp and Brendan Sanders write in the Huron Daily Tribune, November 15 sends half a million hunters into the woods with orange vests, hot coffee, and a century-old tradition that still feels like a state holiday.
But their reporting also flags a sobering trend. Regular firearm-season harvests have declined for three straight years: 154,940 deer in 2022, 137,074 in 2023, and 136,524 in 2024 – a roughly 12% slide since 2022, according to state data cited by DeLapp and Sanders.
That’s not just a blip. It’s a pattern. And it’s got people talking.
The “Worst in Years” Warning
On the hunting channel The Outdoor Conquest, host Lucas Pawlosky says the 2025 numbers are “staggering” in the wrong direction.
In his November 5 breakdown, he tells viewers the Michigan DNR is “not happy,” and he describes current harvest reporting as “one of the biggest declines in years.”
Pawlosky isn’t just venting. He’s looking at the same scoreboard hunters watch. He says that by early November, about 48,000 deer had been self-reported in 2025, and the ratio was heavily lopsided toward antlered deer – roughly 33,396 bucks versus a little over 14,500 antlerless.
That imbalance is the drumbeat in his video: too few does taken, too many left to swell the herd and strain management goals.
His message to the community is blunt. If hunters don’t help bring antlerless numbers up, he predicts the state will lean harder on alternatives like crop-damage permits, which few in the deer camp crowd want to see expanded.
What the Data Really Say
DeLapp and Sanders provide context that tracks with Pawlosky’s alarm. The antlerless harvest is where Michigan’s seen the most erosion.
They note it dropped from 59,330 in 2022 to 50,252 in 2024 – an almost 15% decline in just two years. Antlered numbers also fell sharply from 2022 to 2023, but antlerless has been the longer, quieter slide.
They also report DeerFriendly.com’s estimate of 1.6 to 1.7 million deer statewide, so it’s not that the herd disappeared. It’s that the taking – especially of does – keeps slipping.
As of their piece, 63,383 deer had been reported in 2025 across seasons, with more than 40,000 in the first month of archery. That’s a lot of early archery activity, and it puts even more pressure on firearm season to stabilize trends.
My read: when the herd stays large but the doe harvest sags, managers lose one of their best levers for long-term balance. The result can be more vehicle collisions, more browse damage, and paradoxically, harder hunting as deer adapt.
Weather, Rut, and the Moon
The woods aren’t a spreadsheet. DeLapp and Sanders lean on local shop owner Randy Brown, who says hunters are genuinely optimistic heading into the Nov. 15–30 firearm window – thanks to cooler weather and cleaned-up fields.
When corn is off, deer have fewer standing sanctuaries and move more naturally. That can help.
Brown also talks about the rut and photoperiod – the shortening of daylight that triggers deer behavior. Once bucks shift into chase mode, they move more in daylight and cover more ground.
“It’s like midnight at the bar,” he jokes. Unscientific phrasing, sure, but every November hunter knows that feeling when your trail cameras suddenly light up like a slot machine.
One complicating factor Brown mentions is the moon. Full moons extend nighttime visibility for deer and can stretch movement patterns in ways that frustrate daylight sits. Last year’s moon phase timing didn’t help firearm hunters; 2024’s firearm harvest made up a lower share of the total season than in 2022 and 2023, per the Tribune data.
This year, with a forecasted cold snap and post-harvest fields, some of those variables may finally line up in hunters’ favor – even if the long arc of harvest trends remains negative.
Why Antlerless Matters (And Why It’s Slumping)
Pawlosky keeps returning to the doe issue because it’s the heartbeat of management. In his view, Michigan’s two-buck opportunity pulls effort toward antlered deer while antlerless numbers languish.
He suggests concrete fixes: lower the price of doe tags, “buy one get one” promos, or other incentives to make antlerless harvest a no-brainer on marginal weather days.
He also stacks up field realities that match what many hunters saw this fall. October was warm. Processing meat in heat is more work and more risk, which nudges some folks to pass on does and hold out for “one good buck” instead. That impulse scales across a state of 500,000 hunters.
Pawlosky relays two more pressure points he’s hearing: a bumper acorn year that lets deer feed tight to bedding, and localized EHD losses in the Southern Lower Peninsula.
Heavy mast crops shrink daylight travel. EHD pockets shrink local visibility of deer even if the wider herd stays robust. Put those together with warm evenings, and you get fewer daylight doe encounters – and a lot of “next cold front” procrastination that never cashes in.
Here’s my take. None of that makes antlerless a bad play. It just means the system needs better nudges. Tag pricing, weekend antlerless opportunities, and even small lottery incentives can flip habits. Hunters respond to friction. Lower the friction, harvest comes up.
The Firearm Season Squeeze
The Tribune piece lays out an interesting structural shift. In 2022, firearm season accounted for just over half of Michigan’s total harvest (50.8%). In 2023, it dipped to right under half (49.97%). In 2024, it fell further to 45.58%.
That’s not necessarily a crisis – bow participation is up nationally, and crossbows keep moving more harvest earlier.
But it does change the expectations game. If a rising share of deer are tagged before Nov. 15, firearm season can’t rescue the numbers like it used to. That makes antlerless during archery even more important.
Randy Brown’s optimism on weather and field conditions is warranted for opening day. A sharp cold snap can reset daylight movement. If farmers finished harvest, and he says they have, deer lose the “standing corn shield” that swallows them whole. Hunters may finally get the midday cruisers they missed all October.
What Hunters Can Control Right Now
Pawlosky’s practical advice is simple: take that first clean, mature doe when it presents. He’s candid that he loves a nice buck as much as anyone, but he’s “in it for the meat,” and this is a year to lean into that. He’s not wrong.
If you manage private ground, balance your hit list. If you hunt public, plan a doe sit when weather, access, and pack-out make sense. And if you run cameras, use them to identify consistent antlerless patterns near bedding-to-food edges – not just to chase travelers on scrapes.
I’ll add one more actionable thing from the management side. If the DNR truly wants higher antlerless participation, as Pawlosky says they do, build frictionless incentives tied to reporting.
For example: report an antlerless harvest through the app and get an automatic entry for a statewide gear lottery. Or bundle doe tags into family licenses at a deep discount. Small carrots go a long way in a tradition state.
The Line Between “Worry” and “Fix”
DeLapp and Sanders remind readers that Nov. 15 is more than a number. It’s family, camp coffee, and a first-light hush you can’t download. That culture can carry a tough season. But it can also move the needle when data point to a management gap.
Pawlosky’s alarm – “worst in years” – is really a call for course correction. Take more antlerless where appropriate. Push for smarter tag pricing. Don’t leave it all to crop-damage permits and summer culls.
And listen to the conditions. Brown notes the fields are cut and the mercury is dropping. The rut is popping. If there’s a window to nudge 2025 back toward balance, it’s the one Michigan hunters are stepping into right now.
The Huron Daily Tribune team – Jhyrah DeLapp and Brendan Sanders – brought receipts: three years of firearm-season declines, a pronounced slide in antlerless, and a statewide herd that still sits around 1.6–1.7 million. Randy Brown offered the field read – cold, cut corn, and rut energy – that could buoy opening week.
Lucas Pawlosky put a sharper edge on it, warning that 2025 is tracking as the “worst in years,” with early numbers down and the buck-to-doe ratio badly skewed. His prescription is straightforward: make does a priority and push the agency to make that choice easier.
If Michigan hunters answer that call – one clean shot at a time – the trendline can turn faster than people think. If not, the spreadsheets will keep winning – and nobody came to deer camp for that.
Ed spent his childhood in the backwoods of Maine, where harsh winters taught him the value of survival skills. With a background in bushcraft and off-grid living, Ed has honed his expertise in fire-making, hunting, and wild foraging. He writes from personal experience, sharing practical tips and hands-on techniques to thrive in any outdoor environment. Whether it’s primitive camping or full-scale survival, Ed’s advice is grounded in real-life challenges.
