A volatile stretch of late-summer weather is setting up across the United States, with severe thunderstorms, extreme heat, flash-flooding concerns and even a growing wildfire threat all competing for attention over the next seven days.
Meteorologist Ryan Hall, host of the Ryan Hall, Y’all YouTube channel, said Tuesday begins with dangerous storms across the central Plains, but the atmosphere may reload several more times through the weekend before an unusually strong system reaches the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
At the same time, a stubborn heat dome will keep temperatures near or above 100 degrees across large parts of the southern Plains and Desert Southwest, while some areas farther east face repeated rounds of heavy rain.
Tuesday Starts With Damaging Winds And Giant Hail
Hall said Tuesday’s most organized severe-weather threat stretches from southern Nebraska into northern and western Kansas, with additional risk extending toward the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
The primary concern will be damaging wind.
He said some storms could produce gusts above 75 mph, with localized winds potentially topping 80 mph as thunderstorms organize and race southeast during the afternoon and evening.
“That’s the kind of wind that snaps power poles and drops big old limbs across the road,” Hall warned.
The first storms coming off the higher terrain of eastern Colorado are expected to be supercells, which could produce very large hail from around golf-ball size to possibly baseball size.
Hall said the tornado threat is lower across Kansas and the Panhandles because the storms will be high-based and surrounded by very hot, dry air.
Farther north, however, portions of Minnesota and the Upper Mississippi Valley have a better chance of seeing enough low-level rotation for an isolated tornado.
By Tuesday evening, storms across Kansas may merge into a larger cluster and continue through western portions of the state overnight, bringing not only strong winds but also some flash-flooding concerns in low-lying areas and on back roads.
That combination is a little unusual because dry ground does not automatically protect an area from flooding. A fast burst of heavy rain can overwhelm drainage quickly, especially when storms repeatedly move over the same places.
Brutal Heat Covers The Southern Plains
The other major Tuesday story is heat.
Hall said Texas and Oklahoma will once again climb well into the 100s, with parts of North Texas approaching 109 degrees and heat index values around 110 to 115.
Phoenix could reach roughly 116 degrees, putting the city in position to challenge a daily record.
Extreme heat warnings are expected to continue across parts of the Southwest through Saturday.
The contrast across the country will be remarkable.
While severe storms offer at least temporary relief across portions of the Plains, the broader ridge of high pressure will continue trapping heat farther south and west.
In the Southeast, very humid air with dew points in the mid-70s will support soaking thunderstorms and isolated downbursts capable of knocking down trees.
Out West, the problem is almost the opposite.
Hall said portions of Idaho and Montana could see dry thunderstorms, meaning lightning and gusty winds with little meaningful rainfall.
With humidity around 15% in some areas, that creates ideal conditions for new wildfire starts.
He also pointed to the ongoing Hulk Fire near Reno, saying winds could gust around 30 to 35 mph in the area while smoke spreads north and east.
That is one of the more dangerous combinations in the forecast: lightning, dry vegetation and wind arriving together.
More Than 30 Million Face Wednesday Storm Risk
By Wednesday, the severe-weather threat shifts east as a cold front moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Hall said more than 30 million people will be under at least a marginal risk of severe weather, including Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit and Fort Wayne.
Storms are expected to fire along the front during the afternoon and continue into the evening.
The stronger cells could produce hail around one inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph.
There will also be enough instability and some low-level spin for a brief tornado to be possible.
Hall noted that storms approaching Chicago during the evening could even interfere with the Rangers-White Sox game at Rate Field, depending on how long the storms hold together.
Farther south, from the Ozarks toward Little Rock, temperatures near the upper 90s and low 100s will keep plenty of energy available for disorganized but potentially damaging storms.
Heavy rain will also become an issue from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Hall said some locations could receive two to three inches of rain in a relatively short period, increasing the chance of flash flooding.
The rain will be welcome in some hot areas, but once rainfall becomes intense enough, relief can quickly turn into a different hazard.
Heat Dome Holds While Flood Risk Builds
Thursday will bring little relief from the broader heat pattern.
Hall said the heat dome will remain anchored over the Southwest, keeping the hottest deserts near 116 degrees and extending extreme heat into the lower Grand Canyon.
The southern Plains will remain in the upper 90s and 100s, with high humidity making conditions feel even worse.
That ridge works by forcing air downward, Hall explained, which suppresses clouds and allows temperatures to climb day after day.
Farther east, stalled fronts will keep producing rain.
Thursday storms are expected from the northern and central Plains into the Midwest, while the Southeast could see enough clouds and rainfall to hold temperatures down somewhat.
By Friday, those stalled boundaries may become a larger flood concern because repeated rounds of rain make the ground less able to absorb additional water.
Hall said the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic could see another round of heavy rain Friday, while monsoon moisture returning to Arizona and the Rockies may create flash-flooding problems there as well.
Slow-moving thunderstorms in southern Colorado could be especially dangerous around burn scars, slot canyons and urban streets, where even a quick inch of rain can turn roads into rushing water.
Weekend Storm System Could Be The Bigger Threat
Saturday begins a transition toward what Hall considers the most important system of the week.
A storm will drop into the Northwest while heat remains entrenched across the southern Plains and Southwest.
Phoenix is expected to stay above 110 degrees, and triple-digit temperatures may push back into western Kansas.
By Sunday, however, Hall said an unseasonably strong late-August storm system could move from Montana into North Dakota and the Upper Midwest.
The setup matters because the ridge should weaken ahead of the storm while a stronger jet stream moves overhead.
That is a much better recipe for organized severe thunderstorms.
Hall said American and European models both show the system, along with their AI-based versions, which he called a fairly strong signal at this range.
The main uncertainty is timing.
Some guidance brings the storm in as early as Saturday, while other models hold the main event until Sunday.
Areas from Fargo to Sioux Falls and Minneapolis may eventually be included in formal severe-weather outlooks once confidence improves.
The timing could also matter for the Minnesota State Fair, which runs through the weekend.
Hall said a Sunday afternoon storm threat would put crowded outdoor areas at risk if severe weather develops nearby.
That is exactly the sort of setup where several hours of timing can make a major difference.
Extreme Heat May Continue Into September
The active pattern may not end with the weekend.
Hall said the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted a high risk of extreme heat across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley for Monday, August 31, and Tuesday, September 1.
A broader moderate-risk area extends into the Desert Southwest and central Rockies through the middle of next week.
Feels-like temperatures may remain above 100 degrees.
The same ridge responsible for the current heat is expected to weaken and shift somewhat east, but not enough to fully break the pattern.
Hall also warned that parts of the southern Plains are more than two inches behind normal rainfall over the past month.
With continued heat and limited rain, he said a flash-drought situation could develop from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
That is a concern because drought does not always build slowly. Under extreme heat, strong evaporation and repeated dry days can take an already stressed landscape and push it into much worse conditions in only a couple of weeks.
The next seven days therefore offer very little consistency.
Some areas will be dealing with wind damage and hail, others with dangerous heat, still others with flash flooding or wildfire danger.
Hall’s forecast suggests the atmosphere is not settling down anytime soon, and the stronger weekend system may be the clearest sign that the final days of August could remain just as active as the rest of the week.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
