Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the weather pattern that helped shape the last stretch of tropical activity is now over, and what comes next could be much bigger than a routine seasonal flip.
In his JustWeather report, Kegges said La Niña is now effectively finished, and the transition out of that cooler Pacific phase is likely to trigger a much broader global weather shift. His main point was simple: the atmosphere is not just changing, it may be heading toward a very strong El Niño, possibly one that ends up being historic.
That is a bold claim, but Kegges backed it up with the model guidance he walked through in detail. And if those projections hold, the effects would not stop at one ocean basin or one season. They could shape the 2026 hurricane season in the Atlantic and Pacific, and possibly ripple well beyond that.
The biggest takeaway from his forecast is not just that El Niño is coming. It is that the replacement for La Niña may arrive with much more force than usual.
Hurricane Season May Be Quieter, But Not Harmless
Kegges began by pointing to Colorado State University’s first Atlantic hurricane outlook for 2026, released April 9. That forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
He described that as roughly average to slightly below average, at least by the raw numbers. But he also made a point that often gets lost when seasonal forecasts are discussed: fewer storms does not automatically mean less risk.
Kegges stressed the difference between quantity and quality, noting that even a season with fewer total storms can still produce powerful and destructive hurricanes. That is especially important because waters closer to land remain very warm.
In his report, he highlighted sea surface temperature anomalies showing waters near the U.S. coastline running above normal, while parts of the main development region farther out in the Atlantic were closer to, or below, normal. That combination is part of why forecasters are leaning toward a quieter Atlantic setup overall, but not an all-clear.
That is an important distinction, and frankly one of the smarter parts of Kegges’ presentation. Seasonal outlooks are useful, but they can also lull people into false confidence if they are oversimplified. A below-normal season still only needs one bad storm to become a nightmare.
Why The Pacific Could Be More Active
Kegges also broke down model guidance showing the Atlantic may be quieter while the Pacific gets busier.
Using European ensemble projections for tropical storm frequency through October, he said the Atlantic is forecast to come in slightly below normal, with an ensemble mean of about 12.4 named storms compared with a climatological average of 14.
The Pacific, however, appears to be a different story. Kegges said the eastern Pacific is forecast above normal, and the western Pacific may also run more active than average. That fits the typical El Niño pattern, where increased wind shear and sinking air tend to suppress Atlantic activity while more favorable conditions show up over the Pacific.
That shift is one of the classic calling cards of El Niño, and Kegges treated it as one of the clearest early hints that the ocean-atmosphere system is moving into a very different phase.
He also pointed to Colorado State’s coastal strike probabilities, which still show risk across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts even in a quieter setup. Florida, for example, still carries the highest chance of a storm passing within 50 miles of the coastline, though Kegges noted that number is forecast below the long-term average.
That is worth remembering. Lower odds are not the same as low stakes.
The “Super” El Niño Signal Is What Has Forecasters Talking
The most eye-catching part of Kegges’ report came when he turned to the newest model guidance for El Niño intensity.
He said the latest ensemble forecasts, initialized on April 1, show values that are unusually aggressive. In the equatorial Pacific, El Niño conditions begin at just 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal. But Kegges showed many model members climbing above 2 degrees Celsius, with some even pushing beyond 3 degrees.
That matters because once the anomaly gets above 2 degrees, the event is no longer just strong. It enters the conversation with the biggest El Niño events on record.
Kegges compared the new projections to past giants, including the 2015-16 El Niño, which peaked around 2.7 degrees Celsius above normal, the 1997-98 event at about 2.4, and the 1982-83 event at roughly 2.23.
His argument was that if the new forecast verifies anywhere near the upper end of the ensemble spread, the coming El Niño could rank among the strongest ever observed. That is why he used the phrase “historic,” and based on the numbers he presented, that description does not seem exaggerated.
To be clear, forecasting several months out always comes with uncertainty. But the signal Kegges showed is strong enough that it deserves attention, not a shrug.
What El Niño Usually Does To Hurricane Season
Kegges then stepped back and explained the science in plain language. During an El Niño, the Pacific generally sees less wind shear, making it easier for tropical systems there to organize and strengthen.
The Atlantic usually gets the opposite treatment. Kegges said El Niño tends to increase wind shear and atmospheric stability in the Atlantic, which makes storm formation harder and often reduces the number of systems that can fully develop.
That is why El Niño years are often expected to produce quieter Atlantic seasons and more active Pacific ones.
But he also warned against reading too much certainty into that pattern. He brought up 2023 as an example of an El Niño year that still produced far more Atlantic storms than many would have expected, largely because Atlantic waters were so warm.
That is another reason his report felt grounded. Kegges was clearly excited by the model signal, but he also kept returning to the same caution: typical does not mean guaranteed.
Weather rarely rewards anyone who gets too comfortable with averages.
One Storm Can Still Change Everything
The closing argument in Kegges’ report may have been the most useful one.
He said people should not hear “below average” and assume they can relax. To make that point, he brought up 1992, a very quiet Atlantic season that still produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history.
That example remains one of the best reminders in all of seasonal forecasting. A season can be quiet right up until it is not.
Kegges also recalled a conversation with Jamie Rhome of the National Hurricane Center, who told him that people always want to know how many storms are forecast, but rarely ask how to prepare their homes. That line cuts right to the real issue.
Forecast numbers are interesting. Preparation is what matters.
If Kegges is right, 2026 could feature a powerful El Niño that reshapes tropical activity across both oceans. That may reduce the total number of Atlantic storms, while also setting the stage for a more active Pacific. It may also rank among the strongest El Niño events in modern records.
But even if all of that happens, the practical message stays the same. A quieter Atlantic does not mean a safe Atlantic, and a historic El Niño would not erase the threat for people living in hurricane-prone areas.
That is the piece that should stick. The models may be hinting at something remarkable, but the smart response is still the same old one: pay attention, stay ready, and do not let a “below average” label fool you.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
