The U.S. housing market could look very different over the next 10 to 20 years as millions of homes owned by baby boomers are eventually inherited or sold, and real estate investor Michael Bordenaro says the biggest unanswered question is whether younger generations will actually be able to afford them.
In a recent video, Bordenaro argued that baby boomers currently hold an unusually large share of American housing wealth, with roughly one-third of U.S. homes and close to half of the country’s real estate wealth in their hands. He also cited figures showing boomers remain the largest group of current homebuyers, accounting for about 42% of purchases, which makes their eventual exit from the market potentially significant for both supply and prices.
His concern is not that all of those homes will suddenly appear for sale at once, but that a steady wave of estates, inheritances and relocations could gradually add tens of millions of properties to a market where many younger buyers are already struggling with debt, high prices and borrowing costs.
Younger Buyers Are Already Carrying Heavy Debt
Bordenaro framed the coming transition around a line he had seen from another real estate commentator: the largest generation in history may eventually need to sell some of the most expensive homes in history to one of the most indebted generations in history.
He said Gen X households carry about $158,000 in debt on average, while millennials are closer to $132,000, with those totals including not only mortgages but also student loans, credit cards, auto loans and other obligations.
At the same time, Bordenaro said younger generations remain well behind boomers as buyers, with millennials accounting for roughly 26% of purchases and Gen Z about 4%.
He also pointed to the record age of first-time buyers, saying the average reached 40 last year, as another sign that entry into homeownership has been pushed later in life.
That combination matters because the market may eventually have plenty of homes available, yet still struggle if the people most likely to need them do not have the income, savings or borrowing capacity to buy them at current prices.
More Supply Could Force Prices Lower
Bordenaro said the most basic market force in the coming transition will be supply and demand.
If a home enters an estate sale and remains listed because no buyer can afford it, he argued, the eventual solution is usually straightforward: the price comes down until someone is willing to purchase it.
He cited Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, who said many boomer-owned properties may suit millennials with children but could also require significant repairs or renovations after years of deferred maintenance.
Bordenaro agreed with that assessment and said homes needing substantial work would likely have to be priced even more aggressively if buyers are already stretched financially.
He also agreed with Fairweather’s point that location will matter enormously.
Homes in economically strong areas with jobs and continued population demand are likely to hold up better than properties in retirement-heavy communities far from major employment centers.
A house in a desirable coastal or metropolitan market may still attract strong demand, while a similar property in a remote retirement area could sit for longer and require a deeper price cut.
That geographic split is important because the coming inventory increase would not affect every market equally, even if the national numbers become very large.
The “Silver Tsunami” Could Add Millions Of Homes
Bordenaro said the scale of the eventual turnover is what makes the issue so different from a normal housing cycle.
If baby boomers own roughly one-third of U.S. homes today, a substantial portion of that housing stock will eventually have to change hands.
Some properties will be inherited by children or grandchildren who move into them, but Bordenaro cited longstanding estimates suggesting that around three-quarters of inherited homes are eventually sold.
That would still leave tens of millions of homes potentially entering the resale market over a period of decades.
He described the process as part of a broader “silver tsunami” and generational wealth transfer, while cautioning that the inventory would arrive gradually rather than in one sudden flood.
Even so, he believes the cumulative effect could be substantial enough to change what Americans consider a normal number of homes for sale.
Bordenaro said the country currently has around 1.4 million homes on the market, but he could imagine a future in which five or six million listings at a time becomes much more common.
If that happened, he argued, buyers would have far more leverage than they do today.
Bordenaro Thinks Some Homes Could Lose Value
One of Bordenaro’s more controversial arguments is that the coming supply increase could produce an unusually large decline in home values, particularly in places where buyer demand does not keep pace.
He said homeowners have become accustomed to the idea that property values rise over the long run, especially because inflation tends to lift replacement costs and nominal prices.
But he argued that the demographic transition ahead is unusual enough that historical assumptions may not apply in the same way.
His reasoning is that the country has never before had such a large share of homes potentially moving from one aging generation to younger households that are already struggling to afford current prices.
That does not mean a nationwide crash is guaranteed, and the timing will likely matter as much as the total supply, but Bordenaro believes the risk of meaningful price declines is being underestimated.
The more realistic outcome may be uneven rather than universal, with some regions remaining expensive while others face heavier discounting as inventory builds.
Institutional Buyers May Not Be The Answer
Bordenaro also questioned whether large investment firms could absorb much of the future supply.
He referenced restrictions that, in his telling, would limit how many homes some large institutional buyers could own, arguing that firms such as BlackRock, Blackstone or American Homes 4 Rent would not simply step in and purchase everything.
Even if investors did buy a large share of the homes, he said, many would likely be converted into rentals.
A large increase in rental supply could then pressure rents lower, reducing returns for landlords and potentially making home purchases less attractive from an investment standpoint.
That creates an interesting feedback loop: more homes for sale could lower purchase prices, while more investor-owned rentals could also lower rents, giving households less urgency to buy.
For buyers, that would be a very different environment from the one that has defined much of the past decade.
The Housing “Shortage” May Look Very Different Later
Bordenaro rejected the idea that the United States simply does not have enough homes in an absolute sense.
His view is that the real problem is a shortage of homes that are both available for sale and affordable to the people who want to buy them.
He believes the boomer turnover could eventually change both sides of that equation by increasing available inventory and forcing sellers to meet buyers at lower price points.
Fairweather offered a somewhat more optimistic version of the same idea, saying turnover and redevelopment in expensive coastal markets could make some desirable cities more accessible to younger households.
Bordenaro said he could see that happening if enough properties become available.
He also stressed that people who need a home now should not necessarily wait 10 or 20 years for some future demographic shift, because housing decisions depend on personal finances, family needs and location.
Still, he believes younger people who are currently priced out may eventually receive a much better buying opportunity if they use the intervening years to reduce debt, save money and invest.
The larger question, in his view, is not whether baby boomer housing will eventually change hands, because demographic reality makes that unavoidable.
It is whether the next generations will be financially ready when those homes come to market, and how far prices will have to adjust before buyers and sellers can finally meet.
Raised in a small Arizona town, Kevin grew up surrounded by rugged desert landscapes and a family of hunters. His background in competitive shooting and firearms training has made him an authority on self-defense and gun safety. A certified firearms instructor, Kevin teaches others how to properly handle and maintain their weapons, whether for hunting, home defense, or survival situations. His writing focuses on responsible gun ownership, marksmanship, and the role of firearms in personal preparedness.
