Forecasters are growing more confident that El Niño will not only continue through the rest of the year, but could strengthen into one of the most powerful events on record, according to a new FOX Weather report.
Meteorologists Stephen Morgan and Marissa Torres reported that the Climate Prediction Center now gives El Niño a 97% chance of persisting into early spring 2027, with the pattern expected to keep strengthening through the end of the year.
The update also raised the odds of a very strong, or “Super El Niño,” developing later this year, a shift that Morgan and Torres said could have major implications for fall and winter weather patterns.
“The odds have gone up for a Super El Niño and have also sped up as well,” FOX Weather’s Matthew Blue said during the discussion.
El Niño Is Expected To Persist
Torres opened the segment by saying the Climate Prediction Center had released a new update showing El Niño continues and is expected to strengthen through the end of the year.
That persistence is one of the most important parts of the forecast. El Niño was declared earlier in the summer, but the question now is how strong it becomes and how long it lasts.
According to Torres, the CPC now says there is a 97% chance El Niño will persist into early spring 2027.
That number stood out immediately to Morgan, who said he was struck by the strength of the signal.
“I’m struck by a 97% chance that we’re going to have this thing,” Morgan said.
For a climate pattern that can influence storm tracks, temperatures, precipitation, and winter hazards across the United States, that kind of confidence matters. It does not tell every community exactly what weather to expect, but it does make El Niño a central feature of the seasonal outlook.
Super El Niño Odds Are Climbing
The FOX Weather team also discussed the rising odds that the event could reach very strong or “Super El Niño” territory.
Torres said the Climate Prediction Center now gives an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño for the October-through-December period. She noted that such an event could rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record.
Blue said that was one of the most significant changes from the previous update.
He explained that the prior outlook had shown a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the November-to-January period. The new update increased that to 81% and moved the strongest signal earlier, into October through December.
That is a notable change because it suggests forecasters are becoming more confident as the fall and winter seasons get closer.
Blue said the odds have not only gone up, but the timing has sped up as well.
For the public, that means this is no longer just a distant possibility buried in seasonal guidance. The forecast signal is becoming stronger, clearer, and more immediate as the year moves toward winter.
European Guidance Shows A Strong Signal
Morgan also pointed to European seasonal guidance, saying the model output at the start of July showed a striking signal for a very strong event.
He said the European outlook showed a 100% chance of reaching the 2 degrees Celsius or greater threshold, which is often used when discussing very strong El Niño conditions.
“The fact that that’s happening is notable,” Morgan said. “It’s a lot to digest.”
That does not mean every forecast outcome is guaranteed, and Morgan was careful to keep the uncertainty in the conversation. Seasonal models can show strong signals and still miss important regional details.
But when multiple indicators point in the same direction, the confidence grows.
The Climate Prediction Center update, the rising odds in the October-to-December window, and the European guidance all point toward an El Niño that may become unusually strong.
This is where the forecast becomes both useful and complicated. The climate signal is strong, but how that signal translates into day-to-day weather will still depend on other moving pieces in the atmosphere.
What A Very Strong Event Could Mean
Torres said the big question is what a potentially historic El Niño would actually mean.
Morgan answered by noting that there are analog seasons forecasters can compare to, including 1997 into 1998, but he also emphasized that no comparison is perfect.
That is an important caution. El Niño is a major influence, but it is not the only force controlling the weather. Other variables can shape where storms travel, where cold air settles, and where drought or flooding concerns become more likely.
Morgan said the Climate Prediction Center’s discussion made clear that El Niño does not guarantee every expected impact will happen.
“It’s a huge influence,” Morgan said. “It’s a huge tilt on the forecast, but there are other variables that will go into play with it.”
That framing is useful because it prevents the forecast from becoming too simple. A powerful El Niño can raise the odds of certain patterns, but it does not write the entire winter forecast by itself.
Forecasters Are Watching For Historical Strength
Torres said the potential strength of this El Niño makes the forecast especially important to watch.
If the event reaches very strong levels, it could rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record. That kind of setup naturally draws comparisons to past major winters, but Morgan said forecasters still have to see how this particular event interacts with the rest of the atmosphere.
“If this is uncharted in strength, then let’s see how it impacts fall and into winter,” Morgan said.
That line captures the uncertainty well. The odds are rising, and the signal is strong, but the final weather impacts will unfold over time.
A very strong El Niño can influence rainfall, storm tracks, temperature patterns, and severe weather tendencies in different parts of the country. But those impacts can vary widely from region to region.
For viewers, the best takeaway is not to assume one exact outcome, but to understand that the background climate pattern is becoming more important as fall and winter approach.
The Forecast Is Getting More Confident
Blue said the improved forecast confidence is partly tied to the time of year.
He noted that as forecasters move closer to fall and winter, they can gain confidence compared with earlier outlooks. He and Morgan also referred to the spring predictability barrier, a forecasting challenge that can make it harder to project El Niño and La Niña changes several months in advance.
Now that the pattern is clearer and the event is strengthening, the forecast is becoming more confident.
That is why the increase from 63% to 81% for a very strong event matters. It shows that forecasters are not only seeing a strong El Niño signal, but becoming more certain about it.
Still, the FOX Weather team did not present the forecast as a finished story. They said there would be more analysis ahead, including additional discussion with experts involved in the Climate Prediction Center update.
Morgan and Torres made clear that the new numbers are important, but they also said the impacts will need to be studied carefully.
A Major Winter Signal, But Not A Guarantee
The latest update leaves forecasters with a strong message: El Niño is expected to remain in place into early spring 2027, and the odds of a very strong or Super El Niño are rising.
That alone makes the pattern one of the most important weather stories heading into the end of the year.
But the FOX Weather discussion also made clear that a powerful El Niño is not the same as a guaranteed set of impacts. It tilts the odds, strengthens certain signals, and gives forecasters a major clue about the season ahead, but it does not remove uncertainty.
For now, the numbers are the headline.
A 97% chance of persistence into early spring. An 81% chance of very strong El Niño conditions during October through December. A European seasonal signal that Morgan described as startling.
Those are not small shifts.
As Torres and Morgan reported, the odds are rising, and the pattern is strengthening. The next question is how that powerful ocean signal will shape the weather when fall gives way to winter.
Ed spent his childhood in the backwoods of Maine, where harsh winters taught him the value of survival skills. With a background in bushcraft and off-grid living, Ed has honed his expertise in fire-making, hunting, and wild foraging. He writes from personal experience, sharing practical tips and hands-on techniques to thrive in any outdoor environment. Whether it’s primitive camping or full-scale survival, Ed’s advice is grounded in real-life challenges.
