Ryan Hall opens his latest forecast with a line that tells you exactly where his head is at: the jet stream is about to get “really curvy,” and when that happens, he says, that’s when he makes a video.
Ryan Hall doesn’t waste time easing into it, either. He says record-challenging warmth is building across parts of the West and the Heartland early this week, but he also sees a complex winter storm taking aim at the East Coast later in the week.
That combination – spring-like air trying to flex in the middle of winter, while the East braces for a messy storm – sets up the “very different winter pattern” Ryan Hall keeps pointing to.
He frames it like a switch getting flipped. Warmth surges, then the bottom drops out, and the atmosphere tries to stitch together a coastal storm with a lot of moving parts.
A Curvy Jet Stream And A Storm Track That’s Suddenly Alive
Ryan Hall says confidence is increasing for a winter storm somewhere along the I-95 corridor late this week, especially Thursday into Friday.
He specifically highlights big cities in the risk area – Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Boston – and says a heavy wintry mix could transition into accumulating snow in parts of that corridor.
But Ryan Hall is careful about one thing: he keeps reminding viewers that this is an early look, and that the I-95 region is one of the hardest places in the country to forecast.
That’s his way of saying, “Yes, this could get interesting,” while also warning people not to treat any one snow map like it’s a signed contract.
Ryan Hall says the storm looks like it’s coming together, but he also says there are enough variables that it can still lean toward a big coastal hit, or fall apart into something far less dramatic.
And that uncertainty isn’t a small detail – it’s the whole personality of this setup.
The “Three Systems” Problem And Why Phasing Matters
When Ryan Hall pulls up the GFS model, he starts upstream, not on the coast.
He points out a clipper dropping snow into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and parts of northern Wisconsin and Minnesota as the week begins, with impacts also reaching into southern Canada near Toronto up toward Ottawa and Quebec.
Then he zooms out and explains what’s really making him watch this: a sharp cold front, warm moist Gulf air pushing north, and multiple areas of energy that might try to connect.
Ryan Hall says there are basically “three systems” trying to link together, and if two of them phase at the right time, the whole thing could become strong enough to be truly impactful.
That “phase” idea is the big hinge. If pieces connect, you can get one robust storm that hammers the Appalachians up through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England.
If they do not connect, Ryan Hall says you could end up with a disconnected mess—some snow, a lot of rain, and a storm that feels more annoying than memorable.
He even mentions how earlier model runs showed colder air pushing farther south, which would have turned more of the precipitation into snow.
But on the latest run he’s looking at, he sees rain showing up midweek in places that snow lovers were hoping would flip sooner.
Still, Ryan Hall adds one more important note: parts of the Appalachian Mountains could see snow as early as Wednesday, even if lower elevations start out wet.
Snow Potential Along I-95, And A Real Lake-Effect “Shoe-In”
Ryan Hall doesn’t try to pretend this is a clean, easy forecast. He flat-out says models “never do a good job” with certain setups like this, because of all the moving parts and how sensitive the storm is to timing.
That’s why, in his view, the storm outlook is sitting at a 15% probability right now.
But he also says a couple future model runs showing a more connected storm would be enough to make him start thinking “big-time nor’easter.”
At the same time, Ryan Hall warns against hype. He says it’s realistic that this ends up as a nasty, disconnected system where many places get rain, some get snow, and the overall impact is lower than people expect.
He also points to another feature that’s easier to trust: lake-effect snow.
Ryan Hall says once the cold front comes through and a northwest flow sets up over the Great Lakes, the lake-effect machine turns on.
In his telling, that’s the more dependable part of the pattern, because cold air over warm-ish lake water is a classic snow factory.
Ryan Hall shares a snowfall forecast that runs through the weekend, and he describes several zones where snow can stack up over days rather than in one single burst.
He mentions areas in the Appalachians where even valleys could see around 3 inches over time, while higher elevations – like parts of West Virginia – could do better.
Along the I-95 corridor, Ryan Hall puts Washington, D.C. up through Philadelphia and New York in a rough 1-to-2-inch range on the guidance he’s showing, while stressing that number can swing up or down a lot depending on the track and the strength of phasing.
Then he gets specific again with lake effect: he describes another big push of snow north and west of Utica in upstate New York, and he flags Buffalo and areas near Cleveland for additional accumulations through the weekend.
He even mentions a possible hotspot in southwest Michigan where totals could push toward a foot if the lake-effect plume keeps firing.
Ryan Hall calls it one of the trickier storms of the season so far, and he predicts what always happens with tricky setups: a lot of forecasts will be wrong, and a lot of people will be mad about it.
In his view, the miss can go either way – forecast low impact and get a thumper, or forecast a thumper and watch it fizzle.
The “False Spring” Warmth, Then A Hard Winter Lock-In
Ryan Hall says the other headline in this pattern isn’t just snow.
It’s the temperature swing.
He describes a warm surge early in the week as a “false spring,” especially across the nation’s Heartland.
In Ryan Hall’s forecast, temperatures push into the 50s and 60s as far west as Nebraska and South Dakota, which is the kind of warmth that makes people start joking about grilling outside.
Then he points to the cold front behind the deepening East Coast low, and says there’s serious cold air available.
Ryan Hall also says models sometimes underdo how much cold air is really waiting behind these fronts, which is why he thinks some early precipitation in the Ohio Valley could still surprise people and fall as snow.
He admits there’s no way to know for sure yet, but he’s clear about the direction: once that front passes, cold is not just returning – it’s digging in.
Ryan Hall describes temperatures dropping into the teens in Nashville as the cold settles in late week, and he says this cold pattern could lock in through the end of January.
He goes a step further and says it’s possible some areas from the Ohio Valley up through the Northeast may not even get back above freezing after the front pushes through.
That kind of stretch changes daily life fast. Even without a blockbuster snowstorm, a long freeze can create its own problems – slick mornings, frozen pipes, and roads that don’t fully dry out.
Ryan Hall also talks about a big national divide in the pattern: above-average temperatures in the West, below-average temperatures in the East, and even Florida running colder than normal.
In the middle of the country, he mentions strong winds during the transition and an increased fire danger, which sounds strange during “winter talk,” but makes sense when you mix wind, dry fuels, and temperature swings.
Looking Beyond The Late-Week Storm: Clippers, Clippers, Clippers
Ryan Hall doesn’t end his forecast at the late-week coastal system. He keeps going into the extended pattern to show what the models are hinting at next.
He talks about another clipper possibly dropping snow into places like Chicago and St. Louis after the late-week storm, then says the bigger story might be a repeating rhythm.
Ryan Hall calls it “Clipper Town,” describing a parade of systems that keep sliding through, especially in the Great Lakes region.
He even suggests that if the GFS idea is right, southwest Michigan could get buried over the next couple of weeks because the lake-effect plume just won’t quit, and clippers keep refreshing the cold air.
Ryan Hall also circles back to his broader winter call, saying his winter prediction has been “spot on” in key ways, especially with the pattern of recurring clippers.
He admits a couple things have been off, but he reminds viewers winter isn’t over, and he sees plenty of future shots for East Coast snowstorms.
In his view, the ingredients are there – cold air, storm chances, energy moving through – so the main question is whether the pieces connect at the right time.
Ryan Hall says the current GFS run doesn’t show anything massive right after the late-week storm, but he throws in his own playful gut check anyway: his “Big Daddy snowstorm senses” are tingling.
And while that line is funny, the message behind it is serious. Ryan Hall is telling people the pattern is waking up, the storm track is active, and sooner or later one of these setups will “work out” in a bigger way.
For now, his forecast is a balancing act: expect the warmth early, expect the cold to slam back in, watch the coastal storm potential closely, and don’t ignore the lake-effect snow that could quietly pile up while everyone argues about the I-95 snow maps.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
