The Atlantic hurricane season has reached an extraordinary milestone, with meteorologist Ryan Hall saying the basin has gone this deep into September without producing a single hurricane for the first time since 1914, even as the Pacific has been generating some of the strongest storms seen in years.
Hall, host of the weather channel Ryan Hall, Y’all, said the contrast between the two oceans is being driven in large part by an unusually strong El Niño, which has increased destructive wind shear across the Atlantic while creating conditions in the Pacific that have allowed hurricanes such as Polo to strengthen at a remarkable pace.
“We haven’t seen this in over 100 years,” Hall said of the Atlantic’s lack of hurricanes this late in the season, noting that a normal year would usually have produced four or five by now.
The unusual pattern may sound like good news for the East Coast and Gulf Coast, but Hall argued that the lack of tropical storms has created other consequences, including worsening drought in parts of the South and unusually warm coastal waters that could now help fuel a rare September nor’easter.
Atlantic Hurricane Activity Remains Near Historic Lows
Hall said the Atlantic has produced six named storms so far this season, but none has reached hurricane strength.
Tropical Storm Fay came closest, reaching winds of about 70 mph before weakening, just short of the 74 mph threshold needed for hurricane status.
The lack of hurricanes is also reflected in accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, which meteorologists use to estimate the total energy produced by tropical systems over a season.
Hall said a typical Atlantic season would have accumulated around 86 ACE by this point, while 2026 has produced only about 7.
“That’s less than a tenth of normal,” he said.
According to Hall, that is the lowest amount of Atlantic hurricane energy recorded by this stage of the season since 1925.
The larger reason is the atmosphere itself.
Hall explained that El Niño tends to strengthen upper-level winds over the Caribbean and Atlantic, creating wind shear that can tear apart tropical storms before they have time to organize vertically.
This year, western Atlantic wind shear has been the second-highest on record, according to Hall.
He also noted that the atmosphere over the Atlantic has been drier and more stable than usual, while Saharan dust and simple chance have also contributed to the unusually quiet pattern.
El Niño Is Becoming Exceptionally Strong
The Pacific side of the equation looks very different.
Hall said waters in the main part of the Pacific used to measure El Niño recently reached about 3 degrees Celsius above normal, tying the strongest weekly reading ever observed.
The only other time conditions reached that level was in November 2015.
This year, Hall said the same reading arrived months earlier, which he believes puts the developing El Niño on track to become one of the strongest, and possibly the strongest, on record by the end of the year.
That matters because El Niño does not affect every ocean basin in the same way.
While it often suppresses Atlantic hurricanes through wind shear, it can make the eastern Pacific much more favorable for tropical development by warming the water and changing the upper-level wind pattern.
Hall said water off Mexico has been close to 88 degrees, creating an environment capable of supporting explosive strengthening.
Hurricane Polo became the clearest example.
Polo Went From Tropical Storm to Monster Hurricane
Hall described Polo’s rise as one of the most dramatic intensification events seen in the eastern Pacific.
The storm began the week as a tropical storm with winds around 45 mph.
Roughly 24 hours later, it had exploded to around 150 mph.
By the following afternoon, maximum winds had reached approximately 180 mph.
Hall said only a handful of eastern Pacific hurricanes have strengthened that quickly.
Aircraft measurements also found an extraordinarily low central pressure of about 892 millibars, making Polo one of the most intense storms ever observed in the basin.
Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 went lower, according to Hall.
The comparison to 2015 is difficult to ignore because that year also featured an extremely strong El Niño.
Polo is expected to move toward Baja California over the weekend, where it should weaken, but Hall said its leftover moisture could eventually be pulled north into a slow-moving storm system over the Four Corners.
If that happens, moisture that originated inside a Category 5 hurricane off Mexico could end up producing heavy rain across the central United States.
Both major forecast models were showing a substantial rain event around Kansas City by the middle of next week, with some projections producing two to four inches.
Hawaii Faces a Separate Hurricane Threat
Polo is not the only Pacific storm Hall is watching.
He also highlighted Hurricane Nolo, which could approach the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend.
Hall said the entire island was under a hurricane watch, with Nolo potentially strengthening to around 115 mph while passing roughly 80 miles from the coast.
If that track verifies, it would bring a hurricane of that strength closer to the Big Island than any comparable storm in the historical record Hall referenced.
The previous benchmark was Hurricane Dot in 1959, which passed roughly 107 miles away.
The rainfall threat may be just as serious as the wind.
Hall said parts of the Big Island could receive more than 20 inches of rain, with isolated totals approaching three feet.
That would create a major risk of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in areas where tropical moisture is forced upward by Hawaii’s steep terrain.
The Pacific, in other words, is doing almost the opposite of the Atlantic: storms are not merely forming, but in some cases rapidly strengthening.
Quiet Tropics Have Helped Dry Out the South
The lack of Atlantic storms has also contributed to a growing drought problem.
Hall said Tennessee went from almost no drought to about half the state becoming significantly dry in roughly a month, while Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas have also seen conditions worsen.
Nashville received only about 0.08 inches of rain during the previous 30 days, according to Hall.
He said a persistent dome of high pressure has been the main cause, but the lack of tropical systems has removed one of the usual ways that pattern eventually breaks down.
In many years, moisture from the Gulf or Atlantic eventually pushes underneath the ridge and delivers widespread rain.
This season, repeated tropical disturbances have been weakened by El Niño-driven shear before they could reach the South.
That is one of the more interesting contradictions in the current pattern.
The same El Niño that has helped protect parts of the Atlantic coastline from hurricanes has also reduced one source of late-summer rainfall, allowing drought to worsen.
Hall expects that relationship to reverse later in the fall, when El Niño typically shifts the storm track farther south and becomes a source of increased rain rather than suppression.
Rare September Nor’easter Could Bring Flooding
The East Coast faces a different problem this weekend as a slow-moving nor’easter strengthens offshore.
Hall called the storm highly unusual for September and said its slow movement could make coastal flooding worse because onshore winds may continue pushing water toward the same beaches through several tide cycles.
New Jersey and Delaware could see some of the most significant coastal impacts around Friday night and Saturday morning, when higher tides combine with a full moon.
Hall said places such as Atlantic City and Cape May could experience moderate flooding, with major flooding not entirely out of the question.
Farther north, Boston may receive three to five inches of rain, while parts of the South Shore near Plymouth could approach six inches.
Cape Cod and Nantucket may also see wind gusts above 70 mph.
Hall said he was increasingly concerned that early forecasts might be underestimating the storm because the water off the Carolinas is exceptionally warm for late September.
In a more active hurricane season, earlier tropical systems might have churned up and cooled those waters.
Instead, the ocean has remained unusually warm, leaving more energy available for the nor’easter.
That is another indirect consequence of the quiet Atlantic season.
First Real Fall Air Arrives, but It Will Not Stay Everywhere
The storm is also helping pull much cooler Canadian air southward.
Hall said a powerful area of high pressure over Canada is forcing fall-like temperatures into much of the eastern United States, with highs in the 60s from Chicago through New York and Boston.
Even Nashville and Atlanta could spend parts of the weekend in the upper 70s after much hotter weather only days earlier.
For the Great Lakes and Northeast, Hall expects the cooler pattern to hold into next week.
The South and Mid-Atlantic, however, could see another brief warm-up around Tuesday and Wednesday, with Nashville approaching 90 and Atlanta returning to the mid-80s.
Another front around the start of October should then push cooler weather south again, potentially reaching Texas.
Hall said the European model was showing Dallas dropping from the 90s into the 70s.
That front could also finally bring meaningful rain back to parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama, though Hall cautioned that it would not be enough to erase the drought immediately.
The broader October-through-December outlook favors above-normal rainfall from Texas across the Southeast, with some of the strongest wet signals in Georgia, South Carolina and Florida.
The same El Niño now suppressing Atlantic hurricanes may therefore become the feature that eventually brings widespread rain back to the South.
For Hall, that is the central lesson of this unusual season: no hurricanes does not necessarily mean quiet weather overall.
The Atlantic may be historically inactive, but the Pacific is producing extreme storms, the South is drying out, and the East Coast is dealing with a September nor’easter strengthened by unusually warm water.
The atmosphere is simply shifting its energy somewhere else
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
