A large storm system developing across the central United States is expected to split the country between soaking rain and cooler weather in the Midwest while intense late-season heat continues farther south, with meteorologist Max Schuster warning that parts of the Plains and Midwest could also face a conditional severe-weather threat.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the storm will become one of the main weather stories heading into the weekend, with thunderstorms stretching from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while a strong heat dome remains locked over Texas, Oklahoma and much of the lower Mississippi Valley.
The setup could bring damaging winds, hail, isolated tornadoes and locally excessive rainfall, although Schuster emphasized that the exact severe-weather threat will depend heavily on where storms manage to form.
Friday Brings A Tricky Severe Weather Setup
Schuster said a strengthening area of low pressure will organize across the central United States on Friday, creating a potentially favorable environment for severe thunderstorms across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and possibly northern Illinois.
The biggest question is whether storms can develop far enough south to reach the most unstable air.
Forecast guidance highlighted by Schuster showed a large corridor of instability developing around Omaha and Des Moines, with some areas potentially reaching around 4,000 joules per kilogram of instability.
That is a considerable amount of atmospheric fuel.
Wind shear is also expected to be strong enough to organize thunderstorms if they form in the right place.
Schuster said some guidance even showed elevated significant-tornado parameters near Des Moines by Friday evening, although he repeatedly cautioned that this is a conditional risk rather than a guarantee that tornado-producing storms will develop.
“The big question mark is, are storms going to form?” he said.
If the main thunderstorms remain farther north over Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa, they would likely become more elevated, reducing the tornado threat while still allowing for damaging winds and hail.
If a surface-based storm forms closer to Omaha or Des Moines, however, Schuster said it could quickly become much more concerning.
Saturday Keeps The Midwest Active
The storm system will not disappear after Friday.
Schuster expects widespread rain and thunderstorms to move through northern Illinois, Michigan and Indiana on Saturday while another corridor of unstable air develops farther southwest.
Areas from Kansas City through Des Moines, Davenport and Peoria could become the focus for another round of severe storms.
Again, the forecast depends on whether thunderstorms can develop inside the warm and unstable air rather than remaining north of it.
If storms do form along that southern corridor, Schuster said damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two could occur.
Chicago may see thunderstorms later Saturday into early Sunday, but Schuster believes the tornado risk there should remain more limited because temperatures are expected to be somewhat cooler.
Even without widespread severe weather, the system is likely to make for an unsettled weekend across a large part of the Midwest.
Heavy Rain Could Become The Bigger Problem
Schuster said the most important hazard may ultimately be flooding rather than tornadoes.
Some computer guidance was producing extremely high rainfall estimates across eastern Iowa, including several inches around Mason City and Cedar Rapids.
One model even showed a localized maximum approaching a foot of rain north of Des Moines.
Schuster was careful not to present that extreme amount as a firm forecast, noting that other models showed much lower totals.
Still, he said there is a strong enough signal for heavy rain that people across eastern Iowa, Wisconsin and surrounding areas should pay attention.
Wisconsin could receive a widespread one to three inches of rain, while other sections of the Midwest, Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley could also pick up substantial totals through Sunday morning.
That makes flooding a concern even in places that avoid the strongest storms.
Sometimes a weather setup does not need widespread tornadoes to become disruptive. Several days of repeated thunderstorms moving over the same areas can create its own set of serious problems.
Storms Spread Into The Ohio Valley
By Sunday morning, Schuster expects widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the Ohio Valley.
Severe weather should become less organized by then, but rain will remain widespread from the Texas Panhandle northeast toward the Ohio Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms could continue Sunday before shifting farther east early next week.
Schuster said Monday and Tuesday may keep much of the activity focused near and east of the Mississippi River, where isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible.
The larger weather pattern then becomes considerably more uncertain during the middle of next week.
Some forecast models expand the high-pressure ridge back into the Great Plains, while others keep it centered farther southeast.
Where that ridge ultimately settles will determine not only which parts of the country turn hotter, but also where future storm systems are able to travel.
Heat Dome Keeps The South Feeling Like Summer
While the Midwest deals with rain and cooler air, the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will remain locked in a very different pattern.
Schuster said a powerful high-pressure system extending from Texas toward the Carolinas will maintain hot and humid conditions through much of the weekend.
Triple-digit temperatures are possible in parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with humidity making conditions feel even more oppressive.
Saturday and Sunday are expected to remain hot across the South, aside from brief localized relief where thunderstorms form.
That contrast is what makes the national setup so striking.
While parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin struggle to reach much beyond cool fall-like temperatures beneath clouds and rain, areas farther south will continue dealing with weather that feels more like midsummer.
By the end of the weekend, a cold front should push somewhat farther south, allowing places such as Chicago and Detroit to cool off.
Next Week Could Bring An Even Sharper Divide
Schuster said the country may become even more divided early next week.
Some parts of the Midwest and Northeast could wake up to temperatures in the 40s, while areas across the Southeast and southern Plains remain firmly in the 80s.
Phoenix, for example, could still be extremely warm even during the morning.
A broader pool of cooler air is expected across parts of the Midwest and Northeast Monday through Wednesday, while the South remains much hotter.
Beyond the middle of next week, confidence drops sharply.
Schuster said the position of the high-pressure system will be crucial because if it expands farther west and north, another significant heat wave could spread across the Great Plains, Midwest and possibly eventually the East Coast.
At the same time, northern areas should still see occasional cold fronts move through, preventing the heat from becoming equally intense everywhere.
Tropics Could Become More Interesting Late In September
Schuster is also watching signs that tropical activity may become somewhat more favorable near Central America and the Gulf of Mexico later in September.
He stressed that nothing specific can be forecast yet.
One long-range GFS model run suggested that a disturbance could eventually form near Central America before moving toward the Gulf, but Schuster called the exact scenario highly unlikely because it remains too far into the future.
“There is no way in the world this exact scenario is going to happen,” he said of the model depiction.
Still, he believes there is at least a small chance that tropical development could occur during the final week of September.
A large circulation near Central America can sometimes help generate tropical systems this time of year, and Schuster said that possibility is worth monitoring as the month progresses.
However, strong wind shear has been a major limiting factor across the Atlantic this season and could easily disrupt anything that tries to organize.
Schuster said the Atlantic has remained unusually quiet, with tropical development repeatedly struggling against hostile upper-level winds.
For now, the more immediate focus remains on the continental United States, where a large storm system is preparing to bring sharply different weather to different regions.
The Midwest faces several days of rain, possible flooding and pockets of severe storms, while the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley remain trapped beneath intense heat.
Schuster expects that split pattern to remain an important feature into next week, making the transition toward fall anything but uniform across the country.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
