Meteorologist Max Schuster says an unusually active late-September weather pattern is setting up across the United States, with a powerful Pacific hurricane, a developing nor’easter and another push of colder air all capable of producing significant impacts over the next several days.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said Hurricane Polo had become the strongest hurricane on Earth and one of the most intense eastern Pacific hurricanes on record by pressure, while a separate storm along the East Coast could bring heavy rain, damaging wind and coastal flooding into the weekend.
He also warned that moisture tied to Polo may eventually help fuel additional storm systems across the Southwest and Plains, setting up a pattern that looks far more active than many people would expect this early in fall.
“This should not be happening in September,” Schuster said in describing the broader setup, which combines tropical moisture, a nor’easter and an advancing cold front within the same stretch of weather.
Hurricane Polo Remains an Extreme Pacific Storm
Schuster said Polo had intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with a minimum pressure around 892 millibars, making it the second-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record by pressure behind Hurricane Patricia in 2015.
The storm also reached maximum sustained winds of around 180 mph, with gusts exceeding 210 mph, after strengthening from a tropical storm to a high-end Category 5 hurricane in roughly 26 hours.
He described that rate of intensification as extraordinary.
Polo was expected to continue moving north and northwest before reaching a point where its track becomes much less certain.
Some model guidance keeps the hurricane farther offshore and eventually turns it west, while another group of models bends it north toward Baja California later in the weekend or early next week.
Schuster estimated roughly a 30 percent chance that Polo ultimately heads farther out to sea.
If the storm turns toward Baja California, it should weaken as it moves north, but that would also create a better pathway for deep tropical moisture to move into the United States.
That moisture is one of the biggest downstream concerns.
Southwest Flooding Could Worsen
Schuster said moisture associated with Polo is already reaching parts of the desert Southwest, where flooding has become an ongoing problem.
Arizona and New Mexico remain among the areas most vulnerable to additional heavy rain, while Texas and Oklahoma could see their rain chances increase later as more Pacific moisture is pulled northward.
He said the immediate connection between Polo and the United States may weaken somewhat over the weekend as upper-level winds change, but that does not mean the tropical influence disappears.
Instead, the more significant surge may arrive during the middle or latter part of next week if Polo drifts closer to Baja California.
At that point, the storm’s moisture could become absorbed into a larger weather system moving across the Plains.
Schuster said that setup could produce multiple stronger storm systems during the first week of October.
Before then, he also expects another Plains storm around Monday or Tuesday, with at least an isolated risk of severe weather.
The exact details remain uncertain, but the broader pattern points toward more moisture and more storm opportunities across a region that has already been dealing with heavy rain in places.
Another Tropical System Could Threaten Hawaii
Polo is not the only Pacific system Schuster is watching.
He said confidence is increasing that another tropical storm will form south of Hawaii, with some models showing the system becoming a hurricane before moving north.
Most guidance keeps it around tropical-storm strength or perhaps a low-end Category 1 hurricane, though a few models intensify it as far as Category 3.
The larger issue is track uncertainty.
Some solutions keep the system several hundred miles south of Hawaii, while others bring it much closer to the Big Island.
Schuster said the system could approach the region over the weekend, making it something residents should continue watching even though the forecast is not yet settled.
That is another sign of just how active the Pacific basin has become.
While one hurricane is already influencing weather thousands of miles away, another tropical system may be developing close enough to Hawaii to create a separate set of concerns.
Nor’easter Could Pound the Northeast
On the opposite side of the country, Schuster said a nor’easter is expected to strengthen along the East Coast and could become a major weather problem by Friday and Saturday.
The storm should organize east of the Carolinas before deepening into a stronger low-pressure system, potentially reaching around 990 millibars by Friday evening.
From there, it is expected to move slowly north.
That slow movement is important because it gives the storm more time to produce heavy rain, large waves and prolonged wind along the coast.
Schuster said coastal areas from Virginia Beach north toward New York City and New England could see rough surf and increasingly strong onshore winds.
The highest flood risk appears to be focused on southeastern New England, including Nantucket, Cape Cod, Rhode Island and parts of Connecticut.
One European model solution brought the storm very close to land by Sunday morning, with the center near Delaware or New Jersey.
If that track verifies, New Jersey and nearby areas could also experience stronger winds and more significant coastal impacts.
Cape Cod Could See Several Inches of Rain
Rainfall amounts remain highly dependent on the exact track, but Schuster said parts of coastal New England could receive some of the heaviest totals.
He estimated that areas near Boston, Cape Cod and Nantucket could see roughly three to seven inches of rain if the storm develops as expected.
New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland would likely see lower totals, more in the range of one to two inches.
Even with uncertainty, that is enough rain to create localized flooding, especially if it falls over a short period or combines with coastal effects.
Wind is another major concern.
Schuster said blended National Weather Service guidance was showing peak gusts around 40 to 50 mph near Cape Cod, but he believes that may underestimate the storm.
He said gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible in southeastern New England if the low strengthens and passes close enough to the coast.
Boston, Hartford and Providence could also see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.
The worst conditions, in his view, are most likely from late Friday into Saturday morning.
Another Shot of Cooler Air Follows
The stormy pattern will also be accompanied by a noticeable temperature change.
Schuster said cooler air wrapping around the developing East Coast storm will keep much of the Northeast and Ohio Valley below average into the weekend, with morning temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s in many areas.
The Pacific Northwest should also turn much colder, with highs and lows falling well into the 40s and 50s in some locations.
Another cold front is then expected to drop out of Canada Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of cooler temperatures to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
By the middle of next week, that front could push as far south as the Texas Panhandle.
Schuster said even Dallas-Fort Worth may finally have a chance to fall below 70 degrees during the following stretch.
That would mark a meaningful change for areas that have been holding onto late-season warmth.
An Unusually Busy Start to Fall
The broader message from Schuster is that the final days of September are shaping up to be anything but quiet.
A Category 5 hurricane in the eastern Pacific is sending moisture toward the Southwest, another tropical system may develop near Hawaii, a nor’easter is expected to strengthen along the East Coast, and cooler air is pushing steadily farther south.
Not every model agrees on every detail, and Schuster repeatedly noted that storm tracks could still change.
But the overall pattern is already unusually active.
The East Coast faces the most immediate risk from heavy rain, strong wind and coastal impacts, while the Southwest and southern Plains may deal with repeated rounds of tropical moisture and flooding.
At the same time, the northern half of the country is beginning to feel a stronger seasonal transition toward fall.
For late September, that combination is a lot to happen at once, and Schuster’s forecast suggests the weather may stay unsettled well into the first week of October.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
