Meteorologist Max Schuster says an extraordinary weather pattern is unfolding across the United States, with the Atlantic hurricane season setting a 112-year benchmark at the same time a powerful Pacific hurricane, a possible nor’easter and a broader temperature shift begin shaping the next several days.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the Atlantic has gone through September 21 without producing a single hurricane, something he said has not happened since 1914, while the eastern Pacific has been moving in almost the opposite direction under the influence of a strengthening El Niño.
“For the first time in 112 years, the Atlantic Ocean has made history,” Schuster said, describing the quiet Atlantic as one of several unusual developments unfolding at once.
He emphasized that the lack of Atlantic hurricanes does not mean the overall weather pattern is calm, because the Pacific remains highly active and a strengthening storm near Mexico could eventually help send tropical moisture into the Southwest and southern Plains.
Atlantic Sets a 112-Year Benchmark
Schuster said the Atlantic basin had still not produced a hurricane through September 21, making 2026 the first year since 1914 to reach that point without one.
He called the statistic remarkable because, between 1915 and 2025, more than 430 Atlantic hurricanes had formed by that date across all those seasons combined, averaging roughly four hurricanes per season by late September.
According to Schuster, only three years in the historical record had reached September 21 without an Atlantic hurricane, and the other two occurred before 1914.
He attributed much of this year’s unusual quiet to exceptionally strong wind shear across the Atlantic, which can disrupt tropical systems before they organize into hurricanes.
Schuster said there were still no obvious signs that the Atlantic would suddenly become much more active in the immediate future.
That makes the contrast with the Pacific even more noticeable, because while the Atlantic remains unusually quiet, the eastern Pacific is producing much stronger tropical activity.
Hurricane Polo Could Feed Moisture Toward the Southwest
Schuster said Hurricane Polo was rapidly intensifying in the eastern Pacific and was expected to become an extremely powerful hurricane as it tracked near the coast of Mexico.
He described the intensification as unusually fast, saying the storm was making the jump from tropical-storm strength toward Category 5 intensity over a period of roughly a day and a half.
Recent infrared imagery, he said, showed the hurricane becoming better organized, including signs of an eye developing.
The storm was expected to make its closest approach to parts of Mexico through Wednesday and Thursday while remaining well offshore, with the center potentially staying around 200 miles from the coast.
Schuster said that track should reduce the risk of a direct major landfall, though heavy rain and flooding could still affect parts of the Mexican coast.
More importantly for the United States, he said upper-level winds could begin pulling moisture away from the system later in the week and directing it northward.
That moisture may eventually reach Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma, with rain chances increasing across the desert Southwest and southern Plains late this weekend and into the beginning of next week.
Schuster also noted that the Dallas–Fort Worth area recently received its first measurable rainfall in 67 days and said much more moisture could be on the way if the Pacific pattern unfolds as expected.
The setup could bring both benefits and hazards, since badly needed rain may help cool areas that have endured persistent heat, while locally heavy rainfall could still create flooding problems.
Nor’easter Risk Increasing Along the East Coast
At the same time, Schuster said a separate storm system is expected to organize along the East Coast and could strengthen into a nor’easter by the weekend.
He explained that a slow-moving area of moisture will continue lifting north along the coast from the Carolinas toward southern New England, while a large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes may help trap the storm and prevent it from quickly escaping either east or west.
That blocking pattern could give the system more time to intensify.
Most forecast models, including the European model Schuster highlighted, showed the storm strengthening through Thursday, Friday and Saturday before potentially moving close to Long Island and southern New England.
The exact track remains highly uncertain, however, and Schuster repeatedly stressed that relatively small changes would have a major effect on rainfall, wind and coastal impacts.
One scenario would keep the heaviest rain largely offshore.
Another could bring the storm much closer to New England and the New York City area, where stronger winds, coastal erosion and heavier rainfall would become much more likely.
Schuster estimated the chance of a nor’easter developing this weekend at around 60 percent.
That is high enough to take seriously but still leaves plenty of room for the forecast to change, which is important because model guidance has been inconsistent from one run to another.
New England Could See Heavy Rain and Damaging Winds
If the storm tracks close enough to the coast, Schuster said the impacts could become significant.
He expects a broader area from the Carolinas through Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey to receive around one to three inches of rain, while a stronger nor’easter tracking near New England could produce more than six inches in some locations.
The wind forecast is similarly dependent on the exact track.
Schuster said some model guidance has shown gusts of 60 to 70 mph near Cape Cod, Nantucket and Providence, while coastal areas could see a broader range of roughly 60 to 80 mph if the storm strengthens near land.
Even farther inland, gusts of 40 to 60 mph could be strong enough to knock out power.
Schuster recommended that residents in areas that may be affected have basic emergency supplies ready, including flashlights, charged radios and first-aid essentials, while continuing to watch the forecast as the storm develops.
This is one of those situations where preparedness matters more than certainty, because the system does not need to follow the most aggressive model scenario to create meaningful problems along the coast.
Cooler Air Spreads East While Heat Holds Elsewhere
The developing East Coast storm is also expected to help pull cooler air southward.
Schuster said much of the Northeast, Midwest and northern Plains should continue seeing more seasonal temperatures, while the southern Plains may remain warmer for longer.
By Saturday morning, parts of the Appalachians and nearby regions could fall into the 40s and 50s.
Higher elevations in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest may even see some mountain snow over the weekend.
Farther north, areas around Fargo and Minneapolis could warm again later in the weekend, although Schuster said temperatures would still be much more comfortable than the intense heat seen earlier.
The more interesting signal may arrive during the first week of October.
Both the European and GFS models have been showing a stronger surge of colder air moving into a large portion of the country east of the Rockies, and Schuster said confidence is gradually increasing that the first truly strong autumn cold front could arrive around that period.
He cautioned that the forecast is still nearly two weeks away, so the timing and intensity remain uncertain.
Even so, the agreement between multiple models is enough to make the possibility worth watching.
A Very Uneven Weather Pattern Across the Country
Schuster’s forecast paints a picture of a nation divided between very different weather regimes.
The Atlantic is unusually quiet by hurricane standards, the Pacific is producing a rapidly intensifying major hurricane, the East Coast may face an early-season nor’easter, and the interior United States is moving toward a broader transition from lingering summer heat into more typical fall conditions.
The developing El Niño appears to be playing an important role in that contrast, with Schuster describing the Pacific as exceptionally active while the Atlantic struggles under hostile wind shear.
That does not mean every piece of the forecast is locked in.
The nor’easter remains sensitive to track changes, Pacific moisture may affect some areas much more than others, and the stronger October cold front is still far enough away that later forecasts may look different.
What is clear, in Schuster’s view, is that the atmosphere is entering a much more active phase.
After a historically quiet Atlantic through late September, the weather story for the rest of the month may be defined less by tropical activity there and more by a Pacific hurricane, a possible coastal storm in the Northeast and a growing shift toward colder autumn air across much of the country.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
