A rapidly strengthening El Niño could reshape weather across the United States through the rest of fall and into winter, with meteorologist Max Schuster warning that an increasingly active subtropical jet may bring heavy rain, sharp temperature divides, severe thunderstorms and even early mountain snow to different parts of the country.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the Pacific is showing signs of an unusually powerful El Niño that is intensifying faster than expected and could soon become one of the strongest on record.
“This El Niño pattern is about to get pretty wild,” Schuster said.
The next several weeks, he said, could offer an early preview of how dramatically the atmosphere may change as fall deepens.
A Powerful El Niño Is Rapidly Strengthening
Schuster said unusually warm water across the equatorial Pacific is driving the developing pattern, with some sea-surface temperature anomalies near South America running several degrees Celsius above normal.
He described the warmth as extraordinary and said it is helping build what could soon qualify as a super El Niño.
According to Schuster, the strength of the event matters because it can influence the position and intensity of the jet stream, storm tracks, temperatures and tropical activity far beyond the Pacific Ocean itself.
He believes October and November could become particularly interesting across the United States as a split-flow pattern starts to develop.
That setup involves different branches of the jet stream operating across separate parts of the country, allowing cooler air to settle farther north while warm, moisture-rich air remains entrenched farther south.
Schuster said that contrast may become increasingly noticeable over the next few weeks.
Cooler North, Hotter South
One of the clearest changes Schuster expects is a widening temperature divide across the country.
Cooler air should increasingly settle over parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, while much warmer conditions remain across the southern Plains, Desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast.
That does not mean every day will follow the same pattern.
Schuster stressed that fall will still bring large temperature swings, with cities such as Chicago potentially moving between very chilly and unusually warm conditions over relatively short periods.
But the broader tendency, he said, favors below-average temperatures more often across the northern tier and above-average temperatures more often farther south.
The result could look almost winterlike at times, even while parts of Texas and the Southeast continue dealing with heat.
That kind of split is what makes the upcoming pattern so interesting. Instead of one dominant air mass taking over the country, different regions may experience almost opposite versions of fall.
Pacific Storm Could Send Tropical Moisture Into The Southwest
Schuster is also watching a developing tropical system in the eastern Pacific that could eventually become a hurricane near Mexico.
If that system tracks toward Baja California, he said its moisture could get pulled north into the southwestern United States during the final week of September.
That could bring a substantial increase in rainfall across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.
Schuster said some model guidance shows enough tropical moisture moving north to create flooding concerns, especially if several rounds of rain affect the same areas.
The Southwest is one of two major regions he expects to see elevated rainfall over the next couple of weeks.
The other is the Midwest.
An active jet stream should repeatedly send storm systems across the central United States, potentially delivering several inches of rain in some areas.
By the middle and end of the upcoming week, Schuster expects moisture from the Pacific tropical system to become increasingly involved in the central U.S. weather pattern.
October Could Become Much More Active
Schuster said the subtropical jet should gradually dip farther south as September ends, helping establish a much more active pattern heading into October.
That could mean repeated storm systems rather than one isolated event.
He expects waves of Pacific moisture to continue entering the country, potentially bringing heavy rain, severe weather opportunities and eventually more mountain snow across the West.
“This should lead to a very active weather pattern as we head into the month of October,” Schuster said.
The exact placement of each storm will still vary, especially this far in advance, but the overall signal for a busy pattern appears increasingly clear to him.
He also noted that ensemble guidance, which blends many different model runs together, supports the idea of several storm systems crossing the country over the next week or two.
That does not guarantee every individual storm shown by one model will happen.
It does suggest that the atmosphere may remain energetic enough to keep producing new systems.
East Coast Could Face A Nor’easter Risk
The East Coast remains more uncertain.
Schuster said there is a possibility that a nor’easter-type system could develop during the upcoming week and bring heavy rain somewhere along the coast.
The impact would depend heavily on the exact track.
If the system stays farther offshore, rainfall could be limited.
If it comes closer to the coast, some areas could see much heavier precipitation.
Schuster said the East Coast is therefore more of a “wild card” compared with the clearer rainfall signals across the Southwest and Midwest.
That uncertainty is worth watching because coastal systems can change quickly when interacting with a strengthening fall jet stream.
Atlantic Remains Quiet While Pacific Stays Active
Another striking part of the pattern is the contrast between the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
Schuster said the eastern Pacific has remained highly active, with multiple tropical systems and more development expected.
The Atlantic, meanwhile, has been suppressed by exceptionally strong wind shear.
He said the basin could approach a historic milestone with no recorded hurricanes by late September if the quiet pattern continues.
For residents along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, that quiet stretch has obviously been welcome.
Still, Schuster cautioned that the Atlantic season is not necessarily finished.
He said the Central American Gyre could still spin up one or two systems later in the season, particularly from the western Caribbean.
The waters there remain very warm and largely untouched by major storms.
If the strong wind shear relaxes even temporarily, development could become more possible.
Schuster does not currently expect a major Atlantic outbreak, but he said the environment cannot be ignored entirely.
Early Snow Could Become More Likely In The Rockies
Snow is still too far out to discuss with much confidence east of the Rockies, Schuster said, but the higher elevations in the West may begin seeing more meaningful snowfall by early October.
Some mountain areas have already had light snow, which is not unusual for this time of year.
The bigger question is whether colder air and a more amplified jet stream can combine to produce stronger early-season mountain storms.
Schuster said there are at least growing signs that the Rockies could see more significant snow opportunities during the first week of October.
He was careful not to extend that forecast into the central Plains or Midwest yet.
At roughly two weeks out, the details remain too uncertain.
That restraint is important because early-season snow forecasts can change dramatically depending on the exact position of the jet stream.
Schuster Says Winter Could Be “Wild”
The larger story is not just what happens over the next week.
Schuster believes the strengthening El Niño could have much broader effects through late fall and winter.
He said the event is intensifying faster than expected and is getting close to the strongest El Niño levels ever observed.
That could have major global implications for storm tracks and temperature patterns.
For the United States, Schuster expects the coming weeks to offer a better sense of how the winter setup will develop.
The fall pattern is beginning to show more consistency, he said, and that can provide clues about what might follow later.
Still, he emphasized that the exact winter forecast remains uncertain.
The atmosphere is moving toward a strong El Niño configuration, but individual storm tracks, snow totals and regional temperature swings cannot yet be pinned down.
What does look increasingly likely is a much more amplified and active pattern.
The north may repeatedly tap cooler air.
The south could stay unusually warm.
The Southwest and central states may deal with repeated surges of moisture.
And as the subtropical jet grows stronger, the country may move into a stretch where heavy rain, severe storms and early-season snow can all appear within the same broad pattern.
Schuster’s message is not that every region will see extreme weather at once.
It is that the atmosphere is becoming more dynamic.
And if the super El Niño continues strengthening at its current pace, he believes the rest of fall could become far more active than the country has seen so far.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
