Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says El Niño has officially arrived, and the latest data suggests this event is strengthening faster than even some aggressive forecasts expected.
In a new JustWeather breakdown, Kegges said NOAA declared the start of El Niño on June 11, and he pointed to a bright band of warmer-than-normal water stretching across the equatorial Pacific from near South America toward Hawaii. That warm strip, especially in the Niño 3.4 region, is the key area meteorologists watch when measuring El Niño conditions.
“We knew it was coming,” Kegges said. “We knew it was coming on fast. And we know this El Niño is going to be very strong.”
But the newest model data, he said, is now pushing the event into territory that could challenge or even exceed the strongest modern El Niño events on record.
A Rapidly Strengthening El Niño
Kegges said the latest European ensemble forecast is “mindblowing” because many model members show the Niño 3.4 region climbing above 3 degrees Celsius warmer than normal.
He compared that to the 2015-2016 El Niño, which he described as the strongest in the modern record going back to 1950, peaking around 2.75 degrees Celsius above normal.
According to Kegges, the current forecast average is pushing close to 3.75 degrees Celsius, with some model members going above 4 degrees.
“We’re not talking about possibly breaking the record here,” Kegges said. “We’re talking about potentially destroying anything that we’ve ever seen.”
That is a major statement, and it is one worth treating carefully. Long-range climate and ocean forecasts can shift, and Kegges himself noted later in the video that he does not like calling anything a “slam dunk” in weather this far out.
Still, his point was clear: the models are not backing away from a strong El Niño. They are leaning harder into it.
What El Niño Usually Means For The U.S.
Kegges said the most important impacts will likely show up later in the year and into early 2027, especially during the cool season.
For the United States, he described the classic El Niño winter pattern as wetter and cooler than normal across the southern tier, while the northern tier often turns warmer and drier than normal.
That could mean a tough winter for snow lovers across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and parts of the northern Rockies.
“If you like the snow, we’re not going to get much of it across the northern Plains, upper Midwest, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana, things like that,” Kegges said.
He also said ski resorts could struggle if the dry and warm northern pattern takes hold.
Across the southern United States, Kegges pointed to the opposite concern. He said the Southeast, including Florida, may need to watch for wetter conditions and “big time severe weather potential” as the pattern matures.
That is one of the tricky things about El Niño. It can reduce some risks in one part of the country while raising others somewhere else, especially once stronger storm tracks begin to organize during the cooler months.
Hurricane Season And North America
Kegges said El Niño can also shape hurricane season by changing where tropical activity is favored.
He explained that El Niño tends to make the Pacific hurricane season more active, while helping “put a lid” on the Atlantic season. That does not mean the Atlantic becomes harmless, but the stronger wind shear often linked to El Niño can make it harder for storms to develop or strengthen there.
For Hawaii, Kegges highlighted a strong dry signal as the pattern develops. He said one of El Niño’s big “calling cards” later in the year is very dry conditions around Hawaii, while heavier rain shifts toward the equatorial Pacific where the warm water supports more thunderstorm activity.
Alaska and Canada, meanwhile, may feel the pattern more through warmth than rain. Kegges pointed to model data showing above-normal temperatures across the Arctic, Canada and much of Alaska through winter and into early spring.
He described that setup as a “blowtorch” pattern across Canada and Alaska, especially if El Niño becomes as strong as some current models suggest.
South America Faces Flood And Drought Risks
Kegges said South America is one of the regions where El Niño can bring some of the most serious impacts.
Along the Pacific side of the continent, including Peru, Ecuador and northern Chile, he said warmer water can help produce flooding rains. He also warned of trouble for fisheries because El Niño can reduce the normal upwelling of colder, nutrient-rich water from deeper in the ocean.
That loss of upwelling is tied to the original discovery of El Niño’s impacts, Kegges said, because warmer surface water near South America can disrupt fishery conditions.
He also pointed to a split pattern farther south and east, with southern Brazil and northern Uruguay leaning wetter, while drought develops in the Amazon.
The model data, Kegges said, shows that pattern clearly from late summer through winter and even into spring of 2027.
That is where El Niño becomes much more than a U.S. winter story. In South America, the same ocean warming can mean flooding in one region, drought in another, and economic stress for fishing communities that depend on a healthy marine food chain.
Africa, Asia And Australia Could See Major Shifts
Kegges also walked viewers through expected El Niño impacts across Africa, Asia and Australia.
In Africa, he said South Africa and the maize belt face a strong drought signal, with high pressure becoming dominant. Kegges called his confidence in that impact high because it is one of El Niño’s more reliable signals.
He also noted wetter conditions north of the maize belt.
Across parts of Asia, Kegges said the Philippines may face major drought as warm water and tropical thunderstorm activity shift eastward across the Pacific. He also said El Niño can weaken the Indian monsoon, leading to drier-than-normal conditions in India.
At the same time, he pointed to warmer-than-normal conditions in Japan and wetter signals near Taiwan and southeastern China.
The model, Kegges said, shows especially dry conditions developing in the Philippines and nearby areas by October, with some improvement later in the season.
Australia also tends to turn warmer and drier during El Niño, according to Kegges. He said drought and wildfire risk often increase there, though he added that the model signal did not look quite as extreme for Australia as it did for places like South America, the southern United States or the Philippines.
Europe Is Harder To Forecast
Kegges said Europe is one of the harder regions to forecast through an El Niño connection.
Even so, he showed long-range model data suggesting a warm pattern could develop across Europe late in the year and into winter. He cautioned that the connection is less direct than in other parts of the world, but said it remains something to watch.
He also raised a broader global concern: the year after the onset of El Niño is often extremely warm.
Kegges said 2027 could end up being one of the warmest, or possibly the warmest, years on record globally if the current El Niño continues to strengthen.
That point matters because El Niño is not just a regional weather pattern. A strong event can release large amounts of ocean heat into the atmosphere, affecting global temperature trends and reshaping weather patterns far from the Pacific.
A Pattern Worth Watching Closely
Kegges repeatedly framed this El Niño as significant, saying it appears capable not only of breaking records, but potentially shattering them.
He also made clear that the weather impacts will not look the same everywhere. For some regions, the concern is flooding. For others, it is drought, warmth, wildfire risk, weaker monsoon rains, fishery stress, or a low-snow winter.
The big message from his forecast is that this is not a quiet, background climate signal. If the models are close, the developing El Niño could influence weather across much of the world through the rest of the year and into 2027.
There is still uncertainty, especially with long-range forecasts, but the trend Kegges highlighted is hard to ignore: the Pacific is warming fast in the key region, and the models are growing more aggressive rather than backing down.
For now, Kegges said he will keep watching the event closely as it strengthens and as its effects begin showing up in seasonal weather patterns around the globe.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
