Meteorologist David Schlotthauer is warning that the 2026-2027 winter could become unusually active across large parts of the United States, with a strengthening El Niño potentially steering repeated storms into California, the Deep South, Southeast and eventually the East Coast while leaving the northern tier comparatively milder and drier.
In his first detailed winter outlook of the season, Schlotthauer described what he sees as a potentially “dangerous” pattern developing from the second half of December through January, February and March, when El Niño typically has its strongest influence on the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern.
He stressed that a seasonal outlook cannot predict individual storms months in advance and that none of the projected impacts are guaranteed, but said several major climate models are pointing in a similar direction: a strong Pacific jet, a wetter southern storm track, possible atmospheric rivers into California, frequent heavy rain and severe weather across parts of the South, and a potentially active nor’easter season farther east.
A Very Strong El Niño Is Driving The Forecast
Schlotthauer said the central and eastern Pacific already showed exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures in early August, with anomalies running roughly 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above average in some areas.
He described the developing El Niño as unusually strong for this early in the forecast cycle and said several seasonal models continue to strengthen it further as winter approaches.
The European seasonal model, according to Schlotthauer, was showing anomalies of roughly 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal in parts of the Pacific during the November-through-January period, with even higher values appearing in some El Niño indices.
The CFS model was similarly aggressive, while the Canadian CanSIPS model and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble also showed a strong to very strong event.
Schlotthauer said the atmosphere is already responding to the warming, with increased rising motion over the central and eastern Pacific and more sinking air over areas such as Indonesia and the Indian Ocean.
That matters because El Niño is not simply an ocean-temperature event; once the atmosphere begins responding, the changes can reshape the jet stream and alter storm tracks across much of the Northern Hemisphere.
He also pointed to the current phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO, which he said favors a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex.
In Schlotthauer’s view, that could mean fewer major disruptions of Arctic air and less persistent extreme cold spilling south, while allowing a more consistent storm pattern to become established elsewhere.
California Could Face Atmospheric Rivers And Heavy Mountain Snow
California stood out as one of Schlotthauer’s biggest areas of concern.
He said several models are showing an enhanced Aleutian low and a strengthened subtropical Pacific jet extending toward the West Coast, a setup that could repeatedly direct Pacific storms into central and even northern California.
That kind of pattern can favor atmospheric rivers, and Schlotthauer said the state could end up with a very wet winter if the projected El Niño develops as expected.
He repeatedly emphasized that flooding is possible, particularly if multiple moisture-rich storms arrive close together and soils become saturated.
The Sierra Nevada could also see very heavy snowfall, with Schlotthauer describing the potential for multiple major snow events and substantial seasonal totals at higher elevations.
He even suggested that some mountain locations could end up with several dozen feet of snow over the course of the winter if the most aggressive model scenarios verify.
That is a seasonal total rather than a single storm forecast, but it still illustrates how active he expects the high-elevation pattern to become.
His forecast for the Pacific Northwest is almost the opposite, with Washington, northern Idaho and parts of Montana leaning warmer and drier than average as the main storm track remains displaced farther south.
This is one of the clearest examples of how El Niño can divide the West: California may become much wetter while areas farther north miss out on some of the usual storm activity.
Deep South And Florida Could See Repeated Flooding Threats
Schlotthauer also highlighted the Deep South and Southeast as potentially vulnerable to repeated heavy rain, flooding and severe thunderstorms.
Florida was one of the areas he singled out most strongly.
Using his own forecast maps and the broader model guidance, he said northern and central Florida could have a high probability of above-average precipitation, with some storms capable of producing very heavy rainfall as Gulf moisture interacts with a strong subtropical jet.
He went so far as to say that he expects flooding in Florida to become a recurring weather story during the winter if the pattern develops as currently projected.
Georgia, the Carolinas, Louisiana and parts of Texas also lean wetter than average in his outlook, while the broader Southeast appears favored for a stormier winter.
Schlotthauer said that could include not only flooding but also bouts of severe weather, particularly when strong upper-level systems cross the southern states and tap warm, humid air from the Gulf.
He specifically mentioned the possibility of severe-weather outbreaks across Dixie Alley from December through March.
That does not mean every month will be stormy or that every system will become severe, but a strong subtropical jet can create repeated opportunities for organized thunderstorms when surface conditions line up.
The combination of heavy rain and severe-weather potential is what makes the southern part of his forecast more concerning than simply calling for a wet winter.
Much Of The North May Be Milder And Drier
While the southern half of the country could be stormier, Schlotthauer expects a different winter across much of the northern tier.
He said the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies are favored for above-average temperatures, while the Great Lakes and parts of the upper Midwest may end up with below-average precipitation overall.
That does not mean snow disappears.
Schlotthauer was careful to explain that a below-average precipitation season can still contain several meaningful snowstorms, but the total amount of rain and melted snow over the winter may finish below normal.
He also expects fewer truly extreme Arctic outbreaks than during winters when the polar vortex becomes repeatedly disrupted.
Chicago, Indianapolis and parts of the Midwest could still experience periodic cold shots, but Schlotthauer said he does not currently expect the most severe and persistent cold to dominate the season.
The Northeast may also run somewhat milder overall, even while remaining vulnerable to significant winter storms.
Seasonal averages can be misleading in that way: a relatively mild three-month period can still contain one or two major snowstorms that create serious disruption.
Nor’easters Could Become A Major East Coast Concern
Schlotthauer believes the East Coast could become especially active when the polar jet and subtropical jet interact.
That type of setup can help strengthen coastal storms, and he said the upcoming winter may favor a more active nor’easter season than usual.
Depending on temperatures, those systems could produce heavy rain, wet snow or major snowfall across the Appalachians, the Smoky Mountains and parts of the Northeast.
He described the potential for some storms to become “extreme,” although the exact tracks and precipitation types cannot be known this far in advance.
That uncertainty is important because small changes in the storm track can determine whether a city receives heavy rain, mixed precipitation or a major snowstorm.
Schlotthauer’s broader point is that the background pattern may be favorable for stronger systems more often than in a quieter winter.
The East Coast therefore may not be the coldest part of the country overall, but it could still see some of the most disruptive individual storms.
Schlotthauer Says The Second Half Of Winter Bears Watching
The period Schlotthauer is watching most closely begins around the second half of December and continues through March, when he expects the El Niño-driven circulation to become more established.
His overall forecast calls for stormy and very wet conditions in California, wetter-than-average conditions across much of the Deep South and Southeast, a comparatively mild Pacific Northwest, and an active storm track extending toward the eastern United States.
He also left room for periodic Arctic air intrusions into the Midwest and some southern areas, though he does not expect extreme cold to be the defining feature of the season.
The more significant danger, in his forecast, comes from repeated storms rather than one dominant cold outbreak.
That could mean atmospheric rivers and mountain blizzards in California, flooding and severe weather across the South, and powerful coastal systems farther east.
Schlotthauer repeatedly acknowledged that seasonal models can change and that El Niño does not guarantee any specific outcome, which is an important limitation when discussing a forecast issued several months before winter begins.
Still, he said the agreement among several models gives him confidence that the 2026-2027 season is unlikely to be a quiet one.
If the current signals hold, the most serious impacts may come not from record cold but from the persistence of an energized southern storm track, with the West Coast, Deep South, Southeast and parts of the East Coast all facing different versions of the same problem: too many strong storms moving through during the heart of winter.
