Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the strengthening 2026 El Niño is now running close to the strongest events on record, with additional warming still stored below the surface of the Pacific Ocean and signs that the pattern could intensify further before peaking later this fall or early winter.
Kegges, host of the JustWeather YouTube channel, said the current event is already tracking just behind the powerful 1997-98 El Niño using one climate index, while newer modeling continues to suggest that record-breaking strength remains a real possibility.
The implications could stretch well into winter 2026-27, with Kegges pointing to a wetter southern United States, a stronger subtropical jet stream, increased severe-weather potential near the Gulf Coast and Florida, warmer conditions across parts of Canada and the northern United States, and a possible increase in major East Coast winter storms if enough cold air is available.
He also cautioned that El Niño does not produce the same weather everywhere, and some of the most dramatic model signals extend far beyond North America.
More Pacific Warming May Still Be Ahead
Kegges began by looking at sea-surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific, where the main El Niño region continues to warm quickly.
Using a newer measure called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, he said the June-through-August running average for the current event stood around 1.36 degrees Celsius above normal.
That placed it just behind 1997-98, which was around 1.7 degrees above normal using the same comparison, and ahead of the 2015-16 event at roughly 1.33 degrees.
Kegges said those numbers alone show how unusual the current event has become, but he considers the water beneath the surface even more important.
Temperature data hundreds of meters below the Pacific show a large reservoir of unusually warm water that has not yet fully reached the surface.
“There is still fuel in the tank,” Kegges said.
That subsurface heat, in his view, is one of the strongest reasons to believe the El Niño will continue strengthening toward its projected late-fall or early-winter peak.
At the same time, he pointed out that cooler water is already appearing deeper below the ocean, which could eventually help weaken the event and move the Pacific toward La Niña later on.
For now, however, he said the warming phase remains dominant.
Models Keep Pointing Toward A Very Strong Event
Kegges said climate models have been showing unusually aggressive El Niño projections for months, and unlike many long-range forecasts, those signals have remained remarkably consistent.
He specifically highlighted European model guidance showing values high enough to challenge or exceed past record events depending on which index is used.
That consistency matters because long-range climate modeling can shift substantially from month to month.
In this case, Kegges said the models have effectively kept repeating the same broad idea, which he believes reflects the strength of the underlying Pacific signal.
He described a very strong El Niño as a pattern capable of “bullying” other climate influences, meaning its effect on the atmosphere can become dominant enough to overpower some smaller competing signals.
That does not mean every winter forecast becomes automatic, but it does increase confidence in some of the larger seasonal patterns.
The most important one for the United States is the subtropical jet stream.
Southern U.S. Could Turn Much Wetter And Stormier
Kegges said a strong El Niño typically strengthens the subtropical jet, allowing more Pacific moisture and storm systems to move across the southern tier of the country.
His climate-model review showed wetter conditions developing across Southern California and becoming especially pronounced across the Southeast as winter progresses.
He also highlighted the potential for an active severe-weather corridor through the Deep South, particularly around the Interstate 10 region and Florida.
That does not mean every storm will become severe, but Kegges said the pattern favors more opportunities for active weather as Pacific energy repeatedly moves through the southern United States.
The same storm track could also become important farther north and east.
Kegges said an active system moving up the Interstate 95 corridor during winter could produce a major snowstorm or nor’easter if enough cold air is in place at the same time.
That “if” is critical.
He stressed that El Niño winters often run warmer across the Northeast overall, meaning a storm alone is not enough to guarantee snow.
Still, the pattern can create the kind of large, moisture-rich storm systems that become significant when cold air happens to overlap with them.
Northern Plains And Canada May Stay Mild
While the southern tier turns wetter, Kegges said the northern United States could experience a much different winter.
His model review showed warmer-than-normal conditions across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, with particularly strong warmth extending through much of Canada.
He was blunt about the signal, calling the Canadian temperature anomalies unusually high.
That would fit the broad structure of many strong El Niño winters, when the main storm track shifts south and leaves much of the northern tier with fewer sustained cold outbreaks.
Farther south, however, Kegges said cloud cover and repeated storm systems may keep daytime temperatures lower than normal even if truly frigid air is limited.
He expects parts of the southern United States to experience cool nights along with chilly, cloudy afternoons brought on by persistent moisture and the active subtropical jet.
That is an important distinction because below-normal temperatures in the South do not necessarily mean severe Arctic cold.
In many El Niño winters, the cooler feel comes from clouds, rain and reduced daytime heating rather than repeated deep freezes.
South America, Asia And Europe Also Show Strong Signals
Kegges also expanded the forecast beyond North America and said some of the clearest El Niño impacts may show up in South America.
Climate models show a wetter pattern along western South America, including Peru, with the signal becoming stronger into the first part of 2027.
He said that raises concerns about flooding, particularly if the strong El Niño continues through the heart of the rainy season.
Meanwhile, northeastern South America could turn much drier, while southeastern portions of the continent trend wetter.
Across Asia, Kegges highlighted the Philippines as an area where drought could develop later this year and continue well into 2027.
He said conditions there have recently been wet, but the climate models show a noticeable shift toward prolonged dryness beginning around November.
Australia is less straightforward.
Kegges noted that strong El Niño events often favor hot and dry conditions there, but the current climate modeling does not show an especially severe dry signal at this stage.
That is one area he said will be worth watching for changes.
Europe, meanwhile, stands out for warmth.
Kegges said models show an unusually strong warm anomaly across the continent through much of winter, with wetter conditions also appearing in parts of the region.
He described the projected warmth as a “blowtorch,” saying unusually warm ocean temperatures may help support that pattern.
The Bigger Winter Picture Is Becoming Clearer
Kegges emphasized that these are still climate-model projections rather than a finalized winter forecast.
He plans to release his own detailed North American winter outlook in October, when shorter-range seasonal signals should be easier to evaluate.
Even so, he said the overall El Niño structure has remained stable enough that some themes are becoming harder to ignore.
A wetter southern United States, drier northern tier, warmer Canada, active storm track near the Gulf and East Coast, and potentially cooler, cloudier conditions across parts of the South are all showing up repeatedly.
What remains much harder to determine is exactly where individual winter storms will track, whether cold air will be available at the right times and which regions could turn snowfall opportunities into major events.
That is especially true for the Northeast, where Kegges said a warm seasonal average can still include one or two significant snowstorms if the timing lines up correctly.
The strongest part of his message, however, concerned the Pacific itself.
The current El Niño is already among the strongest at this point in the year, and Kegges believes the large reservoir of heat below the ocean surface gives it room to strengthen further.
For now, the question is becoming less about whether this will be a major El Niño and more about just how high it climbs before reaching its peak.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
