A rare and dangerous weather pattern is unfolding across the country, bringing an unusual severe weather threat to northern New England, a multi-day flood danger in Texas, extreme heat across the central United States, and another possible round of storms by the weekend.
Meteorologist Ryan Hall warned that Tuesday could become a highly active day, with two very different emergencies developing at the same time. New England faces a severe storm setup more typical of the Plains, while parts of central and western Texas could receive enough rain to turn roads and dry creek beds into dangerous rivers.
“We’ve got a genuinely wild week taking shape across the country,” Hall said in his latest forecast.
The threats will not end after Tuesday. Flooding may continue through Wednesday, cooler and calmer air could briefly reach the East Coast later in the week, and then heat and thunderstorms are expected to return as the broader pattern changes again.
New England Faces a Rare July Outbreak
Hall said northern New England is under a Level 3 out of 5 severe weather risk Tuesday, covering Burlington, Vermont, Plattsburgh, New York, and a large stretch of northern Maine.
The setup is unusual because storms are not expected to follow the more common southwest-to-northeast path. Instead, they may form over southern Quebec, move around the edge of a ridge, cross the Canadian border, and sweep eastward into New England.
Hall compared the pattern to a “slip and slide pointed at New England.”
Before the storms arrive, intense heat will build across the region. Burlington could approach 100 degrees, possibly tying a July 14 temperature record, while the heat index may climb above that level.
That heat will provide deep instability beneath a powerful northwesterly jet stream, creating an atmosphere capable of supporting organized and rotating thunderstorms.
The most dangerous period is expected between approximately 6 p.m. and midnight.
Storms may begin as individual supercells, which Hall described as the most concerning stage because isolated storms can rotate more freely and produce the largest hail or strongest tornadoes.
Golf ball-sized hail will be possible, along with a low but serious risk of strong tornadoes near the Canadian border.
Hall urged people living in mobile homes to identify a safer shelter before the storms arrive, particularly because much of the threat may continue after dark.
Supercells May Become a Wall of Wind
As the evening continues, Hall expects the individual storms to begin merging into a larger line.
When that happens, the main danger may shift from hail and tornadoes toward widespread destructive winds.
Gusts could reach 75 mph or higher, strong enough to snap pine trees, damage buildings, and leave thousands of customers without power.
The storms are expected to move south and southeast across northern New England, with the strongest activity remaining north of Boston and much of southern New England.
Even communities that avoid the worst storms will still deal with oppressive heat and humidity along the Interstate 95 corridor.
Hall said the setup reminded him of a major July 1995 wind event in the Adirondacks, although this version appears shifted farther northeast.
If the forecast verifies, he warned, many parts of New England could wake up Wednesday to widespread tree damage, blocked roads, and long power outages.
This is an especially difficult threat because severe storms are less common in northern New England than in the central states. The wooded terrain can also make wind damage more widespread while hiding tornadoes and approaching storm clouds.
Texas Faces a Multi-Day Flood Emergency
While New England deals with wind and hail, Texas is facing a much slower but potentially more damaging problem.
Hall said the ground around Del Rio and nearby areas is already saturated, meaning new rainfall will run off quickly instead of soaking into the soil.
A Level 3 out of 4 moderate flood risk covers portions of the Texas Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Valley, and communities extending from San Antonio west toward Del Rio and the Mexican border.
Deep tropical moisture is being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico beneath a large heat dome over the north-central United States.
Winds near the ground and higher in the atmosphere are moving in different directions, creating an environment where storms can repeatedly form and travel across the same locations.
Hall described it as a “textbook recipe” for training storms.
Unlike the rotating supercells expected in New England, Texas may see repeated clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms, each capable of producing extremely heavy rain.
Downpours could drop several inches in a short period before weakening, only for another storm to form over the same saturated ground.
Six to eight inches of rain may be common in the hardest-hit region, while isolated locations could exceed 10 inches or possibly approach one foot before the event ends.
Roads Could Become Impassable
The rocky terrain of the Hill Country can cause rainfall to move rapidly downhill and into normally dry waterways.
Hall warned that creek beds could become raging rivers within minutes, while roads that appear safe may be covered by fast-moving water after dark.
He said impassable roads could become common by Tuesday night across the moderate-risk area.
Only a relatively small amount of moving water is needed to push a vehicle from a road, particularly when drivers cannot see whether pavement has washed away beneath the surface.
“Turn around. Do not drown,” Hall warned.
The flood risk is expected to remain serious into Wednesday because the disturbance responsible for the rain may stay nearly stationary.
Hall also expressed concern that some large forecast models may underestimate the highest rainfall totals. Their data grids may be too broad to properly capture small but intense storms capable of producing extreme local downpours.
As a result, certain communities could receive much more rain than regional maps suggest.
A lower flood risk extends eastward toward the central Gulf Coast, where repeated thunderstorms could also affect coastal cities.
Heat and Fire Danger Spread Across the Country
The large heat dome helping produce both major weather threats will continue shifting east.
Triple-digit temperatures are expected across the Northern Plains, while heat and humidity push into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Chicago and Detroit could experience heat index values near 100 degrees, making afternoon outdoor work and exercise risky.
The intense heat is also contributing to fire danger across eastern Montana and central Wyoming, where winds may reach 15 to 20 mph and humidity could fall to around 10%.
Dry grass and vegetation may ignite easily under those conditions.
Farther west, Hall is watching southern Oregon and northeastern California for thunderstorms that produce lightning but little rain.
Dry lightning can start new wildfires when vegetation is already parched, even when the storms themselves appear weak.
The combination of extreme heat, low humidity, wind, and lightning creates several different hazards from the same broad weather pattern.
It is a reminder that a heat dome does more than raise temperatures. It can redirect moisture, strengthen storm systems around its edges, dry out the landscape, and increase danger across regions hundreds of miles apart.
Southwest Flooding Continues Wednesday
Moisture will also surge northward through Arizona and New Mexico by Wednesday, increasing the risk of monsoon thunderstorms.
Hall said flash flooding will be possible over steep terrain, desert washes, and old wildfire burn scars, where water may run off almost immediately.
Hikers were urged to leave exposed trails by early afternoon before storms begin developing over the mountains.
Burn scars are especially dangerous because damaged soil often cannot absorb water normally. Even a short burst of heavy rain can send mud, debris, and water rushing downhill.
The Southwest threat will be scattered rather than widespread, but individual storms may become dangerous quickly.
At the same time, the Texas flood event may continue over many of the same communities affected Tuesday, allowing rainfall totals to keep rising.
The repeated nature of the rain may become more important than any one thunderstorm.
East Coast Gets a Brief Break
Forecast models had previously suggested a significant severe weather threat for parts of the East Coast later in the week, but Hall said that risk has now dropped considerably.
A cold front is expected to move farther south than earlier forecasts showed, pulling cooler and much drier Canadian air into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Dew points in central Pennsylvania may fall from the humid 60s into the 40s and 50s, greatly reducing the energy available for severe storms.
Hall said New England could receive a beautiful break by Friday, with warm but much more comfortable conditions.
Parts of the East Coast may enjoy clear summer weather if the front moves through cleanly by Thursday night.
That quieter period will be welcome after Tuesday’s storms, but it is unlikely to last.
The boundary’s final position remains uncertain, and thunderstorms could still form closer to Washington, D.C., if it stalls nearby.
Storms Reload for the Weekend
By Saturday and Sunday, the broader pattern is expected to shift again.
The main heat dome may sink farther south, locking dangerous heat across Florida and the southern tier of the country.
At the same time, energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes could pull tropical moisture back into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Hall said the atmosphere will likely reload with enough instability for severe thunderstorms somewhere between the Upper Midwest and East Coast.
The exact timing and track remain uncertain, but he expressed confidence that severe weather will return during the weekend.
Long-range guidance also suggests the final part of July may remain highly active, with extreme heat across the West and central states, worsening drought in parts of the Dakotas, and repeated flood risks in the Southwest and East.
Some models are also hinting at possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, although Hall noted that no system had yet been formally highlighted.
The forecast remains complicated and will change as new information arrives, but the immediate message is clear.
Northern New England faces a rare severe storm outbreak Tuesday evening, Texas may endure several days of dangerous flooding, and the larger summer pattern shows little sign of settling down.
As Hall put it, the atmosphere is becoming “downright hostile” for large parts of the country, with one threat replacing another as the week moves forward.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
