Meteorologist Max Schuster is warning that a very active stretch of severe weather is setting up across the United States, with storms expected to bring damaging winds, large hail, and at least a few tornado risks across several regions during the first week of June.
In a new forecast for the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, Schuster said the atmosphere is changing quickly as June begins, and that the pattern will not be limited to one round of storms. Instead, he expects several severe weather chances to continue through the next few days, with the threat shifting from the Plains into parts of the Midwest and possibly the Ohio Valley as the week goes on.
Schuster described the setup as a “very active stretch of weather ahead,” saying severe storms are expected to develop across multiple areas as the month begins with a more energetic pattern than many parts of the country saw during the final stretch of May.
Northern Plains Face Tornado And Hail Risk
For today, Schuster said one of the main areas to watch will be the northern Plains, where a slight risk of severe weather is in place across the Dakotas, with additional marginal risks stretching through parts of the Great Plains and the Southeast.
The main concerns, according to Schuster, will be damaging winds and large to very large hail, especially near Rapid City and into parts of North Dakota. He said some storms in that zone could produce baseball-sized hail, which is large enough to damage vehicles, roofs, crops, and outdoor property.
Schuster also said an isolated tornado or two will be possible from near Rapid City back toward Bismarck. While he described the tornado threat as limited, he urged people in the risk zones to make sure they have ways to receive weather alerts.
That is an important point because early June storms across the northern Plains can escalate quickly, especially when storms first form as separate cells before merging into larger clusters or lines. The difference between a hailstorm, a wind-producing storm, and a tornadic storm can depend on small changes in how those storms interact with each other.
Schuster said he would not rule out even a strong tornado in the Dakotas if storm mergers become favorable, similar to what he said had happened recently near Sioux Falls, where storm interactions helped produce stronger tornado activity.
Damaging Winds Remain A Major Concern
Although hail and tornadoes are part of the forecast, Schuster repeatedly pointed to damaging winds as one of the broader threats across the severe weather setup.
In the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast, he said storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts up to around 65 mph today, while the southern Plains may also see thunderstorms capable of producing some stronger gusts during the afternoon and evening.
The northern Plains, however, may see a more organized severe weather risk as storms develop later in the day. Schuster said a line of thunderstorms could form across South Dakota during the late evening, bringing a greater damaging wind threat as storms cluster together and move across the region.
This kind of setup is often difficult for the public because the threat may not look dramatic early in the day, yet the atmosphere can become more unstable by late afternoon and evening. Schuster’s forecast makes clear that people should not wait until storms are already overhead to start paying attention.
By Wednesday, Schuster expects the severe threat to remain in roughly the same broad region, with another round of severe weather possible across the central and northern Plains. He said Wednesday may bring a better chance of a more significant line of thunderstorms across North Dakota, primarily producing damaging winds but also carrying the possibility of a couple of tornadoes.
Midwest Could See Storms Later In The Week
As the northern Plains system moves farther north and east, Schuster said the severe weather risk may shift toward parts of the Upper Midwest.
By Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, he said storms moving out of the northern Plains could approach areas near Minneapolis and Sioux Falls, setting up additional severe weather chances for Thursday in parts of the Midwest.
Schuster said the severe potential across the broader Midwest does not look extremely high at the moment, largely because strong high pressure over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and East Coast may create sinking air that limits storm development. Even so, he expects at least some isolated to scattered severe storms from Minneapolis into central and northern Wisconsin.
He specifically mentioned areas northwest of Wausau and near Eau Claire as places that may have at least some risk of severe weather on Thursday.
That combination of strong high pressure and nearby severe weather is interesting because it shows how uneven the pattern can be. One area may stay dry and capped under sinking air, while a nearby region just far enough from that influence may still be able to produce strong storms.
Schuster also noted that parts of the Midwest are dealing with drought and extreme heat, which adds another concern. While lower severe weather chances may sound like good news, the lack of widespread rainfall can worsen dry conditions where the heat is building.
Friday Could Bring A More Serious Midwest Setup
Schuster said Friday may be another important day to monitor, especially across the Midwest.
He pointed to the GFS model, which shows a potent low pressure system potentially affecting Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois by Friday. If that setup develops as modeled, Schuster said all hazards of severe weather could be on the table, including damaging winds and possible tornadic activity.
He stressed that this part of the forecast is still several days out, but said people in the Midwest should keep a close eye on it because the pattern appears to be getting more active rather than calming down.
By Saturday, Schuster said the same model continues to suggest that severe weather could shift into the Ohio Valley, though he again framed that as longer-range thinking rather than a locked-in forecast.
The broader message from Schuster is that the first half of June may continue producing repeated severe weather chances, especially as low pressure systems move across the Rockies and into the Plains. He said the second week of June looks very active across the Great Plains, with several shots of severe weather possible.
That matters because severe weather fatigue can set in quickly when storm chances appear several days in a row. People may pay close attention to the first threat, then begin tuning out later alerts, even though those later storms may be just as dangerous.
Rainfall, Drought And Heat Add To The Pattern
Along with the severe weather threat, Schuster said the next seven days should bring a good amount of rainfall to the Great Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, with several inches possible in some areas.
That rainfall may be welcome in places dealing with dryness, but it could also add flooding concerns if storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
In contrast, Schuster said New England, the Carolinas, Virginia, and parts of the East Coast may see limited rain, while areas west of the Rockies may receive very little to no rainfall through the weekend. He said the West Coast should expect a lot of sunshine, while the Plains prepare for more storm activity.
Temperature swings are also part of the story. Schuster said meteorological summer is beginning with heat building across the central and southern Plains, where many areas are expected to warm into the mid to upper 90s.
By early next week, he said parts of Texas could approach 100 degrees, and by Wednesday, June 10, some areas in the Oklahoma Panhandle and nearby Plains may climb even higher. Schuster cited model projections showing Guymon near 104 degrees, Garden City near 100, Amarillo near 102, and Dallas around 98.
That kind of heat can make severe weather days more volatile when moisture and storm energy are present, but it also creates its own hazard. Early June heat can be especially dangerous because many people are still adjusting to summer conditions, and overnight temperatures in the southern Plains and Gulf Coast may stay warm enough to limit relief.
No Atlantic Tropical Threat Expected This Week
Schuster also noted that Atlantic hurricane season has begun, but said there is no tropical cyclone activity expected across the Atlantic over the next seven days.
He pushed back on social media hype about a possible system forming near Florida, saying the models that suggested such a development were wrong and that the idea had come from a long-range model outlook that was unlikely to be reliable.
Schuster said his channel would continue providing “no hype” hurricane outlooks throughout the season and would alert viewers if any major tropical impacts became possible for the United States.
For now, though, the main weather concern is not the tropics. It is the active severe weather pattern across the Plains, the Upper Midwest, and potentially the Ohio Valley, where several rounds of storms may bring damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornado risks in the days ahead.
Schuster’s forecast points to a busy start to June, with storms returning in waves instead of arriving as one isolated event. For people in the risk zones, the practical message is straightforward: keep alerts turned on, watch the forecast each day, secure outdoor items before storms arrive, and take severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings seriously when they are issued.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
