A potentially dangerous severe-weather setup is taking shape across the central Plains and Missouri Valley on Tuesday, but meteorologist Ryan Hall is warning that the current risk map may not tell the full story because morning storms could dramatically reshape where the strongest storms develop later in the day.
Hall, host of the Ryan Hall, Y’all YouTube channel, said the corridor from eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas through Missouri and Iowa faces a combination of large hail, damaging winds and flooding rain, with the possibility that storms will organize into a larger complex after dark.
The most difficult part of the forecast is location. Hall said confidence remains relatively low in exactly where the strongest storms will fire, meaning people should not assume they are safe simply because they sit outside the highest risk zone on the map.
Tuesday’s Setup Is Complicated
The Storm Prediction Center has placed roughly 5.5 million people within a Level 2 of 5 slight risk for severe weather, including Omaha, Kansas City and Topeka, according to Hall.
At almost the same time, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a similar area for an elevated flash-flood threat.
“So Tuesday is going to be a hail day, a wind day, and a water day all at once,” Hall said.
The problem is that thunderstorms moving through parts of Nebraska, Iowa and northwest Missouri during the morning could either weaken the later threat or help focus it.
If morning storms leave behind extensive clouds and cooler air, Hall said instability could be reduced during the afternoon.
But those same storms may create outflow boundaries, which Hall described as small leftover cold fronts. Those boundaries can become focal points where much stronger thunderstorms develop later.
That makes the forecast unusually conditional.
Hall compared the placement and intensity of the threat to a coin flip, saying the ingredients for severe weather are clearly present even though the exact location of the worst storms remains difficult to predict.
First Storms Could Produce The Biggest Hail
A broader weather system moving through the Great Lakes and a developing surface low over the High Plains will help push a stronger cold front southeastward Tuesday.
Hall said wind shear of roughly 45 to 65 mph will be present, giving thunderstorms enough changing wind with height to become organized.
The atmosphere will also cool rapidly with altitude, another ingredient favorable for large hail.
Storms should begin developing during the late afternoon and evening, with Hall highlighting areas south of Interstate 90 from the Missouri River Valley through Iowa and into northern Missouri.
The first thunderstorms to form could be especially dangerous because they will have access to warm, unstable air before other storms begin competing for the same energy.
Hall said some of those early storms could become rotating supercells.
Quarter-size hail should be considered the lower end of the threat, he said, while stones larger than golf balls may also occur.
That kind of hail can damage vehicles, break windshields and cause problems for anyone caught outside.
Damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph will also be possible, strong enough to bring down tree limbs and knock out power.
A Small Tornado Risk Is Also Present
Hall also pointed to a 2% tornado risk extending from southern Nebraska into northern Kansas and northern Missouri.
He expects there could be several tornado warnings and some strong rotation visible on radar, although he remains less confident that many storms will actually produce tornadoes.
The limiting factor may be the lowest part of the atmosphere, which Hall said might not become fully favorable for tornado formation.
Still, it is not a threat he thinks residents should completely dismiss.
Areas around the edges of the main severe-weather zone, including Sioux Falls, Cedar Rapids, Rockford, Madison and Milwaukee, are under a lower marginal risk.
Hall said widespread severe weather is less likely there, but isolated storms could still produce enough wind to knock trees onto power lines or create localized damage.
That is why his warning about the map matters. A lower risk category does not mean no risk, particularly on a day when leftover boundaries may cause storms to develop in places models struggle to identify beforehand.
Kansas City And Des Moines Could Face Storms After Dark
By Tuesday evening, Hall expects the individual supercells to begin merging into clusters and bowing line segments.
Once that happens, the hail and tornado threats should gradually decrease while damaging winds become the dominant concern.
Kansas City could be affected during the evening, and Hall specifically noted that the Athletics and Royals are scheduled for a 6:40 p.m. game at Kauffman Stadium.
He said the earlier innings may be relatively quiet, but developing storm lines could become a concern later in the game.
Des Moines is another location Hall highlighted because the Iowa State Fair falls within the flooding-rain risk.
He urged anyone attending the fair to know where the nearest permanent building is before storms arrive, since conditions could change quickly.
The timing is particularly troublesome because Hall believes some of the strongest weather may arrive after many people have gone to bed.
Overnight severe weather is always more concerning because people are less likely to see the sky changing or notice warnings immediately.
Flooding Could Become The Bigger Problem Overnight
Hall said warm, extremely humid air feeding into the storms may allow them to survive well after sunset.
Rather than weakening quickly, the storms could continue through much of the night while producing both damaging winds and very heavy rain.
The greatest rainfall concern centers near the area where Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska meet.
Hall said localized totals of two to five inches could occur there, particularly where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same places.
He described this as “training,” where one storm follows another over the same roads, creeks and communities.
Atmospheric moisture will be unusually high, allowing some storms to drop around an inch and a half of rain within an hour.
That could place water over roads in the middle of the night before people realize flooding has started.
Northern Illinois and Wisconsin, including Chicago and Milwaukee, are in a lower flood-risk category, but Hall said he would watch those areas closely for a possible upgrade because additional heavy rain could fall there as well.
The overnight flooding threat may ultimately become more dangerous than the hail because it lasts longer and can affect a broader area.
Heavy Rain Shifts South On Wednesday
The cold front will not move very far by Wednesday, according to Hall.
Instead, it will slowly drift south, allowing another corridor of heavy rain to develop around and south of Interstate 70.
Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee could all be affected, with a slight risk of flooding already highlighted across portions of the region.
Hall said recent forecast models have repeatedly increased rainfall amounts there.
Storms could again organize into clusters while interacting with leftover atmospheric energy from Tuesday night.
The eastern Ozarks appear particularly vulnerable to repeated thunderstorms and scattered flash flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Some forecast guidance has also pushed heavier rainfall farther southeast into the Tennessee Valley, including around Nashville.
Hall said people there should pay particular attention Wednesday night into Thursday.
A few strong storms may also occur around western Kentucky, although Hall said the severe threat was not organized enough yet to justify a formal risk area.
Water, rather than wind or hail, appears to be the more widespread concern by that point.
Dangerous Southern Heat Is Not Going Away
While storms dominate the central Plains, Hall said extreme heat will remain a major story across the South.
High temperatures through midweek are expected to range from the low 100s to around 115 degrees from the Mississippi Delta into Louisiana, while humidity could push apparent temperatures above 115.
The desert Southwest will also remain extremely hot, with temperatures in the lower 110s and extreme heat warnings extending from southern Arizona into southeastern California.
Parts of the Southeast may receive some relief late in the week as a dip in the jet stream brings additional clouds and lowers temperatures into the low and middle 90s around places such as Birmingham and Memphis.
Oklahoma, Texas and other south-central states will not be as fortunate.
Hall said dry ground across parts of the Plains is adding wildfire concerns, particularly in North Texas, where grass has become increasingly dry.
The Climate Prediction Center outlook discussed by Hall shows a high risk for extreme heat across much of Oklahoma and the Red River Valley through around Aug. 24 and 25.
That means the hottest part of the heat wave there may still be ahead.
For Tuesday, however, Hall’s biggest message is about uncertainty in the storm forecast.
The risk map gives a useful starting point, but morning thunderstorms could shift the afternoon setup enough that the eventual bullseye looks different from what people see early in the day.
With large hail, 60-mph-plus winds, a small tornado threat and several inches of overnight rain all possible, Hall’s advice is essentially to watch how the atmosphere evolves rather than treating any one forecast map as the final answer.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
