Another multi-day severe-weather threat is taking shape across the central United States, with thunderstorms expected to spread from the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the weekend while parts of New England continue dealing with heavy rain from an unusual coastal low.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the YouTube channel Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, said Thursday’s setup appears relatively straightforward, with damaging winds and isolated hail across parts of the Plains, but Friday is much harder to predict and could range from a fairly quiet day to a significant severe-weather event.
By Saturday, the same system is expected to move toward the Ohio Valley, where strong wind shear could create another tornado risk if the atmosphere is able to recover from earlier storms.
Thursday Brings a Broad Plains Severe-Weather Risk
Schuster said a new storm system moving into the central and northern Plains will begin a three-day stretch of severe-weather potential on Thursday.
A broad marginal risk stretches from the Kansas City area north toward Minnesota, while parts of Nebraska and South Dakota face a higher slight risk where damaging winds could become more concentrated.
The main threat will be straight-line wind gusts reaching roughly 70 mph, along with isolated large hail.
Schuster also said he would not rule out a rogue supercell producing a tornado somewhere in Nebraska or South Dakota, although tornadoes are not expected to be the dominant hazard.
Thunderstorms could begin developing around midday near areas such as Watertown and Mitchell, with the first cells mainly producing wind and hail.
By late afternoon, however, some storms may become more isolated.
If discrete supercells can form before everything merges together, Schuster said the tornado threat would increase locally.
Otherwise, storms are expected to organize into a slower-moving line during the evening, bringing a scattered to numerous damaging-wind threat toward places such as O’Neill, Sioux Falls, Kearney, Omaha, and eventually Kansas City.
Because the line is expected to move relatively slowly, some locations may also deal with prolonged periods of heavy rain rather than a quick-moving squall line.
Heavy Rain Continues Across New England
While attention shifts toward the Plains, Schuster said the coastal low affecting the Northeast will continue producing heavy rainfall into Thursday.
The system is unusual for late July because coastal lows of this type are far more commonly associated with winter.
Schuster said portions of southern Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and nearby areas could receive several inches of rain, with some localized totals potentially approaching half a foot around places such as Hartford and Albany.
He emphasized that those numbers could create outsized impacts because parts of New England are especially vulnerable to flash flooding.
In his words, three or four inches of rain there can create problems comparable to much larger totals in places with better drainage.
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms may also remain around Cape Cod and Nantucket as the coastal system slowly moves away.
The flooding threat should therefore remain a concern even as the more dramatic severe-weather focus shifts west.
That combination makes Thursday somewhat unusual: the Northeast will still be cleaning up from one storm while the Plains begin dealing with the next.
Friday Has a High Ceiling and a Very Low Floor
Schuster described Friday as the most uncertain day of the forecast.
He said the setup could produce very little severe weather if the developing low remains weak or if widespread morning storms stabilize the atmosphere.
But another scenario could produce a much more organized system across parts of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and surrounding areas.
“The high ceiling” scenario depends on a stronger low-pressure system developing around Minnesota and Iowa and maintaining enough strength as it moves east.
The European model, according to Schuster, showed a more pronounced low with strong wind fields stretching across Missouri and Illinois.
That would create a corridor of strong instability and wind shear from parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northward toward Missouri, Iowa, and western Illinois.
If thunderstorms can form in that environment, Schuster said all severe hazards would be possible, including tornadoes and potentially a strong tornado.
The problem is that other models are much less aggressive.
One high-resolution model showed only scattered showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas, southern Missouri, and Oklahoma, with damaging winds as the main issue and little evidence of a larger organized severe-weather event.
That is why Schuster said Friday could range from almost nothing to an outbreak.
The atmosphere may have plenty of ingredients available, but if morning convection spreads too much rain and cloud cover across the region, those ingredients may never come together properly.
Midwest Flooding Could Become Another Concern
Even if Friday does not produce a major tornado event, the same system could still bring considerable rainfall.
Schuster said Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin could see periods of heavy rain, particularly if widespread storms develop early enough to suppress instability.
Chicago and much of Wisconsin may therefore face more of a rainfall problem than a severe-weather problem.
That distinction matters because a “failed” severe setup does not necessarily mean a quiet weather day.
If storms form too early for tornadoes, they can still produce flooding, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and repeated rounds of rain.
Schuster said the European model suggested a widespread one to four inches of rainfall across parts of the region through the event, with locally higher totals possible.
Other guidance showed considerably less rain, highlighting just how uncertain the storm’s evolution remains.
This is one of those forecasts where the same basic storm can produce completely different impacts depending on small changes in timing and strength.
Saturday Shifts the Threat Toward the Ohio Valley
By Saturday, Schuster expects the storm system to move toward Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia.
He said tornadoes could become the primary severe-weather concern there because the region may have strong wind shear in place.
Once again, however, earlier rainfall could interfere with the setup.
If too many storms develop before peak heating, the atmosphere could stabilize and reduce the tornado risk substantially.
Schuster said this kind of late-July and early-August severe-weather forecast is especially difficult because convection often develops in ways that computer models struggle to resolve several days ahead.
Saturday therefore depends heavily on what happens Friday.
If Friday produces a more organized low-pressure system and leaves the downstream atmosphere intact, Saturday could become more active.
If Friday’s system weakens or floods the region with widespread convection, Saturday may be considerably less severe.
By Sunday into Monday, the storm should weaken as it approaches the East Coast, although scattered rain and isolated severe thunderstorms could remain possible.
Cooler Air Arrives for Many Areas
One positive part of the forecast is a noticeable break from recent heat across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Schuster said morning temperatures will fall into the 50s and 60s in some areas, unusually comfortable for the end of July.
Afternoon heat-index values across much of the Midwest should remain in the 80s and 90s rather than reaching the dangerous levels experienced earlier in the month.
The exception will be the central and southern Plains.
Dallas and Oklahoma City could still approach feel-like temperatures near 110 degrees as a heat dome continues strengthening farther west.
Texas is expected to remain especially hot into the weekend, while more frequent clouds and rainfall keep temperatures closer to normal or even below normal across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
Schuster said comfortable conditions may continue into early next week for many of those areas.
The Biggest Question Is What Friday Becomes
Schuster’s forecast makes Thursday the most predictable part of the coming storm sequence.
Damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado are possible across the Plains, but the overall setup is relatively well defined.
Friday is where confidence drops sharply.
A stronger low could create a significant severe-weather corridor with tornado potential, while a weaker system or too much early rain could leave much of the region with little more than scattered storms.
Saturday then depends on whichever version of Friday actually develops.
For people from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley, that means the forecast may change considerably as new data arrives.
The broad message is already clear, though: another storm system is moving through, and from Thursday through the weekend it could produce damaging winds, heavy rain, flooding, hail, and at least some tornado potential across several states.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
