The Pacific Ocean is entering a much more active tropical pattern, with meteorologist Jonathan Kegges warning that several tropical cyclones could develop over the next two weeks while forecasters also begin watching for a possible uptick in Atlantic activity closer to the peak of hurricane season.
Kegges, host of the YouTube channel JustWeather, said current guidance points to at least six or seven potential systems forming across the western, central and eastern Pacific through early September, with some tracks potentially bringing renewed concerns for Hawaii and other Pacific islands.
The Atlantic remains much quieter for now, but Kegges said that quiet stretch may eventually change as August ends and September begins, even though strong El Niño conditions, high wind shear and other unfavorable factors are still working against development.
Pacific Could Become Extremely Active
Kegges said ensemble guidance is showing a remarkable cluster of potential tropical systems across the Pacific Basin, with several areas of circulation appearing one after another through the end of August and into the first days of September.
He counted at least six to seven potential storms through around Sept. 2, while noting that additional development could appear beyond that window.
Some of those systems may remain harmless over open water, but Kegges said forecasters will need to watch Hawaii and other Pacific islands closely because at least a few model tracks move westward in their general direction.
One near-term system appears more likely to remain south of Hawaii, he said, but other disturbances are expected to follow behind it.
That repeated development is consistent with the strong El Niño pattern currently in place, which Kegges said is helping focus much of the tropical activity into the Pacific rather than the Atlantic.
The sheer number of possible systems does not mean every one will become a hurricane, but it does signal that the basin could remain unusually busy for an extended stretch.
More Development Could Form Near Mexico
Kegges also showed atmospheric-moisture forecasts indicating repeated swirls of tropical moisture developing through late August.
One of those potential systems may organize southwest of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, while additional disturbances could emerge within the Intertropical Convergence Zone farther out over the Pacific.
He said the pattern becomes more consolidated toward the end of August, increasing the chance that several of these disturbances could become tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes.
The term tropical cyclone covers all of those organized systems, Kegges explained, while storms west of the International Date Line are generally referred to as typhoons.
The bigger message is that the Pacific does not appear ready to settle down anytime soon.
For residents of island communities, that means even systems that remain offshore will require close monitoring because small changes in steering currents can matter greatly several days later.
Atlantic May Finally Show Signs Of Life
While the Pacific heats up, Kegges said the Atlantic Basin remains quiet, but there are some signs that conditions could become more favorable between late August and early September.
He pointed to a Climate Prediction Center outlook that highlights a greater than 20% chance of tropical development in the Atlantic’s main development region between Aug. 22 and Sept. 1.
Kegges said this was the first time he could recall seeing that kind of highlighted area in the agency’s two- to three-week outlook during the 2026 hurricane season.
Another area is highlighted for Sept. 2 through Sept. 8, just ahead of the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season around Sept. 10.
That timing alone makes the pattern worth watching, but Kegges remains cautious.
He said some long-range models have repeatedly been too aggressive with Atlantic development, both this season and last, showing storms that never ultimately formed.
For that reason, he described his attitude toward the latest aggressive guidance as essentially, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
Several Factors Are Still Holding The Atlantic Back
Kegges said one of the biggest reasons the Atlantic has struggled to produce sustained development is below-normal atmospheric instability.
Tropical systems need thunderstorms to develop and maintain themselves, and that process works better when the atmosphere is unstable enough to support rising air.
According to Kegges, the tropical Atlantic has remained below its normal instability levels, although the gap is beginning to narrow.
He also pointed to another less obvious issue: the Atlantic may be warm, but it is not necessarily warm enough relative to other tropical ocean basins.
If surrounding basins are even warmer, he explained, rising air can become concentrated elsewhere, leaving more sinking motion over the Atlantic and making tropical development more difficult.
That is an important distinction because warm ocean water by itself does not guarantee hurricane formation.
The broader atmosphere still has to cooperate.
El Niño Wind Shear Remains A Major Obstacle
Another significant limiting factor is wind shear, especially in the Caribbean.
Kegges showed that shear there remains far above normal, something he attributed to the strong El Niño pattern.
Wind shear can tear apart developing tropical systems by separating their thunderstorm activity from the low-level center.
Kegges said any tropical wave moving west from Africa will therefore face strong resistance, even if Saharan dust and dry air become less dominant later in the season.
He believes the subtropical Atlantic closer to Bermuda may offer a somewhat more favorable zone for development because some systems could avoid the strongest shear there.
That means the next two to three weeks are not necessarily quiet, but neither are they a guarantee of a major Atlantic hurricane outbreak.
Kegges said roughly 75% to 80% of Atlantic tropical activity still typically occurs after this point in the season, so there is plenty of time left for conditions to change.
Heat And Storms Continue Across The U.S.
Kegges also turned to the lower 48, where a strengthening heat dome remains a major issue.
By Friday, the hottest air is expected to shift farther west toward New Mexico and the Four Corners region, while the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest remain brutally hot.
He said Albuquerque and surrounding areas could see increasingly intense heat as the upper-level ridge consolidates.
At the same time, changes in the larger weather pattern are expected to trigger more thunderstorms from the Front Range into Nebraska and Kansas.
Another zone of stronger storms may develop across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, with additional heavy rain focused toward the Mississippi River Valley.
That is particularly concerning because some areas have already dealt with repeated flooding.
Kegges said more heavy rain may also spread through parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina into Thursday, keeping already saturated areas at risk for additional problems.
The combination of extreme heat in one part of the country and repeated heavy rainfall in another shows how uneven the late-summer pattern remains.
Peak Hurricane Season Is Still Ahead
For now, Kegges’ strongest warning is aimed at the Pacific, where model guidance is much more confident in a burst of tropical development over the next two weeks.
The Atlantic is a different story.
There are increasing hints that the basin may finally wake up as late August turns into September, but Kegges said the hostile background pattern created by El Niño, high shear and weak instability still gives him reason to remain skeptical of the more aggressive forecasts.
That cautious approach is appropriate this far out.
Long-range tropical guidance can be useful for identifying patterns, but individual storm tracks and intensities become far less reliable the further into the future they extend.
What appears more certain is that late August will remain active somewhere: the Pacific may produce several tropical cyclones, the southern and western United States will continue dealing with extreme heat, and parts of the central and eastern country remain vulnerable to more heavy rain and thunderstorms.
As Kegges framed it, there are several important signals to watch, but the Atlantic still has to prove that it is ready to join the action.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
