A sprawling storm fueled by tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo is expected to spread across a large part of the United States this week, bringing a serious threat of flash flooding, several inches of rain and a chance of severe weather from the Southwest into the southern and central Plains.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the storm could become one of the broadest and most significant rainfall events the country has experienced in at least six months.
“Hurricane Polo is about to impact the United States in a way that many people might not expect,” Schuster warned.
The danger will not come from the hurricane striking the United States as a powerful tropical cyclone. Instead, Schuster said Polo’s moisture will be drawn inland and absorbed into a much larger weather system, combining with moisture from another former hurricane and a strong cold front.
That setup could keep unsettled weather going for days rather than hours.
Tropical Moisture Pours Into The Southwest
Schuster said Polo will weaken as it moves inland through Mexico, but that does not mean its influence will quickly disappear.
The remnants are expected to carry a large amount of Pacific moisture into Texas and New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, while moisture from former Hurricane Odallas also feeds into the Southwest.
Together, Schuster said, those two tropical systems will help fuel a much larger storm across the central and southern Plains.
By Tuesday, the threat will focus heavily on parts of New Mexico and West Texas, including areas around Albuquerque, El Paso and Amarillo.
Schuster said some places could easily receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible.
There will also be a chance of isolated severe storms Tuesday evening in the Texas Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts are possible, and Schuster said an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if enough instability develops.
The atmosphere is expected to contain plenty of wind shear, meaning winds change speed or direction with height, but Schuster said instability remains the bigger question.
That balance will determine whether the severe-weather threat remains limited or becomes more organized.
Wednesday Could Bring The Greatest Flood Threat
Wednesday may be the most important day of the storm for the central and southern Plains.
Schuster expects widespread light to moderate rain across Kansas, while heavier downpours develop farther south across Oklahoma and Texas.
A corridor of severe weather could also form, although Schuster currently considers the tornado risk relatively low.
He said forecast guidance showed low-end values on the Significant Tornado Parameter, though that could change if instability grows more than expected.
A few stronger thunderstorms or rotating supercells may develop around parts of Texas, including near Dallas-Fort Worth, while another cluster of storms could form farther west and southwest during the night.
Yet Schuster stressed that tornadoes are not the main concern.
The greater threat comes from what meteorologists call “training” thunderstorms, where several storms repeatedly move over the same location.
He explained that storms are expected to move generally from south to north, following the deep stream of moisture entering the region.
That pattern can quickly produce large rainfall totals because the same town or neighborhood may be hit by one heavy downpour after another.
“That is why we think an incredibly dangerous flooding event could occur somewhere in Texas, Oklahoma, or New Mexico,” Schuster said.
This may be the most important part of the forecast. A single intense storm can cause flooding, but repeated storms following the same path can turn an ordinary heavy-rain event into something far more dangerous before people have much time to react.
Several Inches Of Rain Could Fall
Forecast models shown by Schuster paint a concerning picture.
One model indicated a broad zone of roughly 1 to 6 inches of rainfall across the central and southern Plains through early Thursday, with especially heavy totals possible where thunderstorms repeatedly move through the same areas.
The European model also keeps rain and storms going overnight Wednesday into Thursday around Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio.
Lighter to moderate rain is expected farther north around Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit.
Schuster said Texas and Oklahoma may see little meaningful break in the rain until sometime later Friday.
That prolonged duration is especially important because soil can become saturated well before the storm finally moves away.
The European model showed widespread rainfall totals of about 3 to 8 inches from parts of Texas northward, according to Schuster.
Some isolated locations on the model run approached a foot of rain.
He cautioned that model maps often smooth rainfall across larger areas, meaning localized totals could be even higher in places where thunderstorms repeatedly train.
Schuster said some areas may ultimately receive more than 12 inches.
“Not everybody’s going to see flooding,” he stressed, but warned that locations that do could experience catastrophic conditions and even flash flood emergencies.
That distinction is worth keeping in mind. A broad forecast does not mean every community will receive extreme rain, but the pockets that end up directly under repeated thunderstorms could experience dramatically worse conditions than nearby areas.
Storm Expands East Through The Weekend
The system will not simply disappear once the heaviest southern Plains rainfall begins to ease.
Schuster said the storm should gradually push north and east on Saturday, carrying widespread showers and thunderstorms into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast.
The system could remain active through Sunday and potentially linger into early next week.
In fact, Schuster said the European model keeps the same broad storm system affecting parts of the Northeast by next Tuesday.
That would give the storm a lifespan of roughly a week, which he described as unusually long.
Chicago, Kansas City, St. Louis and Houston are among the cities that could see elevated rainfall chances as the system shifts eastward.
The greatest flood risk is still expected farther south, particularly across Texas and Oklahoma, where deeper moisture should remain trapped for a longer period.
By later next week, Schuster said rainfall may extend from the Mississippi River Valley toward southern New England, though confidence decreases that far into the forecast.
A Cold Front Brings A Temperature Change
A strong cold front will also move through the country as the storm develops.
Schuster said the temperature change will not be extreme everywhere, but cooler air should become much more noticeable across the northern Plains and Midwest by Thursday and Friday.
Low temperatures could fall into the 40s across large parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota by Friday morning.
Some isolated freezing temperatures are possible in far northern Minnesota.
By Saturday, Schuster expects a much more fall-like pattern across West Texas, the northern Plains and Midwest, with morning temperatures generally starting in the 40s and 50s before warming during the afternoon.
The front may then stall and weaken before making much more progress into the South and East.
Even so, Schuster is already watching the possibility of another strong cold front around the middle or latter part of next week, possibly stronger than this one.
One Of The Biggest Rain Events In Months
Schuster repeatedly described the incoming system as one of the most widespread rainfall events the country has seen in months.
Four straight days of elevated excessive-rainfall risk across such a large geographic area stood out to him, particularly as moisture shifts from the Southwest through Texas, Oklahoma and eventually farther north and east.
Dallas, San Antonio, Albuquerque, Amarillo, Kansas City and Oklahoma City are among the locations Schuster highlighted as areas to watch closely as the storm develops.
The exact position of the heaviest rainfall will continue to shift as forecast models adjust, particularly because relatively small differences in storm tracks can determine which communities receive repeated thunderstorms.
What already appears clear from Schuster’s forecast is the unusual scale and duration of the system.
Rather than one narrow line of storms moving through quickly, a deep supply of tropical moisture may remain involved for several days, producing different hazards in different regions before the entire system finally shifts toward the East Coast.
For areas that end up beneath the heaviest bands, Schuster warned the rainfall could become much more serious than the broad numbers on a forecast map initially suggest.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
