A volatile early-September weather pattern is taking shape across much of the United States, with rounds of severe thunderstorms expected from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, a powerful late-summer heat dome expanding northward through the Plains and Midwest, and a major hurricane in the central Pacific potentially passing close to Hawaii.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the country is entering an unusually active stretch that could bring damaging winds, large hail and at least some tornado potential through the weekend and early next week, while record-level heat becomes an even bigger concern across the central and southern United States.
At the same time, Schuster is closely watching Hurricane Lowell in the Pacific, where unusually warm waters associated with El Niño could allow the storm to remain a major hurricane as it turns north toward the Hawaiian Islands.
Stormy Saturday From The Ohio Valley To The East Coast
Schuster expects another widespread round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon from the Midwest and Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, with numerous storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and pockets of large hail.
He estimated that 15 to 20 storms could become strong or severe somewhere along a broad corridor stretching from around St. Louis toward Raleigh, with damaging winds serving as the primary concern.
Some storms could also produce hail ranging from quarter size to around half-dollar size.
The overall tornado threat should remain relatively low, according to Schuster, although he said areas around Raleigh, Virginia Beach and surrounding portions of Virginia and North Carolina could have enough ingredients for an isolated spin-up tornado within a cluster of thunderstorms.
The setup comes as the atmosphere remains unusually active for early September, and Schuster believes that pattern could continue for another week or two.
Rather than one single large outbreak dominating the forecast, the more immediate concern is a series of storm opportunities developing along the edges of the expanding heat dome. That can create a frustrating pattern in which the exact location of the strongest storms changes from day to day even while the broader threat remains in place.
Severe Threat Shifts Back Toward The Northern Plains
By Sunday, Schuster expects the East Coast severe-weather risk to ease while attention shifts toward a new storm system moving through the northern Plains.
Minnesota could see numerous thunderstorms during the day, with damaging winds and large hail possible as instability increases and stronger winds develop higher in the atmosphere.
Schuster said the Dakotas will also need to be monitored closely.
If isolated supercells can develop there, the combination of instability and wind shear could support an isolated tornado, although he believes Monday currently has the better chance for a more organized tornado threat.
The larger system should strengthen around Montana before spreading eastward, setting up a potentially more significant severe-weather day Monday across North Dakota, South Dakota and western Minnesota.
“All hazards” could be possible in that zone, Schuster said, meaning damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes would all have to be considered if the storm system evolves as currently projected.
He described Monday as the day with the best chance of producing an organized tornado threat because stronger wind shear should overlap with an unstable air mass.
Tuesday Could Bring Storms Into The Midwest
The severe-weather threat may continue moving east Tuesday as the storm system enters the Midwest.
Schuster said an organized corridor could develop somewhere from Nebraska into Wisconsin, although he stressed that confidence remains lower because the exact track and timing of the system have not yet been settled.
Small shifts in the position of the low-pressure system could make a major difference in where the strongest instability and wind shear overlap.
By the middle and latter portions of the coming week, some forecast models become much quieter east of the Rockies, but Schuster cautioned that the signal could change as the event gets closer.
His larger concern is that the broader weather pattern remains favorable for additional storm systems along the northern edge of a persistent ridge of high pressure.
That means even if one severe-weather window weakens, the underlying setup is unlikely to become completely calm.
Heat Dome Expands Across The Plains And Midwest
While severe thunderstorms draw attention farther north and east, Schuster said the more widespread story may be the heat.
A large ridge of high pressure that has already dominated the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast is expected to strengthen through the weekend and expand toward the northern Plains and Midwest.
Temperatures could rise into the 90s and even approach 100 degrees unusually far north.
Kansas City could reach around 105 degrees, while St. Louis may climb to roughly 103. Dallas, although slightly cooler by comparison, is still expected to remain near 99.
Early next week, the heat should surge north again before a cold front connected to the northern Plains storm system pushes through the Dakotas and Minnesota.
That front may provide some relief farther north, but Schuster does not expect it to make much progress into Kansas or Missouri.
Those areas could remain in the 100s, and increasing humidity would make the conditions feel even worse.
By the middle of the week, some locations in the central United States could experience apparent temperatures approaching 110 degrees.
Chicago, meanwhile, may fall back toward the upper 70s by Wednesday as cooler air reaches the Great Lakes.
The contrast could become remarkable, with pleasant conditions around parts of the Great Lakes while areas only several hundred miles farther southwest remain trapped beneath extreme heat.
Above-Normal Temperatures May Last Into Mid-September
Schuster does not see a quick end to the heat dome.
By the end of next week, he expects temperatures well into the 90s and 100s across large portions of the central and southern Plains and into the Southeast, with the ridge potentially remaining dominant through at least around Sept. 15.
He acknowledged that forecasts nine or 10 days in advance carry considerable uncertainty, particularly when projecting exact temperatures, but said the broader signal for persistent heat is unusually consistent.
The Climate Prediction Center outlook cited by Schuster also favors above-average temperatures across most areas near or east of the Rockies from Sept. 9 through Sept. 13.
The updated September outlook places particularly high odds of above-normal temperatures across Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska, with elevated chances continuing through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Southeast.
Parts of the West are the main exception.
Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada have at least some chance of running cooler than average, while most of the rest of the country remains tilted toward warmth.
For early September, the durability of the heat is perhaps more notable than any single temperature forecast. A brief surge into the 100s can happen late in summer, but a ridge that repeatedly rebuilds and holds into the middle of the month creates a much broader stress on people, agriculture and energy use.
Major Hurricane Could Pass Close To Hawaii
Farther west, Schuster is closely monitoring an unusual tropical situation in the Pacific.
Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific is expected to remain over the ocean rather than threaten California directly, although some of its moisture could eventually reach Southern California and the Desert Southwest and contribute to showers or thunderstorms.
Another hurricane, Karina, had previously intensified to Category 5 strength before weakening over cooler waters east of Hawaii.
But Schuster said Hurricane Lowell is the system causing the greatest concern.
Lowell had also reached Category 5 strength before weakening to Category 4, making it the first Category 5 hurricane in more than five years in that part of the central Pacific, according to Schuster.
The hurricane is expected to make a sharp turn north during the latter part of the weekend and could approach islands west of Hawaii early next week.
Schuster currently expects the center to remain west of the Big Island, but several hurricane models bring the storm closer to Honolulu than the primary forecast track.
Most of the more reliable guidance still keeps Lowell just west of Hawaii, although Schuster said it could remain a Category 3 hurricane and some models retain Category 4 intensity near its closest approach.
A major hurricane passing close to Hawaii would be rare because waters around the islands are often too cool to support storms of that strength.
This year is different, Schuster said, because El Niño has produced exceptionally warm Pacific waters, creating an environment capable of maintaining unusually powerful hurricanes farther into the central Pacific.
Atlantic Remains Quiet Near Its Seasonal Peak
Despite all the activity elsewhere, the Atlantic remains remarkably quiet as it approaches the climatological peak of hurricane season.
Schuster noted that there was little immediate tropical activity to discuss in the Atlantic basin, creating a sharp contrast with the powerful hurricanes roaming the Pacific.
For the United States, that means the more immediate weather threats are coming from land-based systems and Pacific tropical activity rather than an Atlantic hurricane.
The next several days will therefore feature several very different hazards at once: severe storms moving from the Ohio Valley toward the East Coast, another organized storm threat emerging across the northern Plains, potentially dangerous heat expanding across much of the central country, and a rare major hurricane passing near Hawaii.
Schuster’s forecast suggests that September is beginning with very little sign of the atmosphere settling down, and the persistent heat dome in particular could keep shaping the nation’s weather well beyond the coming week.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
