A sharply divided weather pattern could set the stage for an unusually active stretch across the United States this fall and winter, with some regions staying mild and dry while others face repeated rain, stronger storms, and eventually the possibility of snow and severe weather.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the YouTube channel Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, said a split jet stream is becoming one of the most important features to watch heading deeper into fall, while a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific could add another layer of uncertainty to the months ahead.
“A divided jet stream is about to split the United States, which will lead to a wild fall and winter season,” Schuster said at the start of his forecast.
He described a large ridge of high pressure across the northern part of the country that could delay Arctic air and hold back early-season snowfall, while the southern United States becomes much more active as tropical moisture and Pacific systems feed into the region.
A Country Split Between Warmth and Cold
According to Schuster, a large high-pressure system near Hudson Bay in Canada is helping shape the developing pattern, while a low-pressure system farther east is allowing colder air to settle across parts of the Northeast.
That setup is creating what he described as a split flow in the atmosphere, with the polar jet stream pushed farther north while the subtropical jet remains active farther south.
For the next week or two, he expects that division to remain noticeable. Warmer air may repeatedly push north into the Great Plains, while occasional bursts of cooler Canadian air reach the northern Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and portions of the Northeast.
The result may feel unusually uneven from one part of the country to another. Schuster expects the South, particularly the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, to remain hot with only limited opportunities for weaker cold fronts to reach those areas.
Farther north, temperatures could be much cooler at times, especially across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast.
This kind of setup is especially interesting because it means fall may not arrive in a clean, steady progression. Instead of a simple march toward colder weather, much of the country could bounce between very different air masses depending on where the jet stream sits from week to week.
Schuster also believes the pattern could delay some of the snowfall normally seen early in the season across the Rockies and northern Plains, with less snow than usual possible there through at least the near term.
El Niño Could Become a Major Factor
Beyond the immediate weather pattern, Schuster placed heavy emphasis on the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, saying it could have major consequences through the remainder of fall and into the 2026-2027 winter.
He said sea-surface temperatures off the coast of South America have been rising rapidly and are reaching exceptionally warm levels in parts of the eastern Pacific.
“We are extraordinarily close from this being the warmest El Niño that we’ve ever had on record,” Schuster said, adding that some areas are running about 7 degrees Celsius above average.
According to the forecast, NOAA is indicating a 90% chance that the developing climate pattern becomes a very strong El Niño during the coming winter.
Schuster said that would generally favor below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall across much of the southern United States, along with wetter conditions along the West Coast.
Meanwhile, the northern tier, including portions of the northern Plains and Midwest, could experience a milder and drier winter overall.
Those broad seasonal signals do not mean every week will follow the same script, and Schuster repeatedly noted that shorter-term weather systems will still determine what individual regions experience. Even so, a strong El Niño can shift the larger storm track enough to change where moisture, severe weather and winter storms are most likely to develop.
That is what makes the developing pattern notable: several different weather drivers appear to be lining up at the same time, rather than one single system controlling the forecast.
More Rain for the South and West
Over the next several weeks, Schuster expects above-average precipitation across much of the southern Plains, Southeast and West Coast.
The Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast could remain closer to average or slightly below average for rainfall, while temperatures in some northern areas may also run near or below normal because of repeated cooler air spilling south from Canada.
Conditions should remain considerably warmer farther south.
Schuster said the split flow effectively divides the United States not only by temperature, but by rainfall as well.
The wetter pattern could eventually be beneficial for drought-stricken areas, particularly if steady rain reaches locations that have gone for extended periods without meaningful precipitation.
He specifically pointed to Texas, where he said areas around Dallas and Fort Worth have seen very little rain for roughly two months.
Still, beneficial rain can quickly become a problem if tropical moisture becomes concentrated over the same region. Schuster cautioned that a Pacific tropical system could dramatically increase rainfall totals if its moisture eventually gets pulled northward.
Tropical Moisture May Target Texas and Nearby States
One of the most important systems to watch this week will be Invest 99 in the Pacific, which Schuster said could strengthen considerably while moving toward Mexico.
Most models, he said, show the system becoming an intense hurricane around Wednesday or Thursday, while the European model showed pressure dropping as low as 929 millibars by Friday.
The exact path remains uncertain, but a track toward Baja California could send a surge of tropical moisture northeastward through Mexico and into the southern Plains.
If that happens, heavy rain could reach Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and parts of New Mexico during the final days of September.
Schuster emphasized that the scenario is not guaranteed, but he said the system will be important to watch over roughly the next week because of the amount of moisture it could inject into the United States.
For now, he does not expect many large, widespread severe-weather outbreaks during the next seven to 10 days, largely because the split jet-stream pattern should keep many shortwave disturbances relatively weak.
That quieter severe-weather stretch may not last long, however. As stronger cold fronts begin showing up later in September and early October, the ingredients for larger storm systems could start coming together again.
Possible Nor’easter Raises East Coast Questions
The East Coast is another area Schuster is watching closely, with a possible low-pressure system developing near the Carolinas and potentially moving toward New England later in the week.
He said the setup could eventually resemble a nor’easter, though the storm track remains highly uncertain.
The European model showed wet conditions stretching from areas near Atlanta toward New York City through much of the workweek, with the possibility that the system later moves north toward New England.
If that happens, eastern New England, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, could see gusty winds and heavier rainfall.
Schuster stressed that the exact track is still far from settled, meaning the strongest impacts could remain offshore or shift significantly in the coming days.
That uncertainty is worth keeping in mind, because long-range weather maps can make a developing storm look much more certain than it really is. At this stage, the important point is not one exact forecast track, but the fact that the atmospheric pattern is capable of producing a stronger coastal system.
Bigger Storm Systems Could Return in October
Looking farther ahead, Schuster said early October becomes much harder to forecast, although several longer-range models continue to support wetter-than-average conditions across the West Coast and southern tier of the country.
Ensemble forecasts also suggest substantial rainfall could develop across sections of the Great Plains, Gulf Coast and East Coast during the next couple of weeks.
At the same time, temperatures should remain sharply divided.
Parts of the southern United States are expected to stay very warm through the early part of the week, while areas farther north could remain much cooler. Schuster pointed to Phoenix nearing the upper 90s while places such as Chicago, Detroit and New York City experience far more comfortable conditions.
Later in the week, cooler air should continue spreading across the central and northern Plains, Ohio Valley and sections of the eastern United States.
By the final days of September, however, Schuster expects temperatures to rise again across parts of the northern Plains and Midwest, with the 70s and 80s potentially returning to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
After that, the pattern becomes less certain, although he believes stronger cold fronts are increasingly likely as September ends and October begins.
Those fronts could eventually help produce larger storm systems, renewed severe-weather threats and perhaps some snow, while the strengthening El Niño continues adding Pacific and Gulf moisture into the broader pattern.
Schuster said the coming months could ultimately bring weather that feels “a little bit more dramatic than what we have been accustomed to over the last few winters.”
For now, the main theme is contrast: heat lingering in the South, cooler air taking occasional runs at the northern half of the country, tropical moisture threatening to push inland, and an increasingly powerful El Niño shaping the larger pattern in the background.
If those pieces continue developing as Schuster expects, the transition from fall into winter may be anything but quiet.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
