A sprawling “ring of fire” weather pattern is setting up across the United States, and meteorologist Max Schuster says the unusual arrangement could keep storms, flooding rain, bursts of severe weather and major temperature swings in play through the weekend and into next week.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said a large area of high pressure over the South will act like the center of the pattern, with rounds of storms repeatedly riding around its northern and western edges while colder air occasionally pushes farther south behind passing fronts.
The result is a somewhat unusual setup in which parts of the South remain locked in late-season heat while areas only a few hundred miles farther north deal with clouds, heavy rain and temperatures that feel much more like fall.
Ring Of Fire Pattern Takes Over
Schuster said the expanding high-pressure system will stretch across the southern Plains and Southeast, keeping much of that region hot while steering disturbances around its outer edge.
That storm track is what creates the “ring of fire” appearance, with repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms forming from the central Plains through the Midwest and eventually toward the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Unlike similar patterns earlier in the summer, Schuster said this one will still allow several cold fronts to sweep through the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest, which means cooler air will be able to make more progress southward between storm systems.
That difference is important because the pattern is not simply one long heat dome. Instead, it creates a sharp boundary between hot air to the south and much cooler air to the north, and that boundary is where much of the active weather will be concentrated.
Schuster said some locations in Minnesota and Wisconsin could struggle to get much beyond the 40s and 50s for daytime highs at times, while cities farther south remain in the 80s, 90s or near 100 degrees.
Heavy Rain Could Become The Bigger Story
Although isolated severe storms remain possible, Schuster said the larger concern over the next several days is the amount of rain that may repeatedly fall across the same general areas.
He highlighted a corridor extending from the central Plains into Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes, where multiple rounds of storms could produce widespread totals of 3 to 6 inches.
Some locations could end up considerably higher.
Schuster said isolated totals between 6 and 10 inches are possible in parts of southern Minnesota, central and northern Iowa, and southwestern Wisconsin if storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
That kind of rain would create a real flash-flooding concern, especially where the ground becomes saturated before later rounds arrive.
The setup is notable because the rain is not expected to come from one organized tropical system or a single major storm. Instead, it may accumulate through repeated waves that follow the same atmospheric boundary for several days.
Thursday And Friday Bring Another Severe Weather Risk
Schuster said another storm system will begin organizing across the northern Plains late in the week, with Nebraska becoming one area to watch for stronger thunderstorms.
He expects some storms there could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.
By Friday, the setup may become more favorable farther north and east as wind shear increases across Iowa and Minnesota.
Schuster said he is watching Friday closely because the atmosphere may contain enough instability and changing winds with height to produce a more organized severe-weather threat.
He stressed that there is still uncertainty over how strong the system will become, but said the ingredients could support more than just ordinary thunderstorms if they line up properly.
The tornado risk remains uncertain, although Schuster said he would not dismiss it yet because the wind profile may become more supportive than it has been during some of the weaker setups earlier in the week.
That is a useful distinction because not every severe-weather day needs to become a major outbreak to create problems. A smaller corridor of well-organized storms can still produce damaging winds, hail and localized tornadoes if the environment becomes favorable.
Weekend Storm Track Shifts Toward The Great Lakes
By Saturday, Schuster expects the broader storm system to expand toward the Midwest and Great Lakes.
He said the severe-weather risk may not be especially widespread, but areas around Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee, Chicago and Kalamazoo, could still see isolated stronger storms.
Showers and thunderstorms may also return farther south across Oklahoma, Kansas and North Texas as moisture continues wrapping around the high-pressure system.
By Sunday and into early next week, Schuster expects a broad moisture corridor to stretch from central Texas toward the Northeast, keeping several regions unsettled even as the exact placement of individual storms remains uncertain.
That evolving storm track is one of the more unusual parts of the forecast. Rather than one clean front sweeping west to east and clearing the country, the pattern keeps recycling moisture and disturbances around the edge of the high.
Heat Continues Across The South Before Relief Arrives
While the Midwest deals with repeated rain, Schuster said much of the South will remain hot and relatively dry for several more days.
Texas, Oklahoma, the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast remain on the hotter side of the pattern, with Dallas staying near 100 degrees and other areas running well above normal for mid-September.
Kansas City and St. Louis may also remain warm for a while because the first cold front is expected to stall north of those cities rather than sweep cleanly through.
Schuster said more meaningful relief should arrive closer to the weekend or early next week as another front sags farther south.
That front could finally knock temperatures down by 10 to 15 degrees in some places, especially where clouds and thunderstorms arrive first.
By Sunday and Monday, he expects cooler air to spread through much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with overnight lows falling into the 50s and even some upper 40s farther north.
For people waiting on a genuine taste of fall, that would represent one of the clearest seasonal changes so far.
Late September Could Turn Much Cooler
Schuster said the broader pattern becomes harder to predict during the final full week of September, but he believes stronger cold fronts are increasingly likely as astronomical fall approaches.
He even raised the possibility of additional snow appearing over higher elevations of the Rockies, with colder air eventually reaching some lower elevations across the far northern Plains.
Snow has already appeared in some of the higher terrain of Montana, and Schuster expects more opportunities as increasingly cold air begins building across the northern tier.
He also pointed to next Tuesday as a potentially notable day for temperatures, saying it could become one of the coolest days for nationwide high temperatures since early June if the current guidance holds.
That does not mean widespread winter weather is imminent, but it does suggest the atmosphere is beginning to make the seasonal transition from summer toward fall in a much more noticeable way.
Atlantic Tropics Remain Strangely Quiet
While continental weather becomes more active, Schuster said the Atlantic basin remains unusually quiet.
He described the tropical season as the quietest he has personally covered on his channel and tied much of that suppression to the developing strong El Niño in the Pacific.
Schuster said the Atlantic had still recorded no hurricanes to that point in the season, something he described as historically unusual for mid-September.
He expects that quiet stretch to continue for at least another week or two unless the pattern changes unexpectedly.
The contrast is striking: the United States may deal with repeated inland storms, heavy rain, flooding risks and sharp temperature swings while the tropical Atlantic remains largely dormant during what is normally one of the busiest periods of hurricane season.
A Complicated Transition Into Fall
Schuster’s forecast shows a country divided by several very different weather regimes at once, with intense heat lingering across the South, repeated rain and flooding threats across the Midwest, periodic severe-weather chances along the storm track and increasingly cool air building farther north.
That combination is what makes the developing setup so unusual.
The high-pressure system is not simply locking the country into summer conditions, because cold fronts will still be able to move around its northern side and occasionally push farther south.
At the same time, those fronts may repeatedly stall or interact with deep moisture, allowing rainfall to accumulate in the same areas instead of clearing quickly.
Schuster expects the pattern to remain active through the weekend, with Friday’s severe-weather potential in Iowa and Minnesota, heavier rain across the Midwest and Great Lakes, and a more noticeable push of cooler air all worth watching.
By early next week, the bigger shift may finally become the temperature change, as more of the northern and central United States begins to feel like fall rather than late summer.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
