Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says NOAA’s new preseason hurricane outlook points toward a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, but he also warned that the opening stretch of the season may still deserve close attention.
In the latest forecast for JustWeather, Kegges said NOAA’s official range calls for 8 to 14 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes and one to three reaching major hurricane strength. He noted that an average Atlantic season typically produces about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, which puts NOAA’s outlook clearly on the lower side.
Kegges said he had already been discussing the possibility of a below-normal season, but even he was surprised by how low the bottom end of NOAA’s forecast went.
“We’ve been talking maybe 10 to 12 just loosely as we’ve been doing these videos leading up to hurricane season,” Kegges said, adding that seeing the lower end of the range fall into the single digits was something the Atlantic basin has not seen “in quite some time.”
The headline number may sound reassuring for coastal residents, especially after years of intense hurricane coverage, but Kegges made clear that a quieter seasonal outlook does not mean people should relax their preparations. That is the right way to frame it, because seasonal forecasts describe the overall environment, not whether one town, one coastline, or one home will face a serious threat.
El Niño Could Limit The Atlantic
Kegges said one of the main factors behind the lower forecast is the likely development of a strong El Niño by the middle of hurricane season.
In his explanation, El Niño tends to increase wind shear over parts of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Caribbean. That matters because wind shear can tear apart developing tropical systems or keep them from organizing in the first place.
Kegges also pointed to sea surface temperature anomalies across the main development region, which stretches from near the Cabo Verde Islands westward toward the Lesser Antilles. He said that zone currently shows some below-normal water temperatures, which is not the kind of signal normally associated with a hyperactive or even broadly active Atlantic season.
That is an important distinction from 2023, Kegges said, when a strong El Niño was present but much of the Atlantic was still extremely warm. In that case, record or near-record warmth helped offset some of El Niño’s limiting effects, allowing the season to produce more storms than might otherwise be expected.
This year, according to Kegges, the background signal looks different. He said the Atlantic side may have more atmospheric stability and more wind shear, while the eastern and central Pacific could become far more active.
He even pointed toward Hawaii as an area to watch during the Pacific hurricane season, saying the Pacific side may “go gangbusters” as storms track westward.
A Quiet Season Still Needs Preparation
Even with the below-normal Atlantic outlook, Kegges stressed that hurricane preparedness should not depend on whether NOAA predicts a busy year or a slow one.
“With that below normal expectation, that does not mean everybody’s out of the woods,” Kegges said, adding that he is in Florida and is preparing the same way he would if a more active season were expected.
That warning may sound familiar, but it is worth repeating because it is one of the most misunderstood parts of hurricane forecasting. A season with fewer storms can still produce one damaging landfall, and for the people in that path, the seasonal total does not matter much.
Kegges said he hopes the final numbers come in near NOAA’s lower range or even below it, but he made clear that preparedness should not wait until a storm is already on the map. He encouraged viewers to have supplies ready and to think ahead, because the practical message of hurricane season remains the same every year: it only takes one storm.
That point became even more relevant in the second half of his forecast, where Kegges turned from the broad seasonal outlook to a more immediate concern near the start of June.
Tropical Moisture Could Surge North
Kegges said the Atlantic season could still get off to a quick start because long-range signals have been pointing toward a major surge of tropical moisture near the end of May and into the first week of June.
He emphasized that he was not trying to hype a specific storm or lock in a landfall this far out. Instead, he described it as pattern recognition, meaning forecasters look for large-scale atmospheric clues before trying to determine if a specific system can form.
Kegges showed a forecast of deep tropical moisture pushing north through the Yucatán region, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida Straits, Florida, and eventually parts of the southwest Atlantic. He called it the first real shot of deep tropical moisture into the North Gulf Coast and Southeast United States.
“Buried in that could be a tropical system,” Kegges said, while also reminding viewers that any possible development would still be 10 to 14 days away.
That is a cautious but useful way to discuss early tropical possibilities. At that distance, the exact track, strength, and timing are all highly uncertain, but the pattern can still tell forecasters whether the environment is becoming more supportive.
Kegges also mentioned the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, saying it may move into a favorable phase for rising motion and thunderstorm development. In plain terms, that means the broader atmosphere could become more supportive of tropical thunderstorms, which are the building blocks of any system that tries to organize.
What The Models Are Showing
Kegges said he does not rely on one individual model run this far out, because single long-range runs can swing dramatically and create unnecessary hype.
Instead, he looked at ensembles, which show many different versions of a forecast and help identify whether there is a real signal or just one odd model solution.
He said the Google DeepMind ensemble, which he described as one of the best-performing models over the past year, showed only a few members suggesting weak tropical development. Out of 50 members, Kegges said only three showed some kind of weak system, which is far from a strong forecast signal but enough to keep monitoring.
The GFS ensemble showed more members hinting at something forming near the western Caribbean, the Yucatán, or western Cuba before lifting toward the eastern Gulf or North Gulf Coast. The European ensemble also showed a few members with possible development, including some near the Southeast coast, the western Gulf, and the broader Caribbean region.
Kegges said the key point is not that a storm is guaranteed, but that the ingredients are at least showing up in the same general area. He pointed to low wind shear, high atmospheric moisture, and warm water temperatures in the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf, where sea surface temperatures were already in the 80- to 85-degree range.
“All of the ingredients to get that tropical mess into something organized is certainly there,” Kegges said.
Florida And The Southeast Could Use The Rain
Kegges also added an important note about the possible upside of a weak tropical system, especially for Florida and parts of the Southeast.
He said he never roots for storms, but a low-end tropical system could provide meaningful drought relief if it stayed weak and mostly brought rain. Kegges said parts of Florida and the Southeast are dealing with severe drought, including some areas facing their worst conditions in more than 25 years.
That is where the forecast becomes more complicated. A weak tropical disturbance can be beneficial if it spreads rain over dry areas without causing damaging winds, flooding, storm surge, or tornadoes. But tropical systems are never something to casually welcome, because the same moisture that helps drought can create flooding if it falls too quickly.
Kegges’ broader message was measured: the seasonal outlook is lower than normal, El Niño may suppress much of the Atlantic, and the Caribbean may be quieter overall, but the opening of hurricane season could still feature a burst of tropical moisture worth watching.
For people in Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean, and the Southeast, the practical takeaway is not panic, but preparation. Kegges said the long-range forecast should not change the basic plan, because hurricane supplies, family plans, and awareness matter even in a season that looks quiet on paper.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
