Meteorologist Ryan Hall says the country is entering one of those deceptive weather stretches where a few calm, pleasant days can make the pattern feel harmless, even as the atmosphere begins setting up for stronger storms and a major push of heat heading into the weekend and next week.
In his latest forecast on the meteorology YouTube channel Ryan Hall, Y’all, Hall said the immediate pattern has quieted down after a damaging severe weather outbreak earlier this month, but he warned that quiet weather does not mean everyone is out of danger. Fire weather is already becoming a concern in parts of the northern Plains, a severe storm signal is growing for the southern Plains by Saturday, and a heat dome may soon send some of the warmest temperatures of the year across a wide part of the country.
For an article publishing Tuesday, May 12, the message is clear: enjoy the brief break where it exists, because Hall says the setup is already changing.
A Quiet Stretch, But Not A Safe One For Everyone
Hall said the severe storm threat has eased for now across much of the country, but he cautioned that the calm does not apply evenly, especially in eastern Montana and western North Dakota, where wind and dryness are becoming the main concern.
According to Hall, a fire weather watch was in effect for areas such as Dickinson and Williston, with people along or north of the I-94 and Highway 12 corridors sitting in the more concerning zone. He said a cold front pushing through the region is expected to bring winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, while relative humidity drops to around 15%.
That combination would be dangerous enough on its own, but Hall said the grass in the region is “the driest it’s been in a very, very long time,” with fuel dryness near the 97th percentile. In plain language, he said, the ground is primed to ignite.
What makes the setup more concerning, according to Hall, is the possibility of isolated high-based thunderstorms developing over the same region. Those storms may sound helpful at first, because storms usually mean rain, but Hall said these would likely not produce enough moisture to matter.
Instead, they could throw dry lightning into a landscape already ready to burn, while gusty winds make any fire harder to control.
Hall warned that outdoor burning is out of the question in those areas and said even something as careless as tossing a cigarette from a vehicle could create serious danger. His tone was partly conversational, but the warning behind it was not casual: for parts of the Dakotas and eastern Montana, this week’s weather threat is not tornadoes, but fire.
Thursday Could Be One Of The Best Spring Days In Parts Of The Midwest
Even with those fire concerns farther north and west, Hall said parts of the Midwest and central United States could enjoy a short window of unusually pleasant spring weather before the pattern turns more active again.
He pointed to areas near St. Louis, Des Moines, Springfield, Missouri, and Cedar Rapids as places where Thursday may be one of the best spring days of the year. Hall described the best window as roughly 6 a.m. through midafternoon, with a broad area of high pressure helping push away most of the cloud cover for much of the day.
Temperatures, according to Hall, should feel comfortable rather than harsh. Morning lows may dip into the 40s, giving the start of the day a crisp feel, while afternoon highs could climb into the mid-70s or near 80 degrees.
He said dew points in the 50s and low 60s should keep the air from feeling too muggy, and the chance of rain looks close to zero in the areas he highlighted. Some clouds may increase later in the day, but Hall said that could actually help keep the heat in check and make the afternoon more comfortable.
This is the kind of weather that often feels like a pause button in May: mild, dry, sunny enough to enjoy, and not yet heavy with the humidity that usually comes later. Hall’s warning, though, was to enjoy it while it lasts, because the same region that gets a near-perfect day can quickly shift back toward wind, moisture, clouds, and storms.
He also noted one smaller caution for anyone spending hours outside: clear skies could push the UV index near 8, so sun protection will matter even if the air itself feels pleasant.
Severe Storm Chances Rise By Saturday
After that short stretch of good weather, Hall said the atmosphere is expected to wake back up “with a vengeance” by Saturday, especially across parts of Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
He highlighted Oklahoma City, Lawton, and Wichita as areas to watch, saying the signal for severe weather is getting stronger. The Storm Prediction Center, according to Hall, had already placed a 15% risk area from central Oklahoma into southern Kansas, covering millions of people.
The main time frame Hall discussed was roughly 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday, a window that lines up with peak heating and maximum instability.
The larger pattern, he explained, involves the upper atmosphere flipping into a strong southwest flow late this week, which is a classic way to pump moisture and energy into the southern Plains. If a wave of energy ejects out of the Rockies and runs into that moisture-rich air, Hall said it can create a broad corridor of instability and trigger scattered, intense thunderstorms.
At this stage, Hall said the most likely threats appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. He described the hail threat as the kind that could damage siding and rooftops, while wind gusts could bring down tree limbs and cause power outages.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, he said, though he stressed that the event is still several days away and that the exact threats and placement may shift.
That note is important, because longer-range severe weather forecasts are not fixed maps. They are early signals, and Hall made clear that the details will likely move around as new data comes in. Still, he said he is more confident in the threat than he was previously because models have been coming into better agreement.
Dallas-Fort Worth Is Not Clear Yet
Hall also addressed the Dallas-Fort Worth area, saying the highest risk currently appears to be north of the metroplex, but he urged people there to keep a backup plan in case the threat shifts south.
That is a practical warning for a region that often sits close to changing severe weather setups. A small shift in the storm corridor can make a big difference, especially when the pattern involves moisture surging north and energy moving out of the Rockies.
Hall said the risk area could expand, which means people along the I-35 corridor should pay attention through the weekend. He specifically warned drivers that storms could produce walls of rain and sudden low-visibility conditions, making travel difficult or dangerous if they run into the strongest cores at the wrong time.
This is one of those forecasts where preparation does not need to be dramatic. It simply means checking updates, knowing where to go if warnings are issued, avoiding travel through the worst storms when possible, and not assuming that an early risk map is the final word.
Hall’s usual signoff, “Don’t be scared. Be prepared,” fits this setup well because the threat is not certain for every city, but the ingredients are strong enough that people in the region should stay weather-aware.
Heat Dome Could Push The Pattern Toward Summer
Beyond Saturday’s storm threat, Hall said the pattern does not simply return to quiet. Instead, a major heat dome that has been baking the Southwest is expected to shift east and flip the weather pattern across much of the country.
He warned that anyone heading to EDC in Las Vegas this weekend will be in the core of dangerous heat, making hydration a serious concern. After that, the heat is expected to spread eastward into western Oklahoma and Texas, where temperatures may reach the upper 90s or possibly 100 degrees by the weekend into early next week.
As next week continues, Hall said the ridge may park itself from the Mississippi Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic, potentially sending temperatures into the 90s across Kentucky, Virginia, and even the Carolinas.
If the forecast verifies, he said, those could be some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far.
Hall also noted that overnight lows may not cool off very much, which can make heat more stressful because homes, roads, and cities do not get as much time to release warmth after sunset. He urged people to get their air conditioners ready, saying this is the time to repair them, test them, and make sure they can handle several warm nights in a row.
That advice may sound early for mid-May, but it is sensible. The first true heat wave of the season often catches people off guard because they have not yet adjusted physically or practically, and equipment that sat unused for months may not work when it is suddenly needed.
A Pattern That Feels Like A Flip
Hall said this may not become a historic heat wave, but he emphasized that it will feel much warmer than what many people have been used to so far this spring. In his words, the country may skip past the rest of spring and dive “head first” into the oppressive heat of summer.
That is what makes this forecast feel different: the next few days offer a brief pocket of comfortable weather for some areas, but the broader pattern is starting to tilt toward bigger extremes. Fire danger in the northern Plains, severe storms in the southern Plains, and summerlike heat expanding eastward are all different symptoms of the same active transition.
Hall also began his forecast by reminding viewers about the damage from the May 6 storm outbreak in Mississippi, where the National Weather Service had confirmed multiple tornadoes, including two rated EF3. He said some rural communities suffered serious damage, and he encouraged donations to the Y’all Squad nonprofit to help families affected by the storms.
That look back gave his new forecast added context. The weather may be quiet in many places right now, but recent events show how quickly May can turn destructive when the atmosphere lines up the wrong way.
For the rest of this week, Hall’s advice is not to waste the nice weather where it appears, but also not to be fooled by it. The calm stretch is real, yet so is the pattern change behind it, and by the weekend into next week, storms and heat could make the weather feel much more intense across a large part of the country.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
