Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the next El Niño could have far-reaching impacts across the globe, reshaping rainfall, drought, heat, and storm patterns from North America to Australia as warmer waters build in the central and eastern Pacific.
In a new update for the meteorology YouTube channel JustWeather, Kegges said viewers had asked for a broader look at how this developing El Niño could affect different parts of the world, not just the United States. He also addressed one of the biggest questions people had after his earlier coverage: where all the ocean warmth that fuels El Niño actually comes from.
Kegges framed the event as something with its strongest influence during the colder months, especially winter, when the ocean-atmosphere pattern can start changing jet streams, storm tracks, and rainfall zones in a major way.
North America Could See A Split Winter Pattern
For North America, Kegges said the classic El Niño setup usually features a stronger subtropical jet stream, which acts like a moisture highway across the southern United States.
That active jet can pull extra Pacific moisture into California, the Southwest, the Deep South, and the Southeast, creating what Kegges described as a more active winter pattern in those areas.
According to Kegges, one of the higher-confidence signals is above-normal rainfall in the Southeast, with moisture also showing up in parts of the West and the southern Plains in long-range climate modeling.
At the same time, he said the Pacific Northwest, the northern interior United States, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Midwest often lean warmer and drier than normal during El Niño winters. That contrast is one of the more interesting parts of the pattern, because the same Pacific event can mean very different outcomes depending on where someone lives.
Kegges also showed the CFSv2 climate model beginning in November, though he cautioned that long-range models should be taken “with a grain of salt.” Still, he said many of the signals matched typical El Niño teleconnections, including wetter conditions in the Southeast and warmth building across the northern tier.
For Alaska and western Canada, Kegges said El Niño does not always mean less snow, but it does raise the odds of warmer-than-normal winter conditions and, in many places, drier conditions.
He pointed to strong warmth across the Arctic, Canada, Alaska, and parts of the northern United States in the model outlook, calling the Arctic warmth one of the warning signs he will be watching closely.
Hawaii Faces A Strong Drought Signal
Kegges said Hawaii has one of the clearest and highest-confidence El Niño signals: the potential for drought and heat.
He explained that a strengthening subtropical high-pressure cell can help shut off rainfall after the early stages of the pattern, with long-range modeling showing a shift from wetter conditions in October to a much drier setup by November and through the winter months.
By January and February 2027, Kegges said the model keeps showing a dry signal over Hawaii while extra moisture gathers along the equatorial Pacific, where warmer water encourages more thunderstorm activity.
That matters because Hawaii’s weather can swing hard when its normal rain pattern weakens. A dry winter there is not just a seasonal inconvenience; it can affect water supply, agriculture, wildfire risk, and the overall feel of island life.
South America May See Flooding And Drought At The Same Time
Kegges said South America is especially sensitive to El Niño because the warmer Pacific waters sit close to the continent’s western coast, particularly near Peru and Ecuador.
He said flooding is often expected in Peru, Ecuador, northern Chile, and parts of western South America, where the warm water can help drive heavier rainfall.
At the same time, Kegges said parts of southeastern South America, including Brazil and Uruguay, may also see heavy rain and flooding potential.
But the Amazon is a different story. According to Kegges, rainfall can “shut off” in the Amazon and surrounding areas, allowing drought to develop and expand through the winter months.
That split is one of the most striking parts of El Niño’s global reach. In one part of the same continent, people may be watching rivers rise too fast, while another region is dealing with deepening drought and heat.
Kegges said the long-range model was lining up closely with the expected teleconnection pattern, showing much wetter-than-normal conditions in western South America and southeastern South America while dryness spreads through the Amazon region.
Africa And Asia Could Feel Major Rainfall Shifts
In Africa, Kegges said two areas stand out during El Niño events.
Southern Africa, including South Africa, often trends drier than normal, with heat and drought developing in the maize belt. Just north of that area, however, rainfall may increase, creating what Kegges described as a strange but recognizable setup.
He said the model showed that pattern clearly, with southern Africa drying out after a wetter transition period and wetter-than-normal conditions appearing just north of the maize belt by later winter.
For Asia, Kegges said El Niño has “big ramifications” for the Indian monsoon, though he stressed that it does not simply shut the monsoon off completely. Instead, it can limit rainfall, making the season less wet than normal.
He also said India and surrounding areas could turn very hot where rainfall weakens.
Kegges pointed to Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines as areas where rainfall may shut down more strongly. For the Philippines, he called a dry November-through-February winter one of the biggest El Niño teleconnections, warning that a major drought could develop.
Japan, meanwhile, may trend warmer with fewer cold snaps, while eastern China could be one of the wetter spots in the region.
Kegges also touched on typhoon season, noting that because more ocean warmth shifts farther east during El Niño, tropical systems can develop farther east as well. That can sometimes give storms a greater tendency to curve closer to Japan or out to sea, though he made clear the Philippines can still be hit by strong storms.
Australia And Europe Show Different Levels Of Confidence
Kegges said Australia has been discussed often in his recent El Niño coverage because drought and very warm conditions are typical concerns there.
The model outlook he showed had above-normal temperatures spreading across Australia in December, January, and February, with drought taking shape as the pattern matures.
Europe, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Italy, and western Asia were less clear-cut in his report. Kegges said Europe has one of the lowest signals when it comes to typical El Niño impacts, meaning the pattern can go either way.
Even so, he said the climate models were showing a great deal of warmth relative to normal during the winter months of December, January, and February.
That uncertainty is worth paying attention to because it shows how El Niño is not a simple weather switch. Some regions have strong, repeated historical signals, while others sit farther from the main ocean-atmosphere engine and can be shaped by other competing patterns.
Kegges Explains Where El Niño Warmth Comes From
Near the end of the JustWeather report, Kegges answered the question he said many viewers had been asking: where does the warm water that creates El Niño come from?
He said it is not caused by underwater volcanoes or fault lines. Instead, it comes down to the sun, the ocean, and the wind.
In a normal year, trade winds blow from the Americas toward the western Pacific, pushing warm surface water westward and allowing that warmth to build up near the western Pacific. Kegges said that process can even raise sea level in the western Pacific.
During an El Niño year, those trade winds weaken. When that happens, the warm water that had been piled up in the west can slosh back east into the central and eastern Pacific.
Kegges said the Niño 3.4 region is the key area scientists watch, and when sea surface temperatures there reach at least half a degree Celsius above normal, El Niño has officially arrived.
That eastward shift in ocean warmth, he said, changes the thunderstorm pattern and then changes how weather responds worldwide.
It is a simple explanation for something that can produce very complicated results. A shift in warm water across the Pacific may sound distant and abstract, but as Kegges laid out, it can help decide who gets drought, who gets flooding, who gets a warmer winter, and who sees storms take a different path.
For now, the message from Kegges and JustWeather is that this developing El Niño is worth watching closely, especially as the colder months approach and its global fingerprints become easier to see.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
