A major shift in the weather pattern is beginning to take shape across the United States, and meteorologist Max Schuster says the next stretch of May could bring a mix of severe storms, unusual temperature swings and a setup that does not look like the typical spring pattern many forecasters expect this time of year.
In his latest forecast for Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, Schuster said the country is moving into one of the stranger May patterns he has seen in some time, with storm systems being steered around a large upper-level trough instead of following the more familiar route out of the Rockies and into the Plains.
The result, according to Schuster, is a forecast that may not produce one clean, obvious severe weather outbreak, but could still deliver several smaller, tricky events capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes over the next week.
A Deadly Reminder From Mississippi
Before looking ahead, Schuster paused to discuss the violent storms that struck Mississippi earlier this week, saying the event included four tornado emergencies, the most in a single day since 2023.
According to Schuster, at least two intense to violent tornadoes likely occurred in southwestern Mississippi near Monticello and Brookhaven, with early indications suggesting EF3 or stronger intensity may have been possible.
He said those tornadoes appeared to come from the same long-lived supercell, which maintained rotation for a long period and produced devastating damage over parts of Mississippi.
Schuster described seeing reports of heavily damaged mobile homes and RVs, with some structures badly damaged or swept away. He said there were reports of fatalities and critical injuries, while adding that some details were still developing at the time of his forecast.
For meteorologists, he said, these are the worst events to cover because the destruction unfolds in real time, often while viewers are still trying to reach loved ones or get to shelter.
His comments served as a sober reminder that even when the overall pattern looks “strange” or uneven, individual storms can still become deadly when the right ingredients overlap.
Why The Pattern Looks So Unusual
Schuster said the larger weather story begins with a trough sitting over the Great Lakes, a setup he described as unusual for early May.
That trough has already helped pull cold air into parts of the country, contributing to rare May snow in Colorado, while also supporting the southwesterly flow that helped fuel severe storms in Dixie Alley.
Normally, Schuster explained, severe weather during this part of spring is often tied to stronger low-pressure systems coming over the Rockies before moving into the Great Plains, Midwest or Southeast.
This time, however, the setup is being shaped by a different kind of jet stream pattern, with northwest flow expected to dominate parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley for an extended period.
That matters because northwest-flow patterns can produce scattered, smaller-scale severe weather events that are harder to pin down several days in advance. Instead of one obvious storm system driving a broad outbreak, Schuster said forecasters may be watching smaller boundaries, disturbances and pockets of instability that determine where storms flare up.
That kind of setup can be frustrating for the public because the forecast may look low-end on a national map, but still produce localized trouble in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Severe Weather Returns To The Plains
Looking ahead from Friday, Schuster said the severe weather focus shifts back toward the central and southern Plains, including areas around Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Springfield, Missouri.
He said the main threats Friday appear to be damaging winds and large hail, with a lower-end tornado risk that may still need to be watched, especially in parts of eastern Oklahoma if storms can briefly organize.
By Friday afternoon and evening, Schuster expects storms to develop from around St. Louis back toward Oklahoma City. While the environment does not look especially favorable for a larger tornado event, he said a quick tornado cannot be ruled out if a storm can rotate in the right location.
The overall risk, however, appears more focused on hail and wind than a widespread tornado threat.
On Saturday, Schuster said the severe weather risk may linger across Oklahoma and Kansas, but he was not convinced that the environment would support anything especially organized. Instability may be limited, and without enough storm fuel, even a decent disturbance can struggle to produce more than isolated severe storms.
Still, he urged people in those areas to remain weather aware, because the pattern is messy enough that small changes could matter.
A Break, Then Another Watch Period
Sunday may be quieter, Schuster said, even though some models show a low-pressure system trying to form near parts of Dixie Alley.
At this point, he does not think the environment will be organized enough for a significant severe weather day, and he described Sunday as likely being more relaxed compared with the active days before it.
The forecast becomes more interesting again early next week.
Schuster said Monday and Tuesday could bring another storm system developing over Colorado and New Mexico, with isolated severe storms possible from South Dakota down into the Texas Panhandle by Monday.
Tuesday is the day he is watching more closely, especially for Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas.
He stressed that confidence remains low and the odds of a high-end event are not especially strong right now, but he said that if the trough timing is right and a surface low can strengthen enough, the setup could become a more meaningful severe weather day.
That kind of cautious wording is important. Schuster is not calling for a major outbreak, but he is pointing to a window where the atmosphere may have enough ingredients to produce stronger storms if the pieces line up.
A Strange May Setup For The Midwest And Ohio Valley
Beyond the Plains, Schuster said the Midwest and Ohio Valley could also become involved in the pattern as the week goes on, though predictability drops sharply after the middle of the week.
He said a storm system passing through Canada could bring showers and thunderstorms into the Midwest and central Plains around Wednesday and Thursday, while the European model has shown a larger storm system that could support more severe weather by Thursday from the Midwest back toward the central Plains.
For now, Schuster described that portion of the forecast as uncertain, but he said the broader signal suggests that several small-scale storm events may be possible before a larger severe weather pattern tries to return later in May.
Around May 18 through May 23, Schuster said models are hinting at the return of a broader severe weather pattern that could cover parts of the Great Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley.
That is still far enough out that details are highly uncertain, but the signal is notable because mid-to-late May is typically a period when severe weather can become more active across those regions.
A Big Temperature Flip Is Part Of The Story
The severe weather risk is only one part of the larger shift.
Schuster said the same unusual pattern will also drive a major temperature contrast across the country, with cold air repeatedly being reinforced into the Midwest and Ohio Valley while ridging may try to build over the Great Plains later in the period.
That could create a sharp temperature swing for some areas, especially where cool, wet weather gives way to warmer conditions under a ridge.
In May, those swings can be especially jarring because many people are already shifting into a late-spring mindset. A week can bring severe storms, chilly rain, lingering mountain snow and then a warmer ridge building back in, all while the calendar says summer is getting closer.
Schuster’s broader message was that the pattern is not behaving in a simple way, and that may make the forecast feel less straightforward than usual for this point in the season.
Why Smaller Storm Setups Are Important
Schuster said the next week or two may rely heavily on mesoscale features, meaning smaller weather boundaries and disturbances that can determine where storms become severe.
That is one reason a forecast can change quickly.
A stalled boundary, an outflow from earlier storms, a pocket of heating, or a slight change in low-pressure timing can all alter the severe risk. In those setups, the difference between a quiet afternoon and a damaging storm cluster may not become clear until the same day.
This is also why people should not treat a low-end outlook as a reason to ignore the forecast. A broad outbreak may not be likely, but scattered damaging storms can still knock out power, drop large hail or produce a brief tornado.
Schuster repeatedly emphasized staying weather aware, especially in areas that may see storms Friday, Saturday and again early next week.
The Forecast Could Change Quickly
Schuster said he expects the forecast to evolve over the next few days, especially because this is such an unusual May pattern.
He said the current setup features a large upper-level trough steering storm systems around it, which is not the typical severe weather look for this time of year. At the same time, ridging may try to build into the Great Plains, which could suppress severe weather in some places while shifting the risk elsewhere.
That combination leaves the country in a weather pattern that is active, odd and somewhat unpredictable.
For now, the most immediate concerns are the renewed severe weather chances in the central and southern Plains, followed by a possible early-week watch period for Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas.
After that, attention may turn to the Midwest, Ohio Valley and eventually a broader severe weather signal later in May.
Schuster’s forecast was not built around hype so much as caution. The atmosphere is shifting, and while every day will not be dangerous everywhere, the pattern is unusual enough that people across several regions may need to keep checking the forecast as the next wave of May storms develops.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
