Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the 2026 hurricane season may not look like the kind of season many coastal residents have gotten used to in recent years, especially on the Atlantic side.
In a recent update for the meteorology YouTube channel JustWeather, Kegges said the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, is likely to be shaped by a developing El Niño pattern that should become a major force by the middle of summer and remain important by the peak of the season.
That matters because El Niño often changes where tropical storms form, how strong they can become, and which coastlines face the greatest risk.
“In terms of impacts, it should be a quieter year in the Atlantic,” Kegges said, explaining that a strong El Niño should help quiet the basin “relatively speaking.”
The key phrase there is “relatively speaking.” A quieter season does not mean a safe season, and Kegges made that point more than once. Even in years when the overall numbers are lower, one storm in the wrong place can still change everything for a town, a coastline, or an entire state.
Kegges said the Caribbean is usually the quietest part of the Atlantic basin during an El Niño year because wind shear tends to rip through the region. That shear can cut storms apart before they have a chance to organize, which is good news for places that often sit in the path of long-track hurricanes.
Still, he said the season will not be risk-free.
Atlantic Risk May Be Lower, But Not Gone
Kegges pointed to several Atlantic areas that he believes could still face a moderate chance of impacts in 2026.
One area is the Yucatan and western Caribbean, where “homegrown storms” can develop from the Central American gyre. These storms do not need to travel across the entire Atlantic to become a problem; they can form closer to land, sometimes giving people less time to watch them build.
He also highlighted the north and eastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Gulf Coast, as a region to watch early in the season.
Kegges said some strong El Niño hurricane seasons have started fast, with early impacts along the northern or eastern Gulf Coast before conditions later turn quieter. That is one reason he placed that region in a moderate-impact zone rather than writing it off completely.
The Carolina coastline is another area Kegges placed in the moderate-risk category. He said he expects the most active Atlantic storm track to be north of the Bahamas, with storms curving up and out rather than pushing deep through the Caribbean.
That kind of track can still bring trouble to the Carolinas, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and possibly areas farther north.
Kegges also gave the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes a lower chance of impacts, but he stressed that “low does not mean none.” It is a simple warning, but it may be the most important one in the whole forecast.
Coastal residents sometimes hear “low risk” and mentally check out. Kegges is right to push against that, because hurricanes do not care where a forecast map draws the lowest color zone.
The Caribbean May Stay Quieter
The most noticeable part of Kegges’ Atlantic outlook is how quiet he expects the Caribbean to be compared with other years.
He said the wind shear in El Niño years can be “brutal” for storms moving through that region, making it much harder for hurricanes to grow and thrive. In his view, the Caribbean should be “pretty quiet” overall.
That does not mean nothing can form there, and he was careful not to speak in absolutes. He said strong hurricanes have happened in El Niño years before, so the pattern limits development but does not make it impossible.
This is where the forecast becomes interesting. A lot of people think of hurricane season as one giant basin-wide threat, but Kegges is describing something more uneven: less support for storms in one major region, while other areas still carry enough risk to matter.
He also said the 2026 setup should be very different from 2023 because the Atlantic is not as warm this time, especially in the main development region. That difference is important because unusually warm water can help storms overcome hostile conditions, while cooler relative water makes it harder for them to fight through wind shear and stability.
Kegges said he does not expect the Atlantic to be as active as normal. He even suggested the number of storms may be lower than 12, and “certainly” lower than 14, which he described as average.
But his forecast is not built around storm counts. It is built around where impacts may happen, which is often more useful for ordinary people. A season with fewer storms can still feel very active if one of those storms comes close to home.
The Pacific Looks Far More Active
While the Atlantic may be quieter, Kegges said the eastern and central Pacific could tell a very different story.
According to Kegges, western Mexico should be watched closely because the eastern Pacific is expected to be much more active under El Niño. He said the area off the Baja California Peninsula already has “a ton of warm water,” and El Niño should help keep very warm water extending across the basin.
That warm water, combined with weaker trade winds, less wind shear, and more rising motion, can create a much better environment for tropical development.
“The warmer water in the Pacific typically leads to stronger storms, more storms,” Kegges said.
He said western Mexico could face direct impacts from eastern Pacific systems, while Hawaii may be one of the most important places to watch during the 2026 season.
In fact, Kegges said Hawaii is the only area across the central Pacific, eastern Pacific, or Atlantic where he placed a high opportunity for impacts this year.
That stands out. Hawaii is often protected by cooler waters or storm tracks that bend systems away or weaken them before arrival, but Kegges said the water pattern may be different enough this year to raise concern.
He explained that warmth pushing back in from the western Pacific, tied to the developing El Niño, may allow more storms to move in Hawaii’s direction. That does not guarantee landfalls, but it raises the odds of close calls and possible impacts.
Why Hawaii Is On His Watch List
Kegges used past hurricane seasons as analog years to explain why Hawaii needs attention.
One of the main analogs he mentioned was 2015, when storms tracked near Hawaii even though there were no direct landfalls. He also pointed to 1997, another El Niño year, when strong storms passed east of the islands.
Those examples are not perfect copies of what will happen in 2026, and Kegges did not present them that way. Instead, he used them as clues, showing how a similar ocean and atmosphere setup can favor more activity in the central Pacific.
He also referred to a heat-map-style tool on Tropical Tidbits that uses sea surface temperature anomalies and model output to show where storm tracks may be favored. In his breakdown, the Atlantic looked much quieter, while the eastern and central Pacific showed much higher storm probability.
The contrast was sharp: deep blue in parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean, and red across large parts of the eastern and central Pacific.
That visual difference helps explain the title of his message. The 2026 hurricane season may not simply be “active” or “quiet.” It may be split, with the Pacific carrying more of the energy while the Atlantic struggles against El Niño’s hostile conditions.
That kind of season can feel strange because the national conversation often focuses heavily on the Atlantic. But for Hawaii and western Mexico, a Pacific-loaded year is not a side story.
A Look Back At Last Year’s Forecast
Kegges also reviewed his 2025 forecast and said he thought parts of it worked out well, while other parts missed.
He said he had placed a high chance for impacts in areas including the Yucatan, Cuba, the Gulf side of Florida, and the Carolinas. The Carolinas, he said, did see close brushes that caused major beach issues, and he also noted that one storm made landfall.
Kegges said his forecast for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas also lined up well, with storms affecting those areas after moving through or near Jamaica and Cuba.
He also said the Windward Islands had a lower-to-moderate shot in his outlook, and that worked out “pretty well” because storms tended to bend north.
But he admitted the Gulf part of the forecast did not work out as expected. Kegges said he had placed the north Gulf Coast and eastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Gulf Coast, in a high-impact zone last year, but the region ended up much quieter than he thought.
“It looked like we were going to get one of those homegrown storms,” he said, but hostile conditions stopped that from happening.
That honesty makes the 2026 outlook more useful. Weather forecasting is not about pretending every call was perfect; it is about showing the reasoning, checking it later, and adjusting when the atmosphere proves otherwise.
For 2026, Kegges’ main message is clear: El Niño is “the name of the game.” The Atlantic may be quieter, the Caribbean may be suppressed, and the Pacific may become the basin with the bigger story.
Still, he closed with the warning that everyone should prepare equally, no matter what color zone they fall into on a forecast map.
That is the part people should remember once hurricane season begins. A quieter pattern can lower the odds, but it does not remove the danger.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
