Meteorologist Max Schuster says the United States is entering a more active stretch of weather, with one storm system bringing severe weather late this week before a larger and potentially more powerful system develops over the weekend and pushes into the Midwest early next week.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the changing jet stream will allow several low-pressure systems and cold fronts to move across the northern and central Plains, the Midwest and eventually the Ohio Valley, creating repeated opportunities for severe thunderstorms as well as a sharp temperature swing behind the fronts.
He said the most important period begins Friday and continues through Monday, when a stronger storm moving out of the Rockies could bring severe weather from the Texas Panhandle into Wisconsin, along with mountain snow farther west.
“We are about to enter into an active stretch of weather,” Schuster said.
Friday Could Bring Tornadoes To The Upper Midwest
Thursday should be relatively quiet compared with what follows, although Schuster said isolated severe storms could still develop in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and the Mid-Atlantic, with damaging wind gusts the main concern.
By Friday, however, the setup becomes more favorable for organized severe weather across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Schuster said the Storm Prediction Center had already highlighted a slight risk stretching from Minnesota into Nebraska, with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes all possible.
A strengthening southwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere should increase wind shear, and Schuster said that could become important during the late afternoon and evening if storms are able to develop independently rather than immediately merging into a larger line.
He highlighted Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, the Dakotas and Nebraska as areas that should pay close attention.
The meteorologist said places around Duluth, Minneapolis and Watertown could see an isolated tornado risk, particularly between roughly 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Central time.
Schuster cautioned that there is still a limiting factor, because temperatures and dew points may not line up perfectly enough for storms to become strongly surface-based.
Even so, he said the combination of instability and wind shear is enough to make Friday a day worth watching carefully.
A Larger System Develops Over The Weekend
The first storm should begin lifting away on Saturday, possibly leaving behind only an isolated severe storm around Michigan, but Schuster said the bigger story will be the next system developing farther west.
By Sunday, he expects what he described as a “giant bowling ball” low-pressure system to move through the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies.
Forecast guidance showed the center of the low dropping to around 997 millibars, while cold air wrapping around the system could produce the first meaningful mountain snow of the season across parts of the northern Rockies.
At the same time, moisture will be pulled northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains.
That combination of stronger winds aloft, increasing moisture and a deepening low is why Schuster believes Sunday and Monday have a higher ceiling for significant severe weather than the earlier systems.
He said there are still too many details missing to call the event major, but he expects at least isolated to scattered severe storms from Wisconsin south toward the Texas Panhandle on Sunday.
This is the kind of forecast where the broad pattern is becoming clearer before the exact placement of the strongest storms is known, so the larger signal matters more than any one city-level prediction at this stage.
Monday Could Put The Midwest Under The Gun
As the weekend system moves east, Schuster said Monday could bring another round of severe weather into the Midwest.
He outlined a corridor stretching from around Milwaukee through parts of Iowa and Missouri and down toward Kansas City and Tulsa.
Damaging winds would likely be the main concern, although an isolated tornado threat could remain in the mix depending on how the storm system evolves.
By Tuesday, Schuster expects the system to weaken somewhat as it moves into the Appalachian region and Northeast, but he said the broader pattern will remain active because another storm may already be forming over the Rockies.
That repeated progression is what makes the next seven to ten days notable.
Rather than one isolated storm moving through and ending the pattern, Schuster expects several systems to follow the same general track, with each one pulling moisture north and dragging another cold front east.
He said anything beyond Monday and Tuesday remains much more uncertain, but the overall environment favors at least a few substantial storm systems through next week.
A Sharp Cold Front Follows Behind
The weather change will not be limited to thunderstorms.
Schuster said the Sunday and Monday system should drag a stronger cold front across the northern Plains and Midwest, sending temperatures down sharply behind it.
Parts of North Dakota and Minnesota may struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s during the afternoon as the colder air arrives, while overnight readings could fall into the 30s and 40s across parts of the northern Plains and Rockies.
That colder air should also be enough to support snow in higher elevations of the Northwest.
By Tuesday, Schuster said many areas in Wisconsin and Minnesota may only reach the 60s, with a few locations possibly staying below that threshold.
The Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast should remain noticeably cooler into Wednesday before temperatures begin to rebound in some areas.
Farther south, however, the heat will remain much harder to dislodge.
Dallas could still be near the upper 90s even as much cooler air settles over the northern half of the country, underscoring just how sharp the temperature contrast may become.
Heat Builds Again Before The Front Arrives
Before the stronger cold front moves through, Schuster said heat will build again Friday and Saturday across much of the central and southern Plains.
Dallas and other parts of Texas could remain above 100 degrees, while places such as Chicago and St. Louis climb back into the 80s.
That warmth ahead of the front is part of what could help fuel the weekend storm system.
When strong autumn-like air begins pressing into an area still holding summer heat and Gulf moisture, the result can be a much more active storm corridor.
Schuster said that pattern could establish itself from California through the Plains and toward Michigan, with repeated low-pressure systems tracking along the same zone.
It is an early sign that the atmosphere may be shifting away from the stagnant summer pattern and toward a more changeable fall setup.
Another Stronger Cold Shot May Follow
Schuster also said the first cool-down may not be the last.
European model guidance showed another potentially stronger blast of cold air arriving closer to the following weekend, with Minnesota possibly seeing widespread highs in the 50s around Sept. 20.
He stressed that forecasts that far out carry considerable uncertainty, but the broader signal suggests more cold fronts could continue moving through the northern United States as the month progresses.
That would keep the Midwest and northern Plains on a weather roller coaster, with warmth surging ahead of each storm and much cooler air following behind.
Schuster said the active pattern should continue through much of next week, with severe weather threats shifting eastward with each system while colder air repeatedly drops south behind them.
For now, Friday is the first important day to watch, especially across the Upper Midwest, but Schuster believes Sunday and Monday carry the greater potential for a more significant event.
The exact strength and placement of those storms will become clearer as the weekend approaches, but his overall message is that the quiet stretches between systems are about to get shorter as the jet stream becomes more active and multiple fronts begin moving across the country.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
