A rare September nor’easter could become one of the most unusual early-season storms to affect New England in decades, bringing several inches of rain, damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding and waves reaching 15 to 25 feet along parts of the Eastern Seaboard this weekend.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, said only about 1% of nor’easters occur during September, and most of those are connected to remnants of tropical systems. This storm, however, is developing independently of a tropical cyclone, making its timing particularly unusual.
Schuster said the last comparable non-tropical September nor’easter affecting the Northeast may date back to around 1940, near the beginning of the available record he was discussing.
“This is just very unusual,” he said.
And the nor’easter is only one part of an increasingly active weather pattern, with Hurricane Nolo threatening Hawaii, Hurricane Polo helping send tropical moisture toward the Southern Plains and a potentially powerful storm system developing over Texas and surrounding states by the middle of next week.
Saturday Brings the Worst of the Nor’easter
Schuster expects Saturday to bring some of the most intense conditions from the nor’easter as the storm churns offshore and sends strong easterly winds into New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
Southern New England will face the greatest combination of wind and rain, particularly around Boston, Cape Cod, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island.
Rainfall totals around Boston and southeastern Massachusetts could reach three to six inches, with localized amounts potentially exceeding that around places such as Quincy, Scituate and Marshfield.
Worcester could receive roughly two to three inches, while another area of heavier rainfall is expected around New York City, Philadelphia and the New Jersey coastline.
Schuster said coastal New Jersey could see two to five inches, while much of the surrounding region may receive between one and three inches.
The fact that the storm will linger is particularly important.
Instead of one quick burst of rain, repeated bands could continue through Sunday and even into Monday in parts of southern New England, increasing the chance that drainage systems and already saturated areas struggle to keep up.
Winds Could Knock Out Power Across Southern New England
The wind threat will build alongside the rain.
Schuster said gusts could reach roughly 60 to 70 mph in some areas of southern Connecticut and nearby portions of the region Saturday evening, while Long Island could also experience particularly strong winds around places such as Brookhaven and Southampton.
Boston and Cape Cod are expected to see gusts around 40 to 50 mph for portions of the weekend.
Offshore, winds could become even stronger.
Schuster showed projections approaching 70 mph over the water, and he said strong onshore flow will combine with high surf to produce coastal inundation.
Waves across parts of the Eastern Seaboard could reach 15 to 25 feet, although not all of those waves would directly strike shore at full height.
Even so, the prolonged push of water toward the coast could create problems well beyond one high-tide cycle.
Schuster expects at least isolated, and possibly scattered, power outages around parts of the Interstate 95 and Interstate 495 corridors as stronger wind gusts arrive.
By Sunday, the winds should begin easing somewhat, although gusts around 50 mph could remain possible near New York City and Philadelphia.
Coastal Flooding Could Continue Into Monday
The nor’easter is expected to make its closest approach to New Jersey by Sunday morning before gradually weakening.
That does not mean the coastal threat will immediately disappear.
Schuster said offshore winds near Boston and other parts of coastal Massachusetts could persist into Monday, continuing to push water toward shore and maintaining the possibility of coastal inundation.
He advised people to avoid beaches while the storm remains nearby.
By Monday, drier and cooler air should begin wrapping into Pennsylvania and New York, while southern New England continues dealing with some leftover rain.
The system should finally pull away toward Nova Scotia late Monday into Tuesday.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, Schuster expects conditions across the Northeast to become much calmer.
That will be a welcome change after a storm that, by his assessment, belongs to a tiny fraction of September weather events.
The exact historical comparison may depend on how the storm ultimately develops, but a non-tropical nor’easter of this strength in September is unusual enough that the timing alone deserves attention.
A Powerful Storm Could Form Over Texas Next Week
Once the Northeast storm moves away, attention may shift rapidly toward the central United States.
Schuster said moisture from Pacific hurricanes should begin surging northward Monday and Tuesday while another storm forms over the Rockies.
If those ingredients come together as projected, a large and potentially potent low-pressure system could organize over the Southern Plains by Wednesday.
One model showed pressure falling to around 992 millibars over the Texas Panhandle, something Schuster said would be highly unusual for the end of September.
He cautioned that it remains too early to determine exactly how strong the system will become because its development depends partly on what happens with Hurricane Polo.
Still, he said Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri should have a good chance of receiving rain.
Severe weather may also become possible Wednesday.
Because the atmosphere could contain unusually high amounts of moisture, Schuster warned that any tornadoes that develop could become rain-wrapped, making them much harder to see.
The severe-weather threat could then shift farther east Thursday, possibly reaching from Arkansas toward Chicago as the broader storm system moves across the country.
Schuster described the setup as potentially one of the first significant synoptic severe-weather systems in more than three months.
Cold Fronts Signal a More Serious Push Toward Fall
Alongside the storms, several cold fronts are expected to begin reshaping temperatures across the country.
Cooler air will remain across much of the Northeast through the weekend and into Monday, while unusually refreshing air could push deep into the Southeast.
Schuster said morning temperatures could fall into the mid-to-upper 60s as far south as Central Florida on Sunday and Monday.
Atlanta, Charleston and Orlando should all experience a noticeable taste of fall.
That break will not last everywhere.
Heat is expected to rebuild across the Southern Plains early next week, with St. Louis approaching 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday and Dallas climbing back near 95 on Tuesday.
Another front should then sweep through Texas and the Midwest around Wednesday and Thursday, bringing another meaningful temperature drop.
By the following weekend, Schuster said one or perhaps two stronger cold fronts could move across the Northern Plains and Midwest.
That may finally send overnight temperatures into the 30s and 40s in parts of the northern tier.
Sensitive vegetation could eventually face some risk of freezing temperatures during the opening days of October, although Schuster emphasized that it remains too early to identify exactly where freezes may occur.
The pattern increasingly looks like the atmosphere is moving away from summer rather than simply producing one temporary cool spell.
Hurricane Nolo Threatens Hawaii With Extreme Rainfall
The Pacific remains equally busy.
Hurricane Nolo is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii before turning sharply west, but Schuster said that turn will not spare the island from significant impacts.
The greatest danger will be rainfall.
Areas around Hilo could receive 20 to 30 inches through Saturday and Sunday, while parts of Maui may also receive several inches.
Near Hawaiian Ocean View, wind gusts could reach around 80 mph.
Nolo is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane south of the Big Island and could potentially reach Category 4 intensity later in the weekend.
Schuster said Hawaii is fortunate the storm is not continuing directly north toward the islands, because that could have created an even more destructive situation.
Even with the center remaining offshore, however, the rainfall alone could become dangerous.
With the Big Island’s mountainous terrain helping force tropical moisture upward, intense rain can concentrate quickly in some locations, raising concerns for flash flooding and mudslides.
Polo Adds Another Ingredient to the Mainland Forecast
Farther east in the Pacific, Hurricane Polo remains an important part of next week’s forecast.
Schuster said the Category 4 hurricane could regain Category 5 strength before eventually turning back toward Mexico.
Its most important effect on the continental United States may come through moisture rather than direct wind impacts.
As Polo moves northward, tropical moisture is expected to flow toward Texas and the broader Southern Plains, where it could interact with the developing midweek storm.
Another Pacific system, Hurricane Dallas, is also expected to become a major hurricane before stronger wind shear weakens it.
Taken together, the systems show just how active the atmosphere is becoming as September ends.
A rare nor’easter is battering the Northeast, Hawaii faces torrential tropical rainfall, Pacific hurricane moisture could help build a powerful Plains storm, and repeated cold fronts are preparing to push progressively deeper into the country.
Schuster described the coming period as a “wild weekend of weather,” but the activity will not stop with the weekend.
By the middle of next week, the focus may already have shifted from the historic-looking nor’easter to another major storm developing over the central United States, while the first stronger signs of fall begin settling across the northern half of the country.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
