October could open with flooding in the Southwest, another window for tropical development near the Gulf Coast and the first meaningful shots of early-season snow in the Rockies before a strengthening El Niño begins exerting more control over the nation’s weather later in the month.
Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges, host of the JustWeather YouTube channel, said his October 2026 outlook points to an active transition period as lingering Pacific hurricane moisture, unusually warm Gulf waters and several changing atmospheric patterns overlap.
“October could start off wild,” Kegges said, adding that by the end of the month, “the El Niño takeover is likely about to start.”
The shift will not produce the same weather everywhere. Much of the eastern United States may finish October warmer than normal overall, while the Southwest could begin the month unusually wet and parts of the Rockies and Northern Plains start seeing more convincing signs that winter is approaching.
Pacific Hurricanes Could Trigger Early-October Flooding
Kegges said one of his biggest concerns for the opening days of October is the Southwest, where moisture from an unusually busy eastern Pacific hurricane season could be pushed back into the United States.
He expects the atmosphere to become infused with moisture from multiple Pacific tropical systems, creating a period when flooding could become a concern across parts of the Southwest.
“The first couple of days of October, watching for the potential for some flooding,” he said.
The wet pattern could then continue more broadly across the southern tier as October progresses.
Kegges described that transition as something of a handoff between the Southwest monsoon pattern and the growing influence of El Niño, which typically alters the placement and strength of the jet stream as the colder months approach.
That makes early October particularly interesting because the atmosphere will not yet be fully locked into its winter pattern.
Instead, several influences may be competing at once.
Much of the East Could Stay Warmer Than Normal
Despite periodic cold fronts, Kegges expects a large part of the country to average relatively warm through October.
The Southeast stands out most strongly in his outlook, with above-normal temperatures favored there, while the Northeast also leans warmer when the entire month is averaged together.
That does not mean there will be no cold weather.
Kegges stressed that fronts will still sweep through and temporarily push temperatures below normal, but those cooler periods may not last long enough to outweigh the warmer stretches across much of the East.
The Intermountain West, Desert Southwest and part of the Southern Plains have a better chance of ending the month close to normal or even slightly cooler than average.
Alaska is expected to run warmer in several areas as well, while Hawaii may begin trending above normal.
It is the kind of monthly forecast that can sometimes sound contradictory at first: a warmer-than-normal October can still contain several sharp cold fronts.
The average simply reflects which side wins more often over the course of the month.
Early Snow Could Reach Lower Elevations
Those colder shots could become strong enough to produce early-season snow across portions of the West.
Kegges said snowfall in the higher Rockies would hardly be surprising by October, particularly after snow had already appeared around Pikes Peak during September.
More notable would be snow reaching some lower elevations in places such as Montana and Wyoming.
He believes that becomes more plausible as an increasingly active storm pattern develops deeper into the month.
The snow signal is not strong enough yet to pinpoint individual cities or accumulation amounts, but Kegges expects multiple opportunities for colder air to push south.
That fits with a broader pattern he described involving a positive Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA, which can favor ridging in the West and a trough farther east.
Such a setup can help dislodge cooler air while also supporting stronger storm systems.
Gulf Coast Gets One More Tropical Window
The Atlantic tropical season may be approaching a major turning point, but Kegges is not ready to completely dismiss the Gulf Coast during the first part of October.
He highlighted a greater-than-20% signal for tropical development during the opening portion of the month, tied partly to the expected passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.
Kegges described the MJO as a traveling region of enhanced thunderstorm activity that circles the globe roughly every 30 to 60 days.
When it moves into a favorable position, rising air can increase the odds that tropical disturbances organize if other ingredients cooperate.
During roughly the first seven to 10 days of October, Kegges expects the Gulf and nearby southwestern Atlantic to have a more favorable environment than the Caribbean.
Wind shear is the main reason.
He said the Caribbean should remain hostile to tropical development because stronger upper-level winds would tend to tear developing systems apart, while shear across parts of the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic may be closer to average or below average.
“If something’s going to get going, it would form here,” he said while highlighting that region.
Kegges believes this may represent one of the last meaningful threats for a land-impacting Atlantic system this season.
“If we dodge that bullet,” he said, “I do think that we have the opportunity to shut down the impact side of the season early.”
Short-lived systems could still form farther north or over the central Atlantic later in October or November, but he expects the risk to populated areas to decline substantially if nothing develops during that early-month window.
Warm Gulf Waters Could Still Fuel Severe Storms
October does not currently look like a particularly active severe-weather month overall.
Kegges said the stronger autumn severe-weather seasons across Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina are often associated with La Niña rather than the developing El Niño pattern expected this year.
Still, he is not ruling out severe thunderstorms entirely.
One reason is the Gulf of Mexico.
Kegges said water temperatures there are running roughly 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius, or around 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal in some areas.
That warm water can supply moisture and instability when storm systems pull Gulf air northward.
“If we have a shot, it’s going to be further south,” he said of the severe-weather potential.
The overall signal may be modest, but a strong enough cold front interacting with unusually warm, moisture-rich air could still create isolated periods of more significant storms.
That is another reason October may feel changeable rather than consistently calm.
El Niño Influence Should Strengthen Late in the Month
The larger story in Kegges’ outlook is what happens as October progresses.
A strengthening El Niño is expected to become increasingly influential, setting the stage for more noticeable changes by November and especially during December, January and February.
Across the southern United States, Kegges expects an active precipitation pattern to begin emerging as the atmosphere transitions away from the late-summer monsoon setup and toward a more recognizable El Niño configuration.
Hawaii may remain wet through October, but he expects the islands to turn much drier later in winter, particularly around January and February.
Kegges also expects the main area of tropical thunderstorm activity to shift increasingly toward the central and eastern Pacific during October, another development that would work against sustained Atlantic hurricane activity.
Taken together, the outlook suggests October will function as a bridge between seasons.
Summer warmth will remain stubborn across much of the East, yet colder fronts will increasingly push into the Rockies and Plains.
Pacific hurricanes may help produce flooding in the Southwest just as early snow becomes possible farther north.
And while the Gulf could still squeeze out one final tropical threat, the strengthening El Niño should increasingly reshape where storms develop and where moisture flows.
That transition is what makes the month difficult to reduce to a simple warm, cold, wet or dry forecast.
Kegges sees several competing forces at work early, followed by an atmosphere that should gradually become more recognizable as an El Niño pattern heading toward winter.
October, in other words, may begin with the weather pulling in several directions at once before the larger seasonal pattern finally starts taking control.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
