A strengthening El Niño could develop into what meteorologist Max Schuster described as a “super El Niño,” a shift he believes will continue reshaping U.S. weather through the opening weeks of September and may eventually have a major influence on the fall and winter storm track.
Schuster, host of Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, said the Pacific Ocean has warmed rapidly over the past couple of months and is moving toward territory comparable with the powerful 2015 El Niño, while the broader pattern is already showing up in very different ways across the country, from persistent Southern Plains heat to repeated severe-weather chances farther north and east.
He also linked the developing El Niño to the unusually active Pacific tropical season and the comparatively quiet Atlantic, although he cautioned that any Atlantic system able to overcome the current hostile conditions could still intensify quickly over very warm water.
Pacific Warming Is Driving The Bigger Pattern
Schuster began by stressing the difference between El Niño and La Niña and explaining that the current Pacific setup is moving deeper into El Niño territory.
He said sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have continued climbing and could soon reach record-breaking levels, which is why he believes the event is on track toward the “super El Niño” category.
The comparison he made most often was with 2015, when another very strong El Niño helped produce an unusual winter and a highly active Pacific hurricane season.
That same split is visible now, Schuster said, with multiple tropical systems and development areas across the Pacific while the Atlantic has produced only a handful of named storms so far.
He expects the Atlantic to remain relatively subdued because El Niño tends to increase upper-level wind shear there, while the Pacific benefits from warmer water, abundant moisture and a more favorable wind environment.
The contrast is striking because the same climate pattern can suppress tropical development in one basin while helping fuel it in another, and that broader imbalance is one of the clearest signs that El Niño is already affecting the atmosphere rather than remaining just an ocean-temperature story.
Heat Builds Again Across The Plains And Midwest
For the Lower 48, Schuster said one of the most important short-term effects will be the movement of the heat dome that has spent much of the summer centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest.
Texas, Oklahoma and parts of the Southwest have endured repeated stretches of triple-digit heat, while northwesterly flow has periodically brought cooler conditions into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast.
That balance is expected to change as September begins.
Schuster said the heat ridge should shift north and east into the Central Plains, lower Midwest and Tennessee Valley, bringing a significant temperature increase to areas that have recently enjoyed cooler weather.
Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa could run 25 to 30 degrees above average at times, while parts of the region from Oklahoma City north toward Minneapolis and Wisconsin may briefly reach anomalies of 30 to 35 degrees above normal.
Kansas City and St. Louis could remain roughly 25 to 30 degrees above average during the first few days of September.
A cold front may bring some relief to the Northern Plains around Tuesday or Wednesday, but Schuster expects much of the heat to hold farther south and east.
That makes the start of September look less like a clean seasonal transition and more like another extension of summer, even as the larger-scale pattern begins showing signs of change.
Severe Weather Could Return To The Northern Plains
As the heat dome shifts, Schuster expects the jet stream to lift north again, putting the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest back into a more active severe-weather corridor.
A new storm system is expected to form across the Northern Plains over the weekend, and Schuster said a few supercells could develop in the Dakotas, possibly bringing an elevated tornado risk depending on how the system evolves.
By Sunday and Monday, additional storms may spread through the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northeast.
He does not currently see one dominant, high-end storm system in the immediate forecast, but he believes larger systems may become more likely during the first and second weeks of September.
The GFS model, he said, has repeatedly hinted at stronger storm development over the first 10 to 15 days of the month, which could eventually bring more organized severe-weather risks along with more meaningful pushes of cooler air.
Schuster also mentioned the possibility of the first snow returning to parts of the Rockies if one of those deeper troughs develops.
That is still a lower-confidence, longer-range signal, and he stressed that forecasts beyond 10 days can change substantially, but it fits the broader idea that the atmosphere may become more amplified as summer gives way to fall.
Atlantic Stays Quiet, But One Storm Could Still Matter
While the Pacific remains packed with tropical activity, Schuster described the Atlantic as nearly “dead as a doornail” by comparison.
He said only one development area was being closely watched, with the possibility of Tropical Storm Dolly forming east of the Lesser Antilles.
At the same time, the Pacific had as many as seven tropical systems or areas of interest, including a potential Fujiwhara interaction in which two nearby low-pressure systems could rotate around each other.
Schuster attributed much of that imbalance to El Niño, which is creating stronger wind shear and drier air over the Atlantic while allowing the Pacific to remain much more favorable.
He did add one important warning: the Atlantic Ocean itself is still extremely warm.
Because of that, any tropical system that does manage to find a pocket of lower shear could strengthen rapidly and potentially become dangerous downstream.
For now, however, he said there were no major Atlantic concerns, and the next several days should remain much quieter there than across the Pacific.
The Bigger Shift May Arrive Later In September
Schuster believes the current heat pattern will eventually break down, but the timing remains uncertain.
He said the most likely mechanism would be one or two stronger storm systems that drive colder air farther south and finally dislodge the heat dome.
That may happen within a week or two, but model guidance remains inconsistent about exactly when the transition will occur.
The GFS keeps the heat wave in place longer before showing a stronger cold shot during the second week of September, while other model runs vary considerably from one update to another.
For the next week or two, Schuster’s expectation remains straightforward: heat builds across the Midwest and Ozarks, severe weather becomes more likely near the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, and the overall pattern stays active rather than settling down.
That kind of uncertainty is normal during a seasonal transition, but the strengthening El Niño adds another layer because it can help reorganize the storm track on a much larger scale.
El Niño Could Reshape Fall And Winter
Looking farther ahead, Schuster said he expects the storm track to shift south as El Niño strengthens into the fall and winter.
That could bring a more active pattern across the Southern Plains, Dixie Alley and eventually the East Coast, with repeated large storm systems becoming more common.
He was careful not to suggest that the Midwest or Northeast would stop seeing winter storms, but he expects the southern tier of the country to become more active than it has been under the current late-summer setup.
For Schuster, that is why the developing El Niño matters beyond the immediate heat and thunderstorm forecast.
The Pacific is already unusually warm, the hurricane basins are behaving very differently from one another, and the U.S. jet stream is beginning to show signs of the larger pattern change that could become much more important as September progresses.
Whether the event ultimately reaches the strongest “super El Niño” levels is something that will become clearer with time, but Schuster’s message was that the atmosphere is already responding, and the effects could become more noticeable rather than less as fall approaches.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
