Meteorologist Max Schuster says June is opening with a sharp shift in the weather pattern, and the first week of the month could bring a mix of severe storms, big temperature swings, drought concerns, and eventually dangerous heat across parts of the United States.
In a new forecast for the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, Schuster said the country is moving into a more active setup after what he described as a quieter end to May in many areas, with severe weather chances expected to return across the Great Plains, Midwest, and possibly parts of the East as the week unfolds.
“June is going to be starting out with a bang,” Schuster said, pointing to a pattern that could allow the atmosphere to reload several times rather than producing just one short-lived round of storms.
A Major Pattern Change Is Setting Up June
Schuster said the key feature driving the forecast is the jet stream, which he described as the system that controls broad weather patterns across the United States.
According to his forecast, the country has been under an Omega block weather pattern, where two large upper-level low pressure systems sit on either side of a strong ridge over the central and eastern United States. That kind of setup can suppress stronger storm systems from moving over the Rockies, which is one reason the last part of May did not produce the same kind of widespread severe weather events that often happen during the month.
Schuster explained that many classic severe weather setups need cold air higher in the atmosphere mixing with warm, moist air from the south. When strong systems move over the Rockies, that clash can help create larger, more dangerous storm events, but he said that kind of pattern had been limited in recent weeks.
The interesting part of this forecast is not just that storms are expected, but that the larger pattern appears to be shifting right as June begins. That matters because early summer can be a strange weather bridge, where spring-style severe storms are still possible even as summer heat starts building fast.
Schuster said the first week of June will likely keep some form of the Omega block in place, though with changes that could open the door to severe storms in new areas, especially farther north.
Severe Weather Threats Begin The Week
For Monday, Schuster said the severe weather threat is expected to grow in size, with at least two possible lines of thunderstorms being watched.
One line may develop around Tennessee and Kentucky before moving into parts of Dixie Alley, where damaging winds and a low tornado risk could exist. Another, more notable line of storms could develop across the central Plains near Denver, Colorado, before pushing across areas where damaging wind gusts could become the main concern.
Schuster said wind gusts could reach 60 to 80 mph in some storms across the central Plains, though he added that a derecho does not appear likely at this point. Still, he did not fully rule out the possibility if the setup becomes more organized.
Large hail may also be possible, especially with the first storms that form before they merge into a line. Schuster said the tornado threat appears lower overall, but he noted that a couple of tornadoes could still happen in Dixie Alley depending on how the storms evolve.
That is one of the harder parts of early summer severe weather. A forecast can look like a wind event for most of the day, then one or two storms can stay separate long enough to create a very different threat for a smaller area. That is why these setups can be frustrating for forecasters and dangerous for people who assume “low risk” means “no risk.”
The Northern Plains Could See Their First Bigger Push
By Tuesday, Schuster said the severe weather risk is expected to shift farther north across the Great Plains, with an upper-level low pressure system appearing across the Dakotas.
That setup could bring a higher-end threat of severe weather with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible, according to Schuster. Storms may first fire around Montana during the afternoon, producing wind and hail, with a tornado or two possible early in the storm cycle.
As the day continues, those storms may cluster together and create a broader damaging wind threat across North Dakota, South Dakota, and even into Saskatchewan in Canada.
Schuster said this northern shift is important because southwesterly flow is expected to intensify across the central and northern Plains, which may open the window for severe weather to return to places such as North Dakota, South Dakota, and the Upper Midwest.
For cities and areas including Minneapolis, Sioux Falls, and parts of the Upper Midwest, Schuster said this may be the time to start reviewing severe weather plans as the jet stream gradually lifts north.
That is a practical warning, and it is worth noting because June severe weather often feels different from April and May. The focus can move away from the traditional southern storm zones and closer to the northern Plains and Midwest, where long-track wind events, hail storms, and fast-moving nighttime systems can still cause serious damage.
Midwest, Plains, And Great Lakes Stay On Watch
Schuster said Wednesday and Thursday could keep parts of the Midwest and Plains active, though the details are still uncertain.
By June 3 and 4, he expects a large ridge to remain across the southern Plains, with weaker southwesterly flow. That could keep severe weather threats more focused around the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and Kansas, while areas farther north may still have a favorable environment.
Schuster specifically named Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan as places that could see more active weather around the middle of the week.
At the same time, he said the East Coast is likely to stay mostly protected from severe weather through at least the first few days of June because strong northerly winds will keep cooler air in place across the Northeast. Thunderstorms may still happen, but Schuster said severe weather appears highly unlikely there early in the month.
By Wednesday, the low pressure system is expected to continue moving north and northeast. Schuster said he does not currently expect anything “too crazy” in the Midwest because strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes could create sinking air, which tends to limit storm development.
Even so, he said severe weather could continue across the central Plains and back into the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with all hazards possible.
A Small Tropical Signal, But Low Odds
Schuster also mentioned a low chance of something tropical trying to develop around the first few days of June, though he stressed that the odds appear very low.
If anything does form, he said it could kick up waves and cause localized flooding along immediate coastal areas, with Cape Hatteras appearing to be the main area to watch.
That part of the forecast is not the main story right now, but it is a reminder that June can be a messy month on the weather calendar. Severe weather season is still going in the Plains and Midwest, heat starts building over land, and the tropics begin to matter again, even if most early signals never become major systems.
Schuster’s bigger concern remains the storm track across the Plains and Midwest, especially as the second week of June approaches and troughs may begin ejecting over the Rockies again.
He said that kind of setup should lead to more thunderstorm activity, particularly for the Midwest, while the severe risk may gradually become more common across the central and northern Plains.
Drought, Cool Air, Then A Surge Of Heat
While severe storms are a major focus, Schuster also pointed to dry conditions in the Midwest as a growing concern.
According to his forecast, parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley may see very little rain through June 5, with many areas expected to receive anywhere from nothing to about half an inch. He said St. Louis and Minneapolis may have better chances of seeing more meaningful rainfall, but the overall signal is not encouraging for places already drying out.
That is one of the more important parts of the forecast because severe weather often gets the attention, but drought can quietly become the bigger story. A week with little rain, followed by stronger heat, can change soil conditions quickly and put stress on lawns, crops, and water demand before summer is even fully established.
Temperature swings will also be a major part of the first half of June.
Schuster said the southern Plains will be hot, which is expected for the season, but the Ohio Valley and Northeast should stay surprisingly pleasant for the first few days of the month. Many areas may see lows in the 50s and low 60s, while some interior parts of the Northeast could dip into the 40s because of strong northerly flow from Canada.
By Thursday or Friday, temperatures should begin to rise again across the Great Plains, with much of the Midwest returning to the 70s and 80s. Schuster said Chicago and Detroit could get back into the 70s around that time.
Then the bigger heat signal appears by the second week of June.
Schuster warned that extreme heat may return to the United States, with temperatures near Wichita, Kansas, possibly reaching around 105 degrees by June 8. Some areas near Alva, Buffalo, and Woodward could approach 110 degrees, according to his forecast.
The overall message from Schuster is that June is not easing in quietly. The month may begin with severe storms, shift storm chances north, keep some areas dry, and then bring major heat back into the Plains.
For people in the central and northern Plains, the Midwest, and nearby regions, the forecast is not just about watching one storm system. It is about paying attention to a larger pattern that may keep changing, reloading, and producing new hazards as the first half of June unfolds.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
