Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges says the weather pattern across the United States is about to make another major turn, pushing heat out of the Northeast while setting up a much wetter and stormier stretch for parts of the Southern Plains.
In a new JustWeather update, Kegges said the pattern is “about to do a 180 and flip back,” meaning the burst of heat that recently built through the I-95 corridor will not last much longer. At the same time, he said Texas and nearby states could be heading into a rain-heavy setup that may help the drought, but not without a serious risk attached.
“Drought-busting rain is coming, but it could come at the flooding cost,” Kegges said.
That is the tricky part of this setup. Rain is badly needed in several southern states, but when a dry region suddenly gets several rounds of heavy rain, the ground often cannot handle it all at once. What starts as helpful can quickly turn into runoff, flooded roads, and rising creeks if the same areas keep getting hit.
Kegges said much of the country will be hanging out below normal by the end of the week, even as warmth begins to build again along the West Coast and eventually back toward the interior West.
Heat Leaves The Northeast
According to Kegges, the warmth still holds across parts of the I-95 corridor for a time, but the broader pattern is already changing.
He pointed to a temperature map showing colder-than-normal air, shaded in blues and purples, settling across large parts of the country while the West Coast begins to warm again. By the time the pattern reaches the Memorial Day weekend period, Kegges said warmer-than-normal temperatures should build from the interior Mountain West up toward Hudson Bay.
At the same time, he said cooler air will slide back toward the Southwest, where relief from heat would be welcome.
For the Northeast, the message is simple: the heat is not locked in. The same region that has dealt with unusually warm weather will see that warmth back off as the jet stream shifts and cooler air spreads farther east.
Kegges said places like Pittsburgh could sit in the low 70s, while Detroit stays in the mid-60s. By Friday, he said some of that cooler air expands farther east, with Detroit still in the mid-60s and Little Rock in the upper 70s.
Those numbers are not extreme on their own, but they show how much the pattern is changing. After a hot spell, even a normal or slightly cool day can feel like a real reset.
A Wavy Jet Stream Drives The Change
Kegges said the jet stream is the main reason behind the coming flip.
He pointed to a dip in the jet stream pushing toward Colorado, which is helping bring stormy and even snowy weather into parts of the Four Corners region, Wyoming, Colorado, and northern Arizona. He joked that some areas have had more snow in May than they saw in the winter months, asking where all that snow had been earlier in the season.
That late-season snow will help a little with groundwater and mountain snowpack, Kegges said, but he cautioned that it will not erase the larger dry pattern by itself.
Still, it is notable to see another round of snow as May winds down. Kegges said higher elevations west of Denver could see 6 to 12 inches, with some spots possibly getting a foot to a foot and a half.
“Certainly it is going to be welcomed,” Kegges said, adding that it is needed even if it comes “a little too little too late.”
The same wavy jet stream bringing cold pockets and mountain snow is also setting up a very active southern storm track. Kegges said a subtropical jet stream is already showing signs of a developing El Niño-style pattern, with Pacific moisture blasting across the southern tier of the country.
That kind of setup can be fascinating from a weather standpoint because it links distant parts of the country together. Moisture from the Pacific does not just stay out West; it can feed storms all the way into Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Mississippi Valley.
Texas Faces A Flooding Concern
The biggest concern in Kegges’ report is the Southern Plains, especially Texas.
Kegges said an excessive rainfall outlook already shows a level two out of four risk from around San Antonio toward Dallas-Fort Worth, then into parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. He said that corridor has the best chance for flash flooding, and he expects the threat area to expand closer to the Gulf Coast over the next several days.
The rainfall footprint, according to Kegges, stretches from southeast of Dallas through Houston and then back toward places like Nashville. In the darkest red and purple areas on the forecast map, he said totals over the next week could reach 5 to 7 inches, with some spots possibly seeing 8 or 9 inches.
That is enough rain to make a major difference in drought conditions, but it is also enough to create trouble if it falls in repeated waves.
Kegges said Texas has been “chipping away” at its drought in recent weeks, but he expects the drought map to change significantly over the next week to 10 days. The danger is that the state often swings from one problem to another, going from dry ground to heavy runoff when too much rain arrives too quickly.
“As what we typically do in Texas, we build up this big drought and then we go too far in the other direction,” Kegges said.
That line captures the whole issue. The rain is needed, but the timing and intensity matter just as much as the total.
Wave After Wave Of Rain
Kegges said the rainfall threat is not expected to come from one single storm and then end. Instead, he described a pattern where disturbances move out of the Pacific, spin across the Southwest and Southern Plains, and then lift northeast over the same broad region.
Future radar, according to Kegges, shows heavy rain lifting through Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas by Friday morning, with more rounds continuing behind it.
That repeated nature is what makes this setup worth watching closely. One thunderstorm complex may cause street flooding in a few places, but several rounds over the same area can turn into a much bigger concern, especially if rain falls at night or over places that have already become saturated.
Kegges said the active track may be good news in the long term if it continues into the fall and winter, because more moisture across the Desert Southwest, the Four Corners, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida would help prevent another major drought from building.
But in the short term, the concern remains flooding.
He said the rain threat continues well beyond the first few days, with longer-range outlooks showing even higher totals through the period after Memorial Day weekend. Places he mentioned for possible flooding include Brownsville, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Houston, Little Rock, Shreveport, parts of Mississippi, Nashville, and Lexington, Kentucky.
A Wild Pattern With Real Benefits And Risks
Kegges’ forecast is not just about colder air or heavier rain. It is about a pattern that is becoming more active across several regions at once.
The Northeast loses its heat. The West begins to warm. The mountains get late-season snow. The Southern Plains and Gulf Coast pick up repeated rounds of rain. The jet stream remains wavy, and Pacific moisture keeps feeding into the southern United States.
That is why this setup feels so busy. It is not one weather story; it is several connected stories moving through the same pattern.
Kegges said the developing subtropical jet stream may be an early sign of the El Niño influence that he expects to take shape more clearly later in the year. For now, it is already helping deliver moisture into areas that need it, though the flooding risk means people in the Southern Plains should not treat the rain as harmless just because drought has been a problem.
The most important takeaway from Kegges’ report is balance. This rain can help, especially in Texas, but too much of it in a short time can create a different kind of emergency.
For a country that has already seen sharp swings from heat to chill and drought to heavy rain, this next pattern flip is another reminder that weather does not always change gently. Sometimes it snaps back hard, and Kegges says this is one of those setups he is watching closely.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
