Meteorologist Max Schuster says a major severe weather pattern is beginning to take shape across the United States, with the most concerning stretch arriving this weekend and continuing into next week as instability, wind shear, and multiple storm systems line up from the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
In his latest forecast for Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, Schuster said the pattern could become one of the most active severe weather periods since April, with several days of storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.
For readers seeing this forecast on Wednesday, May 13, the main focus now turns to the rest of the week, the weekend, and early next week, when Schuster said the setup may become far more serious.
Severe Weather Chances Start Building Again
Schuster said the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined two separate days, Saturday and Sunday, for the risk of significant severe weather, and he warned that both days could bring problems across large parts of the country.
Saturday’s threat, according to Schuster, stretches from Texas into Iowa and Nebraska, with damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes possible mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
But Sunday is the day that caught his attention the most.
Schuster said Sunday has the potential to become a more notable severe weather outbreak, with all hazards on the table from Oklahoma into Wisconsin. He said that day may feature a stronger low pressure system, which would likely bring stronger wind shear and a more favorable environment for organized severe thunderstorms.
“I do think Sunday is a day that we need to watch for closely,” Schuster said, specifically mentioning areas near Chicago, southern Wisconsin, central Oklahoma, and southern Oklahoma as places that should monitor the forecast closely.
The exact shape of the threat will still depend on storm timing and how organized the system becomes, but Schuster said the risk area could grow in future outlooks.
Wednesday And Thursday Are Lower-End, But Not Empty
Before the bigger weekend threat arrives, Schuster said there are still a few lower-end severe weather chances to watch through midweek.
For Wednesday, he pointed to a risk of isolated severe storms in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, including Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia. He said the main concerns would be downburst damaging winds and hail, with only a very low, nonzero tornado risk.
Schuster also mentioned another possible severe storm risk in parts of Idaho, Montana, Utah, and perhaps Wyoming, though he framed that as a lower-end setup as well.
By Thursday, Schuster said the severe weather risk appears fairly low overall, though he is watching for at least a small chance of isolated hail storms in Kansas. He also said a storm system moving from the Pacific Northwest into Canada may help produce isolated severe storms in Minnesota Thursday afternoon, with the threat possibly continuing into Wisconsin Thursday evening.
Late Thursday into early Friday, Schuster said there could even be overnight hail storms in parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, a timing concern because people may be asleep when storms develop.
That is a smaller threat compared with the weekend, but it still matters because nighttime storms can catch people off guard, especially if they are mainly expecting the weather to become active later.
Friday Could Be A Sneaky Severe Weather Day
Schuster said Friday may become the first day that deserves close attention, even though the Storm Prediction Center had not outlined a formal severe weather risk for it at the time of his forecast.
He called Friday a “conditional risk,” meaning the ingredients for significant severe weather may be present, but storms may not form unless enough lift can break through the cap.
A weak surface low is expected to develop in Texas and Oklahoma by Friday evening, according to Schuster. If storms can initiate in that environment, he said there could be a high chance of significant severe weather, including very large hail and possibly a tornado threat.
The European model, he said, was showing at least the possibility of a couple of supercells forming in Oklahoma, Kansas, or Texas.
That kind of conditional setup can be tricky. Sometimes the cap holds and very little happens, but if only a few storms break through, they can become intense quickly because they have a rich environment to work with.
Schuster also said parts of the Midwest should not ignore Friday night, because storms could develop late Friday into early Saturday with damaging wind gusts and a very low-end tornado potential, possibly continuing into Saturday morning around Ohio.
Saturday Brings A More Organized Threat
By Saturday, Schuster said the storm system should become more organized over Texas and Oklahoma, with the low-level jet increasing and storm activity becoming more scattered to numerous.
That means storms are more likely to form than on Friday, and the severe weather risk should expand.
Schuster said Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri look especially favorable for severe weather Saturday, with all hazards possible. He emphasized damaging winds and hail as the main threats, but said an isolated tornado threat will exist, especially around Oklahoma.
The Saturday risk is important because it may act as the first stronger wave in a multi-day setup. Even if Sunday ends up being the bigger event, Saturday could still bring serious storms, and people in the Plains should not wait until the last minute to prepare.
Schuster’s broader message was that this is not a one-day pattern. Instead, it is a long stretch of active May weather, with several chances for storms to organize and move across populated areas.
Sunday Could Become The Biggest Severe Weather Day
Sunday remains the day Schuster sounded most concerned about, even while acknowledging that there are still question marks about the exact scale and intensity of the event.
Right now, he said many models show a messy setup, which could limit how organized the severe weather becomes. But if the storm system over the central Plains becomes more organized, Schuster said there could be a legitimate risk of a severe weather outbreak.
The European model, he said, shows a 990-millibar low pressure system in southwestern Kansas by around Sunday evening, which Schuster described as very intense and organized.
That kind of setup could support several tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail, especially if the timing of the trough, moisture, and instability lines up correctly.
“If you live anywhere across the southern central Plains or even in the Midwest, you really need to be paying attention to the weather really closely,” Schuster said.
He said the highest risk area Sunday may extend from Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa back into Texas and Oklahoma, with all hazards on the table and a more elevated tornado risk possible depending on timing.
This is the kind of forecast that should be taken seriously but not treated as locked in. Schuster was careful to say details may change, but his concern is clearly increasing because the pattern has enough ingredients to produce something significant.
Monday May Continue The Severe Weather Threat
Schuster said the Sunday system may transition into a significant storm across the Midwest overnight into Monday morning, with severe weather continuing into Monday afternoon and evening.
That next round could stretch from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley back into Texas and Louisiana, bringing more damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes.
He described Monday as partly the “leftovers” of Sunday’s severe weather system, but that does not mean it would be harmless. Sometimes the day after a major Plains threat can bring another round of strong storms farther east, especially when the same system pushes into more populated regions.
Schuster said Tuesday into Wednesday of next week becomes more uncertain, though one model suggested another weak low pressure system over Arkansas that could create a tornado risk in the Mississippi River Valley. Because that part of the forecast is still five to seven days away, he stressed that confidence is lower.
Even with those uncertainties, Schuster said one thing looks much more certain: the last two weeks of May appear likely to be hyperactive, with repeated chances for severe storms.
A Pattern Built For Repeated Storm Systems
Schuster said the European model shows several storm systems ejecting over the Rockies, which would likely bring multiple severe weather opportunities across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.
He also pointed to the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook showing above-normal rainfall chances over the next seven to 10 days across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, with below-average chances on the West Coast and immediate East Coast.
According to Schuster, this pattern is being driven by a large upper-level low pressure system that should help send multiple disturbances into the Plains.
In simple terms, the atmosphere is setting up in a way that keeps reloading. Moisture, instability, and wind energy may not be limited to one storm day, and that raises the odds of repeated severe weather episodes.
That is why Schuster repeatedly urged viewers to keep up with daily forecast updates. The exact details for each severe weather day may shift, but the larger signal points toward a much more active pattern.
Preparation Matters Before The Weekend Arrives
Schuster’s forecast does not call for panic, but it does call for attention.
For people in the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually parts of the South, the next several days are a good time to review severe weather plans, make sure phones can receive alerts, and know where to go if a tornado warning is issued.
The concern is not only tornadoes. Very large hail can damage vehicles and roofs, while destructive wind gusts can knock out power and bring down trees, especially if storms organize into larger clusters or lines.
Schuster said Sunday may have the highest ceiling for a severe weather outbreak, but Saturday and Monday could also become significant depending on how the pattern evolves.
That is the key takeaway from his forecast. The biggest storm period of May may still be ahead, and while every detail is not settled yet, the overall setup is active enough that people in the risk zones should not treat this as just another round of spring rain.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
